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Scout projections

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This Post:
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165537.1
Date: 12/4/2010 10:13:58 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4646
Are there any truth at all to them, or is a projected 5 star guy just as likely to be a 1 star as a 5 star?

This Post:
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165537.3 in reply to 165537.1
Date: 12/5/2010 6:13:23 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
522522
I think that a projected 5 star baseline ranking means that the player is slightly more likely to be 5 star than a 1 star.
I think that the baseline rankings are inherently varied but that they have a set error margin and so a 5 star baseline ranking is more likely to be closer to 5 stars than 1 star, and a 1 star baseline ranking is more likely to be closer to 1 star than 5 stars.

This Post:
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165537.5 in reply to 165537.4
Date: 12/5/2010 11:55:37 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
312312
Its totally random so there is just as likely that a 5ball is a 1 ball as a 1ball is a 5ball.

It's actually not totally random. 5-ball players are more likely to be good than 1-ball players, though there is no guarantee they will actually have 5 (or 1, for that matter) balls.

Is there any evidence of this? I don't recall any of the BB's actually stating this, and of course it's too early for anyone to have enough data from there own drafts to support it or refute it. Since everyone gets a different initial order of prospects, I'm not sold that the initial prospect list is any different than the completely random listing of potential draftees from the previous system - just now the first 9 are labeled with 5 grey prospect balls, the next 10 get 4 balls, the next 10 get 3, and so on. Now we just get to control which of those prospects are actually scouted rather than having the computer randomly pick guys to give us information on.

This Post:
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165537.7 in reply to 165537.5
Date: 12/5/2010 1:57:46 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
13361336
BB's stated that even though the list order is different for every manager, still the information accuracy is the same for every manager. This means it can't be totally random.

This Post:
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165537.8 in reply to 165537.7
Date: 12/5/2010 3:47:02 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
699699
Out of 19 players uncovered using group demonstration, I have 7 x 5 balls star rating, 3 x 4 balls, 2 x 3 balls, 4 x 2 balls, 3 x 1 ball.

I have interviewed 4 of the 5 balls, 3 have a potential 2 and 1 have a potential 3.

I can't provide any numbers but I had similar results last season using the same method. More high star ratings but with relatively low potentials. I only scouted twice a few players, not enough to draw a conclusion from a reprensatative sample.

The projected balls might be an inaccurate overall of the current and potential ability. Hopefully more data will be gathered from this draft to better understand the new system.

I will look for someone in my league who wants to spend points in the group demonstration and compare our results. It should be easy to find out if we all have the same grey balls estimations. For some reason, I suspect not.

This Post:
22
165537.9 in reply to 165537.8
Date: 12/6/2010 11:57:02 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1818
i have scouted 3 grey balls player and i was shocked: 18years old 6.2 pf 5balls A+ skills 5balls potencial so grey balls mean nothing

From: Newton07

This Post:
11
165537.11 in reply to 165537.10
Date: 12/6/2010 4:37:44 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
3535
variance 99%