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I decided to record the box score of my draftees, and I ended up getting 2 of the draftees whose box scores I recorded. I did this because I've heard a lot of people saying that box scores are completely worthless, but based on what I've found, they can actually be a pretty good indication of starting skills.

First Draftee: Leon Cruz, SG

Box Score: 40 Min, 1-13 FG, 0-3 3FG, 2-2 FT, 1 OR, 11 TR, 9 AST, 4 TO, 2 STL, 1 BLK, 2 PF, 4 PTS

Actual Starting Skills:
Jump Shot: average Jump Range: respectable
Outside Def.: mediocre Handling: inept
Driving: respectable Passing: respectable
Inside Shot: awful Inside Def.: inept
Rebounding: respectable Shot Blocking: atrocious
Stamina: average Free Throw: mediocre

Experience: atrocious

As you can see, in the box score, he had 11 rebounds, and he turned out to have respectable rebounding. He had 9 assists, and has respectable passing. He had 40 minutes, and has average stamina. He had 4 turnovers, and he only has inept handling, and while not that bad for a draftee, he did have 5 ball skill, and this is one of his primaries. His JS and JR surprised me a little but overall, pretty close to the box score.

Second Draftee: Austin Gilmore, C

Box Score: 20 Min, 1-3 FG, 1-1 3FG, 1-1 FT, 1 OR, 3 TR, 1 AST, 2 TO, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 4 PF, 4 PTS

Jump Shot: atrocious Jump Range: respectable
Outside Def.: awful Handling: average
Driving: atrocious Passing: pitiful
Inside Shot: mediocre Inside Def.: mediocre
Rebounding: respectable Shot Blocking: awful
Stamina: average Free Throw: strong

Experience: atrocious

He made a 3 pointer, and he has respectable JR, really good for a C draftee. He went 1-1 on FT and has strong FT (not really too many free throws to miss, but someone like Shaq or any other big man with a terrible FT would probably miss). This guy doesn't really follow the box score as much as Cruz, but there are still some skills that have correlated.

Overall, from what I've noted, I think box score can be a good way to predict a guy's skills, but it shouldn't be held as completely true and accurate.

Most surprising thing I see in these two boxscores and skills are played minutes/stamina. Always believed if the player plays 20 minutes (lowest possible), he can't have good stamina. And here I see two players, one played 40 minutes, another 20 minutes, but both with average stamina.

Problems I see are the stamina variance...
2nd guy had 4 fouls but only 1 ft attempt... Normally these aggressive players get to the line a bit too...
That blocks are vague indicator of shot blocking...
And range may indicate 3pt attempts but fg% has no indication of JS ability

Thanks for taking the time to research this.

The thing about using the box scores is that we should expect them to be based on the underlying skills, but still random. Players have good games, average games, bad games... and if we're tracking one game in a whole season, the only way we know if it was good, bad, or normal is by comparing to other games that player has played. We can't do that, so we're stuck with a bit of guessing.

Altogether, the box scores should provide reasonable indications of each prospect's abilities. However, every so often, we should expect one draftee or another will have something in their box score that is completely "off", simply because they had that kind of game.

Am I the only one shocked that a Center with atrocious JS hit a 3-pointer while we have guys in BB that attempt 1000 FTs and never make one due to atrocious FT skill?

C with a 3: 0.1-0.9 sublevel of JS guaranteed

any player with 0 FT: 0.0 sublevel of FT guaranteed

even atrocious guys can hit FT with 0.1-0.9 sublevel of it (usually under 40% FT)

Last edited by Kumiko (CAN U21) at 6/17/2013 10:16:19 PM

It's statistics, the sample size is just way too small to draw any conclusions. You can check in hindsight and things might check out partially, but that doesn't mean you can use it to predict anything. If on average 50% of the skills check out with the box score, it's still a complete crapshoot because you don't know which 50% check out beforehand.

As I said in my original post, not everything is going to be completely accurate, but it can be an okay way to predict skills. It definitely isn't perfect, but it can be a good indication.

Alright, next time try to actually predict what skills your draftee will have. That's a lot harder than to look at it afterwards and say "this is actually pretty close". I'm curious how close you can guess the skills with the box score ;)

I'll accept your challenge, for this season's draft, I'll try to predict my draftees' starting skills. However, just as I said before, it isn't going to be 100% accurate, however, I bet I can get pretty close. Now, all we have to do is wait over a month for the All Star Break ;)

Last edited by #ThugLife at 6/27/2013 6:05:42 PM