BuzzerBeater Forums

Hi! Since I didn't invest in last season's draft, I'm not very familiar with new draft system. I wanted to ask people to share their experience from last season's draft and to present my view on drafting strategy. Of course you can't eliminate luck from it completely, but with some calculcations of probability I think you can narrow down your choices as much as possible.

Since the text is a bit long, you can jump to second post for "summary".

So my situation is this: I promoted to III.league, where I plan to be 6th (to have two home games in relegation matches). I'm investing 40k in draft because I want to get at least two really good picks. I'm training guards, so I'm looking for height 6'4'' (193 cm) and lower. So how can I spend as little scouting points as possible to get as much information out of it?

There's 48 players in my draft. Ideally I want to know their height, age and skills. This costs 3 points per draftee (1 for "Scouted once" and 2 for "Interviewed". But since we don't have 144 points available (currently I have 24), I'll try to narrow it down with different methods.

There's two group options, "Scouting combine" and "Group demonstration". What's advantage of one and the other?

1st option- Scouting combine: for 10 points, I learn two of the three things I need: age and height. Since reports from last season's draft say there's more 19-year olds (which I really don't want) than 18-year olds, let's say this option reveals 20 18-year-olds and 28 19-year-olds. Of those 20 youngsters, I'm sure there will be at least 8-10 players with desired height. So I'm left with appr. 10 players to scout. Since using Scouting combine doesn't count as "Scouted once", I still have to spend 30 points to see those 10 players, which nets 40 points (10 for Scouting combine and 3 x 10 for 10 draftees).

2nd option- Group demonstration: for 10 points, I learn skills of 2-ball and 1-ball players from rough estimates or "word on the street". I have 19 such players in my draft. Since Group demonstration is same as "Scouted once", I need only 2 more points per player to see their age and height. According to reports of last seasons' draft, group demonstration give you approximately 4-6 4 and 5 ball-rated draftees. So on those 6 players, I can spend 12 points (2 per draftee) and for 22 points, I have 19 players covered. But noone says out of those 6, I will see any 18-year olds. As a matter of fact, they can be all 19-year olds.

So scouting combine is 40 points to narrow it down as much as possible (I get to see 10 players I'm interested in), while group demonstration is 22 points for 19 players. So after Group demonstration, there is still 29 players to see. What if I use both Scouting combine and Group demonstration?

So if I spend 22 points first for Group demonstration and then another 10 for Scouting combine, I get to see the other 29 player's age and heights. Let's say from those 29, I will like 8. So I have to spend another 8 x 3 = 24 points to see those 8 players. That's 22 + 10 + 24 = 56. That's an awful lot of points, but in this way I absolutely see every guard on draft I want.

3rd optionHowever, if first I use both group options, what do I get for 20 points? Well, I get age, height and skills of 19 players (skills from "Scouted once" option, which is not as informative as "Interviewed" and only age and height of other 29 players. If, as before, I like heights and ages of 8 players out of 29 and spend 3 points per player, this means 20 + 24 = 44.

So approximately 40 points (or even more) from first option, 56 from second option and 44 from third option. Here of course, third option includes only rough estimates which can't compare with "Interviewed" option.

Last edited by Koperboy at 11/17/2010 8:09:35 AM

Summary:

1st option (Scouting combine + interview):

- learn age and height of 48 players
- interview of appx. 10 players
POINTS: 40

2nd option (Group demonstration + interview)

- learn skills from "Scouted once" of 19 players
- interview of appx. 6 players

POINTS: 22

3rd option (Scouting combine + Group demonstration + interview)

- learn age, height and skills from "Scouted once" of 19 players
- interview of appx. 8 players

POINTS: 44

So based on your experience from last season's draft and these options, what's your advice? How can you minimize luck factor in draft?

Thanks for the replies!

I was pretty successful using Group Demonstration + Scouting Combine and then interviewing all 18-year olds with 5-star and ultimately a couple of 4-stars as well. That would need close to 40 total scouting points.

Major advantage is that it allows you to draft a decent player you know everythign about. The natural disadvantage that comes with that is that you only reveal half of the draft class so you may miss some great prospects, but there's always risk involved.

If I'd have more points to spend, I'd go for unscouted 18ys with a nice height/position combination.

I was pretty successful using Group Demonstration + Scouting Combine and then interviewing all 18-year olds with 5-star and ultimately a couple of 4-stars as well. That would need close to 40 total scouting points.

Major advantage is that it allows you to draft a decent player you know everythign about. The natural disadvantage that comes with that is that you only reveal half of the draft class so you may miss some great prospects, but there's always risk involved.

If I'd have more points to spend, I'd go for unscouted 18ys with a nice height/position combination.

But wait, Group Demonstration reveals only rough estimates. Have you interviewed also them or was a rough estimate+age+height of 19 players enough for you?

You say you interviewed all 18-year olds, but in the last sentence you say you'd go for unscouted 18ys...so you didn't scout all 18 year olds?

He said he interviewed all 18 years old ranked 30-48 (1-2 ball prospects) who turned out 5 ball after group demonstration. Then I believe he used remaining points to scout unknown skills 18 yo with good height from those ranked 1-29 who didn't do group demonstration. You hope to find a good one early so you still have enough points to interview him and find out his potential.

Aha I see, I must have missed that.

I think I will use Scouting combine when available and then see how many 18-year olds under 6' 4'' there are. If I have enough points to interview them all, I will not use Group demonstration at all. By end of season, I think I should have 48 scouting points available.

I kind of overlooked that "scouting combine" itself doesnt give me the opportunity to interview a players right after. That is not a good news. But still seems like a best choice to do both. If there is a need to get 18y olds and with best height, is not possible to do it other way.

So after I got like 15 points now, I raise my investment only to 20k p/w which gives me 30 points totally at the end. That means I can do both and interview 5 players. The rest will be on my guess and luck.

I think that the best way isnt to spend as much money as possible, but to get most from minimal investment. Because once you invest more than 10k p/w, it means that you are paying lot more for every scouting point, which doesnt seem like a effective strategy. So the key is (in my opinion) to pay in advance only necessary volume of funds and wish yourself a luck.

Last edited by aigidios at 11/17/2010 10:23:41 AM

I kind of overlooked that "scouting combine" itself doesnt give me the opportunity to interview a players right after. That is not a good news. But still seems like a best choice to do both. If there is a need to get 18y olds and with best height, is not possible to do it other way.

So after I got like 15 points now, I raise my investment only to 20k p/w which gives me 30 points totally at the end. That means I can do both and interview 5 players. The rest will be on my guess and luck.

I think that the best way isnt to spend as much money as possible, but to get most from minimal investment. Because once you invest more than 10k p/w, it means that you are paying lot more for every scouting point, which doesnt seem like a effective strategy. So the key is (in my opinion) to pay in advance only necessary volume of funds and wish yourself a luck.

Well I would like to depend on luck as little as possible, even if it means spitting some extra 100 or 200k of money.

In 12 weeks, I will spend 480k of money. In return I hope to get one great rooke, one good and one decent. Great rookie can go for twice the money I will spend for the whole scouting. This doesn't mean I scout with intention to sell, but the investment of 480k seems small for three good rookies which are combined worth over 1 million on TL. Meanwhile, if you spend about 200k and have bad luck, you just spent 200k for almost nothing. Isn't better to spend additional 100-200k and get a great player?

It also depends on your league postition and the average scouting expenses in your league, but I prefer to think that usually Im able to get 1 such player like that at most. See a past drafts in your league and you can figure out how many MVPs which could be for something, are really in there. Im used to see that if I have high expectations, I get usually the same like when I invest the "reasonable" volume of money.

I spend in 12 weeks like 180k for 30 points (10k-20k investments). Which is by 300k less than you do. While during such investment I will miss just potential of some 18y/height players, while if I would invest more, there is still no insurance in that other team will not pick my best scouted player. Then it really hurts. For that 300k (which I usually miss in bidwar) I can buy a player which will win some games and pay for himself, while the best way for a payback in draft is to have a lucky guess.

If you use Scouting combine, then calculate if there is at least ten 18 years old players in that group (rank 30-48). Then you should use Group demonstration to save some points. If there is less than 10, then it is cheaper to scout 18 years old players one by one. If you are looking only short players, then I think there will be less than 10 players so you will not use Group demonstration.

As far as I can remember, if you use Scouting Combine, you can find the height and the age of all the draftees.
I wish if Scouting Combine could also reveal the position of the players...(even if it requires 20 points). It's very sad to see a player with around 185 cm turning out to be a center...:P