Well... if I were you, I would play TiE in this match. You aren't going to make second place in your conference- he need only 2 wins to clinch 2nd place in conference and he's going to do that. So you should play as much TiEs as you can- you will get much more ent and then maybe you will beat him with TiE? Your rival is going to do that- he also wants to get ready to play-offs.
And one more thing= normal vs. TiE+HCA is like normal vs. normal. It's 2 ent difference, so I don't think HCA is as important as you think.
Sorry for my English!
Leniwy, stary, wyliniały kocur. Czasem jeszcze zerknie na polskie tłumaczenia.