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Auto Promote Spots

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This Post:
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276359.1
Date: 2/2/2016 1:12:15 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
5959
These results are out of date, see latest update towards the bottom for the finals



I went ahead and looked through the auto promote situation.

Found five bot teams in the top 3 tiers, but three are auto-relegating in III. So the two teams of notes are:
Toronto Traptors (NBBA)
Cows super-star team (III.11)
This means one spot will be definitely be available for III and IV autopromotes as the NBBA team spot filters down. If Traptors wins their RS, a II team would also autopromote. And if Cows wins their series, a second IV team would auto-promote.
I wasn't sure how to see if any other teams are near going bot.

On to the rankings. There are more teams with the same record but smaller PD, but they cannot make the autopromote so long as the slots don't change because of conferences above them with two teams. I have the rest handy if another spot does open up.

IV order:
1: 22-0 (+1389) Cyborgs {III.34}
2: 22-0 (+1318) Houston Legends {III.39}
3: 22-0 (+1269) Da Legends {III.9}
4: 22-0 (+1267) Junkyard Dogs {III.46}
5: 22-0 (+1067) Hardmoney Outlaws {III.57}
6: 22-0 (+996) Curly Fries {III.31}
7: 22-0 (+931) Red Bulls 1268 {III.24}
8: 22-0 (+889) Arstotzka BC {III.54}
9: 22-0 (+826) Bellevue Blackhawks {III.33}
10: 22-0 (+807) Grand Ma Mas {III.16}
11: 22-0 (+803) VB United {III.38}
12: 22-0 (+800) Lay Down the Law {III.49} (2523 PF)
13: 22-0 (+800) Rik Smits' Clogs {III.14} (2250 PF)
14: 22-0 (+786) AU Tigers {III.52}
15: 22-0 (+766) Suffolk {III.40}
16: 22-0 (+756) Revolution 99 {III.35}
17: 21-1 (+1142) The Disciples {III.47}
18: 21-1 (+1106) Innovatus {III.13}
19: 21-1 (+1092) Caerbannog Bunnies {III.5}
20: 21-1 (+1061) Mad Kow {III.55}
21: 21-1 (+1057) OKC Outlaws {III.53}
22: 21-1 (+1043) The LA Lions {III.7}
23: 21-1 (+1037) Connecticut Cresleys {III.1}
24: 21-1 (+1030) Tallahassee Technicals {III.62}
25: 21-1 (+997) The Wrath {III.23}
26: 21-1 (+991) Delaware 87ers {III.12}
27: 21-1 (+960) New York Chunks {III.32}
28: 21-1 (+959) 2 left feet {III.42}
29: 21-1* (+956) Lakeland Wolves {III.17}
30: 21-1 (+954) Georgia Miners {III.57}
31: 21-1 (+943) Long Island Pioneers {III.3}
32: 21-1 (+936) Rockford Raptors {III.2}
33: 21-1 (+928) RunninGuns {III.19}
34: 21-1 (+920) New York Nuggets {III.50}
35: 21-1 (+912) Peachtree City Shoo... {III.20}
36: 21-1 (+893) U.K Nuggets {III.60}
37: 21-1 (+872) Da Dawgs II {III.50}
I believe Lakeland falls to last amongst 1 loss because of the forfeit, but it shouldn't matter anyways. If you didn't make make 22-0, chances look slim to none.
If you're below Georgia in 30th, you cannot possibly promote unless cows loses.

III rankings:
1: 22-0 (+754) Mars Aliens {III.14}
2: 22-0 (+716) Chicken Hawks {III.6}
3: 22-0 (+691) Ice Man {III.5}
4: 22-0 (+614) Orlando Tragic {III.7}
5: 21-1 (+698) Philadelphia Phantasm {III.4}
6: 21-1 (+561) Illinois Riveters {III.8}
7: 20-2 (+661) Work in Progress {III.12}
8: 20-2 (+626) Pyramid of Success {III.9}
9: 20-2 (+576) Lawrence Lancers {III.9}
If I remember right (correct me if I'm wrong for future reference), a team doesn't need to win their division to autopromote, though all these teams did win their division.

And II rankings, in case Toronto wins:
1: 22-0 (+634) Cassville Yuck {III.3}
2: 20-2 (+688) The Bullets {III.2}
3: 20-2 (+576) Extra Crispy {III.1}
4: 19-3 (+677) Milwaukee-Bucks {III.1}


Let me know if you see any problems with my thinking, thanks.

Last edited by Shane Young at 2/2/2016 1:09:23 PM

Last edited by Shane Young at 2/10/2016 4:30:32 PM

This Post:
00
276359.2 in reply to 276359.1
Date: 2/2/2016 2:42:38 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
926926
I actually think that conference winners are given priority over others.... I could be wrong though.

Good work though!

Last edited by Chekreyes at 2/2/2016 2:43:05 PM

From: Jason

This Post:
11
276359.3 in reply to 276359.2
Date: 2/3/2016 1:04:35 AM
Arizona Desert Storm
III.3
Overall Posts Rated:
11181118
I actually think that conference winners are given priority over others.... I could be wrong though.
!


You are

From: Chekreyes

This Post:
00
276359.4 in reply to 276359.3
Date: 2/3/2016 8:33:02 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
926926
Laaaaaaame.

Message deleted
This Post:
11
276359.6 in reply to 276359.1
Date: 2/3/2016 10:34:37 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
5959
Went back through and checked things, and there was an important development... I found cows super-star team was not a bot, but instead a new bot replacement team. So that spot is gone. However, a new bot was found, and thanks to Flash Mashers I was also able to look at what teams may go bot before processing (42 days before 2/15 should be 1/3 or 1/4).
So here is a refreshed look at spots and teams in the running:


Bot options:
Toronto Traptors (NBBA) - BOT... in RS, lost game 1
Marseillus (II.1) - has not logged in since 1/1... autorelegating
Teejhay (III.8) - BOT... in RS, lost game 1
The Annihilators (III.13) - has not logged in since 1/3... in RS and won game 1


So the autopromote spots for each tier could range from:
II 0-1 (looks like 0 so far)
III 1-2 (looks like 1 so far)
IV 1-4 (looks like 2 so far, but quite possibly only 1)
These are dependent on how the relegation series go, and whether those two users do log back in.
Of course, this all hopes that BuzzerBeater doesn't replace any of the bot teams with new teams, which they seem to maybe be doing more than in the past?


IV order:
1: 22-0 (+1389) Cyborgs {III.34} W
2: 22-0 (+1318) Houston Legends {III.39} W
3: 22-0 (+1269) Da Legends {III.9} W
4: 22-0 (+1267) Junkyard Dogs {III.46} W
5: 22-0 (+1067) Hardmoney Outlaws {III.57} W
6: 22-0 (+996) Curly Fries {III.31} W
7: 22-0 (+931) Red Bulls 1268 {III.24} W
8: 22-0 (+889) Arstotzka BC {III.54} W
9: 22-0 (+826) Bellevue Blackhawks {III.33} W
10: 22-0 (+807) Grand Ma Mas {III.16} W
11: 22-0 (+803) VB United {III.38} W
12: 22-0 (+800) Lay Down the Law {III.49} (2523 PF) W
13: 22-0 (+800) Rik Smits' Clogs {III.14} (2250 PF) W
14: 22-0 (+786) AU Tigers {III.52} L
15: 22-0 (+766) Suffolk {III.40} W
16: 22-0 (+756) Revolution 99 {III.35} W
17: 21-1 (+1142) The Disciples {III.47} W
18: 21-1 (+1106) Innovatus {III.13} W
19: 21-1 (+1092) Caerbannog Bunnies {III.5} W
20: 21-1 (+1061) Mad Kow {III.55} W
21: 21-1 (+1057) OKC Outlaws {III.53} W
22: 21-1 (+1043) The LA Lions {III.7} W
23: 21-1 (+1037) Connecticut Cresleys {III.1} W
24: 21-1 (+1030) Tallahassee Technicals {III.62} W
25: 21-1 (+997) The Wrath {III.23} W
26: 21-1 (+991) Delaware 87ers {III.12} W
27: 21-1 (+960) New York Chunks {III.32} W
28: 21-1 (+959) 2 left feet {III.42} W
29: 21-1* (+956) Lakeland Wolves {III.17} W
30: 21-1 (+954) Georgia Miners {III.57} W
31: 21-1 (+943) Long Island Pioneers {III.3} W
32: 21-1 (+936) Rockford Raptors {III.2} W
33: 21-1 (+928) RunninGuns {III.19} W
34: 21-1 (+920) New York Nuggets {III.50} W
35: 21-1 (+912) Peachtree City Shooting Stars {III.20} W
36: 21-1 (+893) U.K Nuggets {III.60} W
37: 21-1 (+872) Da Dawgs II {III.50} W
38: 21-1 (+869) Shrugging Shlubs {III.4} W
39: 21-1 (+863) Jungle Fever {III.15} W
40: 21-1 (+860) Hawaii Chopsaki {III.21} W
41: 21-1 (+853) Mof State Squizzes {III.64} W
42: 21-1 (+846) Cutters {III.37} W
43: 21-1 (+844) Dougs Fir {III.29} L
I still believe Lakeland falls to last amongst 1 loss because of the forfeit, but it may well not matter that low.


III rankings:
1: 22-0 (+754) Mars Aliens {III.14} W
2: 22-0 (+716) Chicken Hawks {III.6} W
3: 22-0 (+691) Ice Man {III.5} W
4: 22-0 (+614) Orlando Tragic {III.7} W
5: 21-1 (+698) Philadelphia Phantasm {III.4} W
6: 21-1 (+561) Illinois Riveters {III.8} W
7: 20-2 (+661) Work in Progress {III.12} W
8: 20-2 (+626) Pyramid of Success {III.9} W
9: 20-2 (+576) Lawrence Lancers {III.9} W
10: 20-2 (+568) Flashover {III.13} W
11: 20-2 (+525) Los Angeles Lords {III.11} W
12: 20-2 (+435) shm {III.8} W


And II rankings, in case Toronto wins:
1: 22-0 (+634) Cassville Yuck {III.3} W
2: 20-2 (+688) The Bullets {III.2} W
3: 20-2 (+576) Extra Crispy {III.1} W
4: 19-3 (+677) Milwaukee-Bucks {III.1} W

This Post:
00
276359.7 in reply to 276359.6
Date: 2/3/2016 7:23:38 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
761761
Ayyy this is better I made the list I like this more

This Post:
00
276359.8 in reply to 276359.6
Date: 2/4/2016 11:09:01 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
7373
Got the auto promote spot. Glad that I showed that I deserve being ranked 42 in the US even though i'm only a DIII team.

This Post:
00
276359.10 in reply to 276359.9
Date: 2/5/2016 7:55:24 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
5959
JF, I've either been around here too long, or there has been a glut of top players going down. I feel like I've rather familiar with at least 10 of the names on the list.

This Post:
00
276359.11 in reply to 276359.6
Date: 2/7/2016 1:51:42 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
5959
Not a good round for the IV bubble at all, while III teams took care of business.

First off, the IV autopromote spots shrunk by one team... as the team that was Teejay in III.8 got replaced Thursday... and then lost the RS anyways. So won't be a spot either way. (What a rough way to enter the game, though.)
So down to three possible spots for IV teams.
The NBBA team won to stay alive in their relegation series, but is looking to be well behind for game 3 based upon the first two game results. Their opponent basically threw game 2. So II autopromote looking quite unlikely.
And the II team in the relegation series also lost to send it to game 3, though they should be more competitive.

And to make matters worse, some more top IV teams fell.


Bot options left:
Toronto Traptors (NBBA) - BOT NOW... in RS, won game 2 at home, but not by a ton... opponent saved enthusiasm, didn't guess, and started backups
Marseillus (II.1) - still has not logged in since 1/1... autorelegating
The Annihilators (III.13) - still has not logged in since 1/3... in RS lost game 2 on road, opponent has gained enthusiasm in both games, and now started double guessing


IV order:
1: 22-0 (+1389) Cyborgs {III.34} W
2: 22-0 (+1318) Houston Legends {III.39} W
3: 22-0 (+1269) Da Legends {III.9} W
4: 22-0 (+1267) Junkyard Dogs {III.46} W
5: 22-0 (+1067) Hardmoney Outlaws {III.57} W
6: 22-0 (+996) Curly Fries {III.31} W
7: 22-0 (+931) Red Bulls 1268 {III.24} W
8: 22-0 (+889) Arstotzka BC {III.54} L (r2)
9: 22-0 (+826) Bellevue Blackhawks {III.33} W
10: 22-0 (+807) Grand Ma Mas {III.16} L (r2)
11: 22-0 (+803) VB United {III.38} W
12: 22-0 (+800) Lay Down the Law {III.49} (2523 PF) W
13: 22-0 (+800) Rik Smits' Clogs {III.14} (2250 PF) W
14: 22-0 (+786) AU Tigers {III.52} L (r1)

III rankings:
1: 22-0 (+754) Mars Aliens {III.14} W
2: 22-0 (+716) Chicken Hawks {III.6} W
3: 22-0 (+691) Ice Man {III.5} W
4: 22-0 (+614) Orlando Tragic {III.7} W
5: 21-1 (+698) Philadelphia Phantasm {III.4} W
6: 21-1 (+561) Illinois Riveters {III.8} W
7: 20-2 (+661) Work in Progress {III.12} W
8: 20-2 (+626) Pyramid of Success {III.9} W
9: 20-2 (+576) Lawrence Lancers {III.9} W
10: 20-2 (+568) Flashover {III.13} W
11: 20-2 (+525) Los Angeles Lords {III.11} W
12: 20-2 (+435) shm {III.8} L (r2) [2 seed]

And II rankings, though it's going to take a small miracle for Toronto to win probably:
1: 22-0 (+634) Cassville Yuck {III.3} W
2: 20-2 (+688) The Bullets {III.2} W
3: 20-2 (+576) Extra Crispy {III.1} L (r2)


Given that the game replaced one bot team, we certainly can't even be sure there will be any autopromote spots. Gotta hope the game doesn't take it upon itself to drop a new team in the top league!

To the finals!

Last edited by Shane Young at 2/7/2016 1:53:40 PM