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Thanks,

So is there something I'm not aware of that can explain a salary drop on a 33yo or less player ?

Good stuff, mate!

Didn't get a chance to watch it up until now, unfortunately. Definitely liked it!

Interesting numbers indeed. Some quite unexpected win rates imho. Wanted to maybe see more data on the box-and-one defenses, as well as the outside iso offense but obviously they are not yet used enough and the sample size is way too small to extract any meaningful data.

What I plan to do sometime soon is to have a script go through all Swiss-system match-ups (for obvious reasons), B3 + all BBM tiers. Filter out all garbage time games, filter out all GDP games. Possibly filter out all injury-affected games as well. Then the results should not be too contaminated and the sample size might just be enough to provide some insights on the less frequently used tactics as well.

Keep up the good work!

Throwing some basic stats from NT First round European championship games:

Total 168 games among all participants:
Outside offense_107_58wins_54,2% win rate_109,19 avg pts scored
Neutral offense_143_70wins_48,95% win rate_105,93 avg pts scored
Inside offense_86_40wins_46,51% win rate_101,10 avg pts scored

Total 36 games among 4 best teams in group:
Outside offense_25_16wins_64,0% win rate_107,52 avg pts scored
Neutral offense_21_9wins_42,86% win rate_102,33 avg pts scored
Inside offense_26_11wins_42,31% win rate_99,54 avg pts scored

Total 168 games among all participants:
motion_46_24wins_52,2% win rate_106,7 avg pts scored_4,2 rnk vs 4,1 rnk opponent
princeton_22_8wins_36,4% win rate_93,3 avg pts scored_5,1 rnk vs 4,0 rnk opponent
run and gun_39_26wins_66,7% win rate_121,2 avg pts scored_4,1 rnk vs 5,5 rnk opponent

look inside_70_34wins_48,6% win rate_101,9 avg pts scored_4,3 rnk vs 4,1 rnk opponent
low post_16_6wins_37,5% win rate_97,7 avg pts scored_3,9 rnk vs 3,8 rnk opponent

patient_18_1wins_5,6% win rate_80,6 avg pts scored_6,7 rnk vs 3,2 rnk opponent
push the ball_46_31wins_67,4% win rate_120,6 avg pts scored_4,4 rnk vs 6,0 rnk opponent
base offense_10_3wins_30,0% win rate_91,6 avg pts scored_5,7 rnk vs 4,0 rnk opponent
outside iso_15_8wins_53,3% win rate_108,3 avg pts scored_5,5 rnk vs 5,4 rnk opponent
inside iso_54_27wins_50% win rate_103,9 avg pts scored_4,0 rnk vs 4,0 rnk opponent

Edit:
rnk - means average group standing position of team that played chosen tactic,
rnk opponent - means average group standing position of team against which was tactic played



Team rating relevancy (average group standing position among 10 best records in each category):
OS_3,4
IS_3,1
OD_1,5
ID_2,1
RB_3,1
OF_4,1
TOTAL SUM_1,8


Last edited by LA-zajino at 1/25/2024 8:32:17 AM

Well, well, well... First of all, thanks for sharing these numbers to everyone, I truly appreciate your effort on that research work.

If I'm not mistaken (but I could possibly be) we can sum up some things:

1) We've come to an official end of an era in terms of inside attacks. Although the volume of matches is pretty large, their winning percentage has drop against outside attacks

2) Slow paced offense are still not working OR are still being played mostly on an underdog team who tries to surprise.
Note that those tactics are the ones with the lower winning % over every category.

3) Both fastest tactics (run and gun + push the ball) are the ones chosen to be played when a team have the most difference advantage in ranking.

4) ISOs are making their way through the favourite tactics to win more games. It could be very interesting to know more about this evolution from 4-5 season ago and see the changes over time.


And lastly...

Team rating relevancy (average group standing position among 10 best records in each category):
OS_3,4
IS_3,1
OD_1,5
ID_2,1
RB_3,1
OF_4,1
TOTAL SUM_1,8

I don't "understand/know how to read" these numbers. Could you help me out?

Thanks.

Team rating relevancy (average group standing position among 10 best records in each category):
OS_3,4
IS_3,1
OD_1,5
ID_2,1
RB_3,1
OF_4,1
TOTAL SUM_1,8

I don't "understand/know how to read" these numbers. Could you help me out?

Thanks.

avg team OS rating in 8 games in group among all countries
38,71 ROU (group and final standing position E - 4th)
38,14 BUL (D-2nd)
36,14 ITA (D-1st)
35,57 SWE (B-5th)
35,57 NOR (E-7th)
35,43 POR (B-3rd)
35,43 ARM (D-8th)
35,14 FIN (E-1st)
35,00 LTU (A-1st)
34,71 HUN (E-2nd)

That is (4+2+1+5+7+3+8+1+1+2 =34). So best 10 teams in OS rating creates an average 3,4 position in group.
while..

avg OD rating in 8 games in group among all countries
43,42 FIN (E1) a.k.a wondrous (medium)
43,29 ESP (C1)
42,71 POL (B1)
42,14 LTU (A1)
40,86 ITA (D1)
40,86 SRB (E3)
40,14 BUL (D2)
39,57 TUR (A2)
39,29 ISR (F1)
39,14 FRA (F2)

That means if your team dominated OD ratings your team most likely advanced to next round. If your team dominated RB or OF in rating, it doesnt need to be that way. F.ex. Armenia or Norway made great OS ratings and still ended as 7th or 8th in group.
So OD mattered a lot.

Last edited by LA-zajino at 1/25/2024 10:16:01 AM

Great input, mate! Thumbs up!

Do you happen to have this for the various defensive tactics as well?

Great! Thank you

So the better the OD ratings, better the results, right? That is shocking because as mentioned, outside attacks dominated and clearly worked better!

I love theese type of statistics. They say "all" and nothing at the same time

Anyways thanks! Saved many time for us.

Some stuff is obvious, as for example patient ant rng/ptb. Loose less/win more tactis as always looses by smaller/higher margin, win rates probably around the same as they used to be.

Rating relevancy is hard to read, because there are 6 groups, so best possible average is 1,4; should have compared top 6 prolly.
As usually OD is the main rating. The most interesting part would be to compare it to previous seasons, but feeling tells ID and OD would be somewhat equal in seasons before PA update.

Funny thing OS 3,4 and OD 1,5 are somehwat contradicting, or just means it helps defend neutrals and insides too



Last edited by Vilkai [LTU NT] at 1/25/2024 1:20:45 PM

It was supposed to be basic stat. We could use it for future comparisions though. As i have recorded all the games there is more stats to be observed. F.ex. tactics usage among top 4 teams in groups. Btw outside tactic win ratie is 64% here while neutral and inside are somewhere at 49%. Again, among top 4 teams in groups.

I throw defense stats as well, as box and one is rising in numbers.

How do you get these stats? Is there a public tool for this?