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BuzzerBeater NBA Predictions > Hornets @ Trailblazers (11/28/2008)

Hornets @ Trailblazers (11/28/2008)

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61813.64 in reply to 61813.63
Date: 12/5/2008 4:54:45 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.21
Overall Posts Rated:
88
at present i have actually completely ignored the question of game shape.. and set it equal and average for all players.

I guess in my mind I was thinking of using it as a way to model the effects of having back to back road games... or such effects.. and maybe have them be differential on age.. for instance Shaq plays better with more rest.

One could even conceive of trying to model each player individually with respect to game shape.

Honestly though I see game shape as a more minor component of real life variance. For the vast majority of times when a player has a bad night its not because he is tired per say... thats not to say his poor performance was a fluke of statistics.. meaning if he had taken the same shots and boxed out people with the same vigor he might have gotten many more points and rebounds. However, I dont know if there is any hope in being able to model those fluxuations.. beyond considering the specific opponent he is facing on that night.

For instance.. a follower of New Orleans might have concluded that David West had a poor Game Shape versus Portland, or Elton Brand had a poor game shape versus LA. However, my simulation suggests that you only needed to consider the defensive ratings of his opponent to explain much of their poor performance, as I didnt module their ratings or game shape for either game.

Game Shape i think serves a very different and important role in buzzerbeater the game because it is one more strategic decision managers have to make... do i play my best players a lot this game and reap benefit now at the cost of them being tired later.. or do I save their energy for later. I think you need only look at the substitution patterns in the NBA to tell that this is not a decision which NBA coaches and managers make on a regular basis, except with a few players such as Shaq. Certaintly not to the extent Buzzerbeater managers do or MLB baseball managers do.

Last edited by BB-Forrest at 12/5/2008 4:58:19 PM

From: toddy
This Post:
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61813.65 in reply to 61813.64
Date: 12/5/2008 11:52:40 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
00
that makes a lot of sense.

have you guys considered trying to model something on a player by player basis that does intentionally introduce variance? i mean like something in the background that managers can't see that effects the player's performance somewhat randomly. like a way to model a player being "hot" or "cold"? for BB, not for the NBA simulation obviously.

This Post:
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61813.66 in reply to 61813.11
Date: 12/8/2008 4:30:32 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
00
it ok

This Post:
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61813.67 in reply to 61813.1
Date: 12/25/2008 5:48:34 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
159159
can i see james poseys skills?

*no bird soars too high, if he soars with his own wings* - william blake
This Post:
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61813.68 in reply to 61813.67
Date: 12/28/2008 10:39:55 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
159159
please?

*no bird soars too high, if he soars with his own wings* - william blake
This Post:
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61813.69 in reply to 61813.68
Date: 12/29/2008 1:15:59 AM
1986 Celtics
IV.21
Overall Posts Rated:
88
Jump Shot: strong Jump Range: sensational
Outside Def.: average Handling: mediocre
Driving: respectable Passing: inept
Inside Shot: prominent Inside Def.: average
Rebounding: respectable Shot Blocking: pitiful
Stamina: average Free Throw: prominent

This Post:
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61813.70 in reply to 61813.69
Date: 12/29/2008 7:36:42 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
159159
thank you
i hope that doesnt sound too critical but i thought that posey is one of the best defenders in the nba. so why is he only avarage in ID and OD?

*no bird soars too high, if he soars with his own wings* - william blake
This Post:
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61813.71 in reply to 61813.70
Date: 12/29/2008 7:46:18 AM
1986 Celtics
IV.21
Overall Posts Rated:
88
http://www.82games.com/ilardi2d.htm

cause i need a systematic rating system

This Post:
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61813.72 in reply to 61813.71
Date: 12/29/2008 7:54:01 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
159159
ok its good to use that as your base for the players skills even though its not perfect;)

*no bird soars too high, if he soars with his own wings* - william blake
From: Vycka
This Post:
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61813.73 in reply to 61813.71
Date: 12/29/2008 2:56:35 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
00
Maybe you can try simulate more games ? I think that be much more interesting to watch results ;)

From: yonic8
This Post:
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61813.74 in reply to 61813.11
Date: 1/3/2009 4:54:48 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
00
Good game! your'e good inb that! Keep doing that!

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