well, actually I was thinking about this problem not a week ago, but I wouldn't give the choice to the manager, I'd make the game engine smarter.
Why? simpel, because you must know the situation, and the gamehistory to be able to make the right decision, only the coach can do that, since you can't make choices once you reach 15 minutes before the game.
There are a few options:
the loosing team is prety good at 3 pointers, and the winning team has not shown a very good outside D during the game.
Same but loosing team is not good at 3 pointers anyway.
same as first, but winning team has also good outside D.
And the remaining option.
hen thee is also the FT % the winning team has shown during the game, and the coach is supposed to know a little about the FT% of the opposing players during the season as well.
Now let's give an example: say the loosing team sucks at 3 pointers, but the winning team also sucks at FT. Then it would be wise to foul and go for 2. But so far the game engine fouls and goes for 3, so the score doesn't change much at all, while if you go for 2, you actually gain on your opponent missing 1 or 2 FTs.
An other thing bothering me is that the time needed is just too small.
If 40 seconds are remaing, and a good 3-point team is behind on a not so good FT team by 10 points, I put my money on the 3-ponit team, and not on the team being 10 points in front.
Ofcourse the system is made so the team who is behind can still win, but mostly this should not happen.
It is quite frustrating to see a 3 point against in second 39, then miss 1 FT and at second 38 being fouled to just get an other 3 points against in second 37.
It is not always like that, but I've seen games in which 10 seconds provided 4 shotchances for the lossing team...40 seconds could mean 16 shotchances this way, and I just think it is a little to fast going that way. The defending team should try to stall, and try to prevent getting fouled, and should also try to prevent the opponent from taking a 3 point shot within a second of time, especially against a good 3-point team, even if this means they foul on the action, because a foul only means 2 possible points.
So in fact the coach should evaluate: own 3 point chances, own 2 point chances, oppenent's FT chances, and then based on that info, make a decision on how to coach his team.
They are not your friends; they dispise you. I am the only one you can count on. Trust me.