Yeah, I think that's about it. Although the game had quite some foul trouble involved, (mind the ratings). The final points were mainly free throws. It was closer then it shows (late run incl. FT's). So I think you are completely right about the boost in the first period, but I don't think the boost is very big. If you get the prediction totally wrong (outside offense vs. inside offense) the boost will be a bit bigger ofcourse. But this seems pretty realistic, since you can still win if you mess up...