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A simpler (and safer) LI fix

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From: wozzvt
This Post:
55
236574.1
Date: 2/26/2013 11:03:00 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
228228
I know there's been ad nauseum discussion of the changes Marin mentioned recently regarding shot blocking, and the relative dominance of LI offenses. While I'm all for changes, anything that changes the GE itself makes me nervous for the unintended consequences. So, I'd like to make a suggestion of a simple change that could shift the balance away from LI a bit, while also making game sense, and intuitive basketball sense:

Make tactical choices affect the Offensive Flow rating (which is to say, the modify the passing/handling of a team's players).

Specifically, inside offenses should incur a flow penalty, while outside offenses should get a slight boost.

Why it will work:
This requires a bit of BB-background: there's a huge difference in BB between shots which are "assisted" and shots which are "contested". The difference in shooting % on these shots can be 10-30%. This is why passing/flow is so important: getting more open shots vastly increases the rate at which they'll go in. Therefore, by having LI/LP incur a flow penalty, a lower percentage of shots will be "assisted", reducing the overall shooting % on these shots by changing the distribution of quality. Similarly, outside offenses will be slightly more effective, since they'll garner a higher % of assisted/uncontested shots than their inside counterparts.

Why it makes game sense:
Tactics affect every other team rating, it's only logical that they should affect flow as well.

Why it makes intuitive sense:
Inside offenses involve the ball being handled more by big men in tight areas of the court, whereas outside offenses involve guards handling it with comparative space around the perimeter. This "ball location" naturally would affect the ability to move the ball around.

Why it's safer than other proposals:
It doesn't require changes to the GE itself, just to the pre-game modifications that are applied based on the chosen tactic. This substantially cuts down on the risk of unintended consequences.


Again, I'm not trying to argue against the changes Marin alluded to, but I think something like this would be a safer thing to try first.

This Post:
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236574.2 in reply to 236574.1
Date: 2/26/2013 11:32:33 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
32293229
I like the proposal. I am curious though because I thought that the tactics did already affect the flow somewhat - at least going by coachparrot, where the different positions contribute to the overall flow in different ways based on tactics. I do also think that anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that having good passing on big men can help create much more open shots than otherwise. Of course, even if those factors do exist, I think you're spot on in suggesting that they should be even more a factor.

This Post:
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236574.3 in reply to 236574.2
Date: 2/26/2013 11:39:38 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
228228
Not unless it's been changed recently. Here are the offensive coefficients from the last time I calculated them:

// array(OS, IS, OF, PD, ID, RB)
'Base' => array(1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00),
'Push' => array(1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00),
'Patient' => array(1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00),

'RunAndGun' => array(1.17, 0.84, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 0.93),
'Princeton' => array(1.17, 0.84, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 0.93),
'Motion' => array(1.17, 0.84, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 0.93),

'LookInside'=> array(0.86, 1.17, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00),
'LowPost' => array(0.86, 1.17, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00)

(sorry for what is likely crappy formatting)

This Post:
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236574.4 in reply to 236574.3
Date: 2/26/2013 11:50:28 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
32293229
The formatting's fine. I had thought that the difference was more in how flow was calculated was changing based on the tactics, but that's a side discussion and fairly unimportant.

From: tykit

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236574.5 in reply to 236574.1
Date: 2/28/2013 12:15:14 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
106106
My intuitive sense makes me think with a little nuance :
1- As a coach, if i want my bigs to take shots down in the paint, i would tell all the players to pass the ball outside until they see the best pass inside. --> good flow because of ball movement outside isn't it ?
2- Another tactic (that would follow your intuition) would tell the outside guys to drive into the basket to make big defenders come out of their positions -> pass to the free big man. --> lower flow because of driving the ball inside.

So i would add to your idea that the offensive flow (following the tactic as you suggested) could have some link to players DR vs PA ability.
If they are more passing guys --> scenario 1
If they are more like driving --> scenario 2
If they are both --> you win the game :D

From: yodabig

This Post:
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236574.8 in reply to 236574.3
Date: 3/1/2013 6:40:26 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
14651465
I like your suggestion but I am VERY surprised to see those RE numbers. My (apparently false) impression was that when you play LP or LI you get a lot more offensive rebounds.

From: wozzvt

This Post:
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236574.9 in reply to 236574.8
Date: 3/2/2013 9:45:57 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
228228
There are various reasons that you may (different types of shots being taken, etc). This just says that you don't get a *skill* boost to Rb by playing those offenses.

From: yodabig

This Post:
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236574.10 in reply to 236574.9
Date: 3/3/2013 4:21:24 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
14651465
So you may not get a skill boost but with more inside shots the big men will get a higher percentage of the boards. Makes sense. Could be true.