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BB Global (English) > The usual OMG how did I lose that thread...4

The usual OMG how did I lose that thread...4

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314804.20 in reply to 314804.19
Date: 5/29/2022 7:15:04 PM
Częstochowskie Lwy
PLK
Overall Posts Rated:
273273
Second Team:
Young Lions
(120534352)
That's my personal best so far. How come?!?

In my simulations the home team won 92.5% of the time. Is that just bad luck?

Thanks for response - really appreciate that.
But taking above into account: there was absolutely no element of the game that could drive these 7.5% of results (rebounds were neutralized by turnovers [flow]).
My point is: How should we read the stats vs win probability? Is it like average of all results or just despite the diff in points probability coming from stats the opponent had a lot of luck with shots made while i had a lot of bad luck?

From: Djstra
This Post:
22
314804.30 in reply to 314804.28
Date: 6/1/2022 10:11:19 AM
Djstra
II.2
Overall Posts Rated:
3737
What bad luck means is that probability of making shots is high for home team but as a result he didn't actually make them. GE calculated probability given both sides parameters but in the end you turn the chance into making the shot or not.

The explanation given by BBjustin is not very convincing. We need luck to bring some surprise into tight games and give weaker teams hope. But that game, the home team had huge advantage on almost every aspect except rebounds(as a result he gained a fewer but no more than 10 off rebs), and it can be such a disappointment for the home team.

After all, we are playing manager game instead of rolling a dice. There's no reason to have such a better team lose no matter what. What if It's the final that determines the whole seasons efforts? It will only bring doubt about the design of GE or badly beat users' confidence of knowledge about this game.

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