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The main argument that people have who are arguing for a linkage between jump shooting and FT skills is that a big disparity between these two is unrealistic (though conveniently ignoring the expert testimony of actual players like Larry Bird and Isaiah Thomas). Well, let's look at some stats, and ask whether there is a good correlation between shooting percentage and free throw percentage.

So I got the data for 452 players from the 2010-2011 NBA season from ESPN.com. Plotting FT% versus either FG% or 3 point% gives an unimpressive cloud, no sense by eye that there is a relationship between the two. And their linear correlation coefficients bear that out: r-squared for FT% vs FG% is a paltry 0.038. This might reflect the effect of big men, who can have high FG%, but have FT difficulties in. For 3pt shooting percentage is was better, but r-squared was still a small 0.132.

Because there were a good number of players who took very few 3 point shots, where they might have been screwing with the resulting correlation, I removed those players who attempted fewer than 0.3 three pointers per game. That made the r^2 =0.108.

Also, it's worth noting that the slope of these linear regression lines (despite the fact they didn't suggest a strong correlation) weren't very steep, between 0.38 to 0.52. This suggests that if you did link the two skills, it wouldn't be linked very tightly (a slope of 1 would mean that for a given % increase in FG/3P%, you'd get the same increase in FT%, 0.5 you'd get half that, etc.).

Now, one thing that was apparent from the data was that there were only 12 players who never made a FT (likely these guys took very few attempts), and then the next level of players, with the lowest FT%, started around 30% (there was nobody in between). This would support the suggestion that the lowest levels of FT be bumped up a little, if you believe that BuzzerBeater's main objective should be a realistic simulation of basketball stats.

I don't believe that, and never have in issues of game design where "playability/decision making" and "realism" are at odds. If you link shooting (either by jumpshot, or jump range, whatever, despite the evidence to the contrary) to FT, then you remove one of the strategic calculations that a manager has to make. "Should I train JS, or FT this week?" When that happens, things get boring IMO. Of course this was part of Charles's point.

If you want the game to be closer to reality there would be two ways:

1) Easy: JS and JR have cross training with FT
2) Hard: FT affects the speed of training the JS and JR

lets draft an hypothetical guy with respectable JS and JR and atrocious FT

-> Today he can be a monster that is unnatural, being a very good shooter that sucks at FT and you should manually correct this flaw of the game training FT.

-> On the first option you would train the shooting and he would improve on the FT, making him even more monstrous that he is today but closer to reality, being good from the field and from the line.

-> On the second option the monster that can't shoot free throws doesn't exist (his jump shot training speed should be very small at some point) and you should train his free throw otherwise he won't be a monster. You get almost unable to be a good shooter without a decent FT.


I think that everybody wants the game to be closer to reality, but they also like challenges and don't want the game to be easier. What you guys think about the second idea, would it be more tough and also more close to reality or I'm suggesting nonsense?

If you want the game to be closer to reality there would be two ways:

1) Easy: JS and JR have cross training with FT
2) Hard: FT affects the speed of training the JS and JR

I kinda like that idea from a game design perspective, but it's not closer to reality.

Actually, it is.

Free throws are the easiest thing for a basketball player to score. The more effective a guy is in shooting FTs, the better are the chances that he'll hit jump shots far away from the basket.

I think JR would be the key factor, in this situation. It doesn't make sense that a guy that averages, let's say, 45% in 3FG is averaging 22& in FTs. Just saying...

Um, did you even read my message? The one that looks at the results that real basketball players put up, and shows that despite what we all assume, there isn't a relationship between the ability to hit field goals (or 3 pointers, though there's a bit better relationship) and the ability to hit free throws.

Now your point about the 22% FT shooters isn't a bad one, but it's easily overcome by the GM making a good choice. Train FT for a few weeks, and you won't see those type of mismatches. Or maybe people would prefer having an atrocious FT skill hold back their JS and JR training. Cause like Charles pointed out, not many people are arguing it that way.

Um, did you even read my message? The one that looks at the results that real basketball players put up, and shows that despite what we all assume, there isn't a relationship between the ability to hit field goals (or 3 pointers, though there's a bit better relationship) and the ability to hit free throws.

So where are the <50% FT shooters that play guard in the NBA?

Last edited by hupfingatsch ihm sein Knecht at 7/6/2011 2:07:10 PM

So where are the <50% FT shooters that play guard in the NBA?

I know a lot of them. But I'll only tell you if you can find me an NBA player who never trained FTs. Deal?

No I didn't and here's why: I didn't want too.

There were too many letters and it was very, very long.

So there...

PS: I'm just kidding

Last edited by Santos at 7/6/2011 2:47:43 PM

Easy one. Iverson.