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BB Utopia > cup odds, how was your draw?

cup odds, how was your draw?

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This Post:
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273131.2 in reply to 273131.1
Date: 8/19/2015 1:08:05 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
88
Interesting thinking.
Your conclusion is a bit shaky as your assumption implies the better ranked Team always wins and that never two "higher" rankes teams play each other.
I'm not mathematically strong enough to give you better numbers (anyway would need more data), but still a fun thought.

Last leason I had, after your calculation, 5 x luck and 2 times bad luck. This season also started off great - with twice "luck". Let's hope it stay's like this! ;)

This Post:
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273131.6 in reply to 273131.5
Date: 8/21/2015 7:24:44 AM
Sin City inFamous
IV.16
Overall Posts Rated:
710710
Hey at-least I can use logic to disprove my own paranoia. Then again, so far my paranoia is only confirmed. I did the same analysis when I was in Nippon, and I looked at the odds of my draws. For that team I was drawing the worst 5% of possibilities and saw 5 straight seasons of horrible draws (while I was winning the JBBL title)
So the conclusion to me was
a- bad luck (I'll admit most likely I guess...even though the bad luck was in of itself improbable, hence the title bad luck..)
b- bad random number seeding (which causes same or similar things to continue to happen in a simulated randomness, that is not actually random- note although not random, it may not be controlled....in theory random number generators are simply uncontrolled, not actually random)
c- someone was reseeding the cup draws over and over until they liked what they saw and/or manually creating draws in a grand conspiracy.

I don't trust my own shadow! Why should I!



Probably you didn't know about random in Programming.

This is what BB uses (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandom_number_generato...)

This is what, for example, Pokerrooms use (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_gener...)

main difference is that Pseudorandom is not unique, so here you can see 2 matches which are the same in points, team ratings, MR, shooting percentage and so on.

So, i'm enough sure option B fits to your case.

This Post:
00
273131.7 in reply to 273131.6
Date: 8/21/2015 4:21:13 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
5959
How can you say having a higher rank team in cup a good draw? Thats a horrible draw I lost to a 289 cup team in utopia yesterday. Would you consider that a good draw because I got to do scrimmages from here on?

Heading on the right path so far. Are you?
This Post:
00
273131.8 in reply to 273131.1
Date: 8/21/2015 7:24:08 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
14901490
S31:
R1 350 (-674)
R2 432 (-80)
R3 251 (-5)
R4 22 (-106)
R5 340 (+284)
R6 48 (+16)
R7 3 (-13)

S32
R1 702 (+190)
R2 202 (-54)
R3 186 (+58)

I understand the reasoning, but I don't know how relevant it is tbh. Drawing a team 250-1000 might not make any difference for some people...and CRs are notoriously not an accurate reflection of the actual strength of a team.