Point being~ We saw that open shots (or what we interpreted as such) can have lower fg% than guarded shots. We determined that team ratings (defense) of opponent impacted shooting % greatly, specifically unguarded shots.
Here I hope I understand your right. If not just say it.
Open shots (in the game viewer and also in mouthlinhos tool) have sometimes a lower fg% than defended shots. And you say now, that the "team defense" (OD and ID) is responsible for this. Correct?
If so, I agree. And I think I know why that's the case.
There is a very old post from Charles (I think it was saison 10) were he talked a little bit about the process of finding a shot. And in other posts he mentions how OD and SB works or how they should work in the GE. So the following is a summarize of the information.
We two play against each other. You choose a tactic, let's say Motion. For this tactic the GE has "bottem line FG%". I don't know how I should call it else. This FG% is important for every shot your players take. Your PG has the ball and starts the play. He finds a shooting place and the GE now compares his potential FG% for only
this shot with the "bottom line FG%". For the GE it's important to take a good shot, which is above this bottom line. So let's say your PG has a potential FG% of 46.7%. Now, my PG comes to defend. His defense skills are extremly strong and he influences your player. The potential FG% drops from 46.7% to 29.3%. Now your player decides: shooting or passing! But how do you know if the pass is good? There is another calculation for passing, which is also influenced by OD ratings (OD+Stamina+ maybe sth else).
Now your PG has two options
1) he shoots with a potential FG% of 29.3%
2) he passes the ball to a player
Let's go further with 2). The pass is heavily disturbed by my def-PG but your PG finds your PF. But now your PF has a problem. The pass was bad and he finds himself in a bad shooting position. But he is free. Influeced by the bad pass of his PG and his own skills, his potential FG% is 25.6% in this shooting spot. The GE calls it an open play and your PF takes the shot. And you have an unguarded shot which is worser than a guarded one.
A higher PA from the PG would increase the FG% for this open shot. Everyone knows that OD got a boost in season 10, but almost everyone forgot that Charles switched from a "fast shooting GE" to a "slower and more passing relevant GE". I think you used mouthlinhos tool too. Did you see that almost every open shot which is made has an assist from a teammate? This assist/pass has a huge impact on the shot itself.
I read some of your post. I think you call it team defense rating. I don't call it that but I think we mean both the same. For you the team defense rating is a calculation of OD, ID, SB and Stamina, or? Because for me, these four skills are responsible for everything what happends during the time your team plays defense. So yes, maybe the name team defense is suitable.
In this case, once they shoot, wouldn't SB be a non-factor in the matchup, if the shot is open? Or are you disagreeing with this in your experience.
Yes, it's a non-factor here. The opponent is to far away to block the shot. So the shot is "open" but it doesn't mean it wasn't influenced by OD, ID and Stamina.
As far as SB goes, I believe it is a factor in team defense in two ways~
#1 I do believe it impacts team ID rating, and potentially alters opponent shot-selection
#2 I believe it is the primary help defense stat, and you can block shots of players you are not guarding, even in MtM
#1 yes, I think so to. And Charles said, that SB is a (small) part of the ID rating.
#2 here I have the same opinion. in m2m it occurs less than in zones, but it's still there. I would go with the following: "a help defense attempt is a SB attempt" (only here in the GE, not in real basketball)