So. Firstly I believe during an offesive set the GE breaks the set inot 2 components.
A) Bring the bal up the court
B) after halft court plays.
im going to focus on the part a) for this post to begin with, and see what discussion comes out of it.
A) This is where the GE will run the odds of some of the following items:
- steal
- turnover
- half court prayer due to expiring time.
- timeout call
- those really annoying loose ball situations where the shot clock goes to zero and the game clock keeps running. And then ends with a steal.
- Exit to GE component B
also I believe the GE has no prejudice about who this event happens to ( as in, the position.) But i want to do some more research and have a look at who loses the ball in the first 5-10 seconds of the offensive set.
The variables that would increase chances of a steal/turnover would be the offense you pick plus the defense of the opposition.
Logically, i think RnG and the other 'fast paced' offenses would increase the chances of a steal in this part of the GE. Whilst the slower ones I believe would be a decrease.
Defensively, I think really only FCP would increase the likelyhood of a steal in this part of the GE, Perhaps M2M would have a small increase compared to the zone defenses? Not sure.
Other factors that might cause things to change, are the closeness of the game and the time - I believe that when it is a close game and the timer is running down, the chances of a steal happening in the first 5 seconds of the offensive set increase - almost as if the coach has instructed his team to play FCP. And this is definately something that you see. There is also the fouling within a few seconds from an inbounds pass off a score, when the game is close.
So other than these simple factors, there isnt a lot else that the game engine has to use to calculate events that occur in part A. These are the factors, in order of 'weighting'
- take into account game margin and remaining time
- Take into account opposing defense
- Take into account offensive selection.
There is also a bit of a flow on into part B from here also, because we do also see scoring done inside of 5 seconds sometimes, sometimes from an inbound pass. So as part of the calculation, it would have an effect on the offensive play. Not sure how these two are linked though.
And there is also the fact that I believe that the player who 'brings the ball up the court' isnt always the PG. Sometimes the player who has the ball stolen in side of 5 seconds isnt the PG, suggesting that someone else is selected to bring the ball up. I believe though that the GE just picks one. It doesn't try to simiulate 'passing inside the first 5 seconds', other than the rebound/inboudns pass.
Speaking of, there are two entry points for this, an opposing score or a rebound. I believe that the GE will make one simple jdugement on a player to 'bring the ball up'. It probably applies a weighting to the positions, im not convinced that it does anything too complicated here though (like take into account the direct opponents OD). it would take into account the defensive selection from a FCP perspective, and maybe perform some calculation after the fact - but in termso f picking the player who 'brings the ball up' i think its a weighted order, with preference for the PG, then SG, then SF, then PF then C.
But obviously if the PG rebounds, then it might try and change that ordering. Not sure.
anyways thats it for me on this first bit. Discuss!
Last edited by Coach Regan at 6/27/2014 3:12:12 AM