BuzzerBeater Forums

5. The Ashkickers (4)
How do I explain to Tylormade my continued disrespect of his team which boasts the best record in the league, who build both Philly Dribble and Carolina Rebels this week, and is in the middle of a 9-game winning streak? Well, for starters, their EFFG of 110.8 is only good for 8th in the league...and so, even though they boast the 2nd best OPP EFFG (60.9), the averages balance out and they find themselves just slightly behind Philly in these rankings. They've got a big opportunity this weekend, however, as they travel to San Dominica. If they take down the Warriors, will I finally put them where they (probably) rightfully belong in these rankings next week? (No, because I don't do rankings during the all-star break, silly cat).

6. Linndale (6)
Despite dropping a few points in both EFF categories this week, Linndale remains 6th in these rankings, though they're stirring the pot a bit, bringing in a 39-year-old Spaniard from Greek Div III after a dominant performance last weekend against the Spartans followed by a drubbing handed out by Hustlas where SG Kyle Knoles shot a pathetic 21% from the field on over 1/3 of the team's total shots. They look to turn it around against Żubr Białystok at home before the break after dropping to 4th seed in the Great 8 with an 8-4 record.

7. Hustlas (7)
Reece's boys maintained course this week even though they dropped that game of #3 matchups to the Warriors by taking it out on Linndale three days later. Sławek Klin slid over to center for the matchup and was 9-11 from the field with 4 more free throws and 15 total rebounds while they had good support from three other starters and backup PG all hitting double digits in points. Their pre-all-star matchup is a cake walk against BOBBBSBOTTS and they've been wheelin' and dealin', selling off three players on the 13th before bringing in 35-year-old Mikelis Slakteris. The Latvian native slots in at PF, but has filled the center role primarily for the Div III Spanish squad Les Bories, which is French for "The Bories", whatever that means.

8. Carolina Rebels (8)
6, 7, and 8 ranks stay the same this week, and while Carolina's 9-3 record ties for the top of the conference, their point differential says otherwise, slotting them 3rd in the Big 8. While they suffered their third defeat against The Ashkickers on the road summarily, they were able to handle then 5th seeded Żubr Białystok, winning by 18 points at home. Next up, the surprising Beer Bellys at home in what should be an intriguing matchup and will matter for seeding purposes on both sides of the bracket.

9. 209's MostWanted (10)
Bumping up a spot this week, 209 continues to have an up and down season, winding their way to .500 with another win/loss combination this week, first knocking out The Beer Bellys on that last second shot to win in OT before succumbing to Miami, scoring only 69 (nice) points on the night. They get to play host to Motor City Saturday night and will most likely be looking forward to seeing how Nerijus Kackis, the big man from Lithuania who they pulled in with a $300k bid from Div II Lithuanian squad PLUMBERS VILNIUS B.C. He immediately becomes their highest paid player and should slot into the starting lineup for them.

10. The Philadelphia Spartans (11)
We've reached the sub-500 teams in the rankings, and despite selling off two high salaries recently, the Spartans are hanging on to the top of this tier, thanks in part to their bot match up with BOBBBS, despite getting trounced by Speedtraps' crew last weekend by nearly 40 points. They look to maintain their ground in a matchup against the lowly Lion Rebels on Saturday before the break, relying on Gilberto Romão to lead the way to victory.

11. Żubr Białystok (9)
Whitestok's group is in the midst of a four-game losing streak after getting back to .500 on the season, suffering losses to Carolina and San Dominica this week. And while they were somewhat competitive against the Warriors, there's something a bit off about this group this season. But they're still in the Cup with an upset victory over 97th ranked Minnesota Mean Machine last night. They face off against Linndale on the road this weekend before the break, which doesn't look like a promising matchup for them to improve in the standings.

12. Lion Rebels (12)
It looks like a fire sale is happening over here, but it could just be that the transfer market is ridiculous right now. Either way, a shift appears to be in the works for the Lion Rebels who've settled into their 4-8 record, and it appears they've given up hope for the playoffs, sacrificing those chances on the altar of the Cup this season. They host the Spartans on TV this weekend and it's rumored that if certain players don't sell (here's looking at you Fabio) and they pull off a win, they might alter their course and try to stick around. But a loss this Saturday all but assures they head for the cellar to retool their roster.

13. Motor City Waddupdoe (13)
12-16 in these rankings appear pretty well set in stone, but Motor City saw improvements in both categories this week, though not enough to move the needle in any direction. Still, improvement is improvement. While they lost to Lion Rebels, they were able to easily handle BKDogs, making the gap between 14 and 13 look larger than just one number. Next up is 209's on the road, which will most likely leave them stuck at 3 wins until the start of 2023 when they host Sweaty Socks.

14. BKDogs (14)
Another week, another two losses for BK, getting hammered by Miami last weekend and then struggling to put forth a competitive effort against Motor City. Bot game this weekend for them, though, so they should notch win number two on Saturday. Either which way, their relegation matchup prospects don't look promising, but a lot can change between now and then.

15. Sweaty Bots (15)
And botified. Too bad.

16. BOTTTSBURGS (16)
Oh well.

Three teams still left in the Cup - pretty good for the final 64 group! Have a good weekend and I'll try to post some all-star predictions a little later.

Season 59 All Star Predictions
Much like my power rankings, I base these all-star predictions on player efficiency for the season (for the most part - there are a few instances where potential all-stars are not in the top twenty of player efficiency, at which point I "resort" to player ratings, and in a couple of instances [Big 8's backup SG, SF*] I had to resort to actually looking at statistics and comparing them. Ugh.). Each player listed will show their efficiency on the season behind their name, followed by their overall league ranking.

*SF was HARD. First off, Coach Stephenson didn't do me any favors by alternating Luís Alberto Baião and Mário Granja back and forth between SG and SF, with both playing 6 games apiece at each position. Neither are ranked in the top 20 in EFF or AR, but they both had the highest EFF rating out of my options, but I penalized them for not playing enough games at the position. Who knows if that'll work out for me? After those two and Paul Lutz and Murin/Gatto in the Great 8, the drop off for SF in both divisions is pretty incredible. Which makes sense, in a way, as it seems like SF is the hardest position to train up.

Big 8 Starters
PG: Trent Begley: 18.4 EFF - Carolina Rebels - 14th in EFF | 11th in Average Ranking (AR) - 14.1
SG: Mário Granja: 17.3 EFF - San Dominica Warriors - 20th in EFF | Unranked in AR - 12.8
SF: Juljonas Glicas: 22.3 EFF - Philly Dribble - 9th in EFF | 6th in AR - 14.4
PF: Jérome Bégin: 22.4 EFF - San Dominica Warriors - 8th in EFF | Unranked in AR - 13.3 | Last season's SF Starting All Star
C: Dewayne Allen: 24 EFF - Carolina Rebels - 2nd in EFF | Tied 20th in AR - 13.6

Great 8 Starters
PG: Damon Santana: 14.8 EFF - Miami Cleo - Unranked in EFF | Tied 20th in AR - 13.6
SG: Juan Gilberto Segovia: 16.1 EFF - The Beer Bellys - Unranked in EFF | 17th in AR - 13.8
SF: Graziano Gatto: 18.7 EFF - The Ashkickers - 13th in EFF | Unranked in AR - 12.8
PF: Patrick Cheatle: 24.5 EFF - Miami Cleo - 1st in EFF | Unranked in AR - 12.1
C: Clark Riggins: 22.7 EFF - Żubr Białystok - 5th in EFF | 4th in AR - 15.1

Big 8 Backups
PG: Miguel Velasco: 15.7 EFF - Philly Dribble - unranked in EFF | 5th in AR - 14.8
SG: Max-Phillip Woesler: 12.4 EFF - Philly Dribble - Unranked in EFF & AR
SF: Paul Lutz: 12.6 EFF - Linndale - Unranked in EFF & AR
PF: Jérome Bégin: 22.4 EFF - San Dominica Warriors - 8th in EFF | Unranked in AR - 13.3
C: Terry Armstead: 23.7 EFF - Lion Rebels - 3rd in EFF | 1st in AR - 16.5

Great 8 Backups
PG: Lorenzo Rojas: 14.9 EFF - The Ashkickers - Unranked in EFF & AR - 13.5
SG: Arys Varpukevicius: 16.3 EFF - Miami Cleo - Unranked in EFF | 19th in AR - 13.7
SF: Marko Murin: 18.2 EFF - Miami Cleo - 15th in EFF | Unranked in AR - 13.2
PF: Sławek Klin: 22.6 EFF - Hustlas - 6th in EFF | 2nd in AR - 15.2
C: Yüce Semiramis: 20.8 EFF - The Beer Bellys - 11th in EFF | Unranked in AR - 12.4

Season 59 All Star Predictions - Part Two
Flyers, Snubs, and other Drubs
Isidre Homs, The Beer Bellys fantastic PF is the biggest snub with his 7th overall EFF losing out to Klin and Cheatle this season. Shortly behind him, another PF, Philadelphia Spartans Gilberto Romão missed the boat as well (21.6 EFF - 10th). On the Big 8 side, Linndale's PF Nick Guevara missed out (19.3 EFF - 12th). Others receiving votes: Ashkickers' Toni Colomina (PF), Motor City Waddupdoe's Paul Cater (C), and Geoffray Locus from Miami (C).

Admittedly, EFF is weighted toward the big men (which is what makes it a bit harder to project guards/small forwards in this system), but after Fasselli (see below), Kyle Knowles from Linndale missed out with his 7th best AR ranking, as did Hustlas Robertas Oblacinskas (8th), and Oscar Reine of The Ashkickers (9th) to round out the top ten AR ranked players.
From the Efficiency side of things, Linndale's Center Mikhail Klimenkov is the biggest snub for the Big 8, with an EFF of 19.7, good for top 15 in EFF in the league. He's followed closely by Rip City's Center Elio Pagnini with a 19.1 EFF, good for 20th on the list so far this season.

In terms of "flyers" I took, I put Max-Phillip Woesler in place of his everyday backup Paride Fasselli. This one was fun because I ID'd Fasselli first for this spot, based on his third ranked 15.1 AR, but I couldn't very well give it to Fasselli whose played 218 minutes compared to Woesler whose played 346 minutes, or 58% more than his backup. Besides, Woesler's good! Or at least, Fasselli has less time on the floor to show his ineptitudes [if there are any].

Similar logic was applied to the back SF choice as the one above: San Dom's Granja has played 189 minutes at SF [192 at SG], and Baião has played 181 at SF [177 at SG] compared to Lutz, whose put in around 100 more minutes at the position and only played SF. Maybe it's not fair to Baião and Granza who boast a 16.7 & 17.3 EFF compared to Lutz's 12.6. But to that, I say, 'Life's not fair, eat a lemon.'

As far as team snubs, I feel like this is spread pretty evenly between the best teams, with one or two entries sneaking in there (Armstead and Riggins). I always enjoy getting to spot a bad team's top player like we saw last season with 2 percent slipping in there with Paulo Mari Acuña. They were 3-10 at the time of the break (and went on to finish a somewhat respectable 8-14). But this season, aside from my miserable team and whitestok's struggles, nothing like that really sticks out. I suppose Tylormade has a case to be made for his group having the best record and only two representatives in my projection.

3-Point Contest Predictions
For the 3-point competition it seems to me that you have to have at least 50 attempts on the season, so I'm taking the top 6 3-point percentage shooters who've shot at least 48 shots (you'll see why I chose 48 in a moment), which excludes the following "sharp" shooters thus far:
Miguel Tercero - San Dominica - 51.7% on 29 attempts
Niko Motturi - Lion Rebels - 46.4% on 28 attempts
Domantas Apvinis - Żubr Białystok - 45.5% on 22 attempts
Luís Alberto Baião - San Dominica - 43.9% on 41 attempts

So, here are my guesses:
Juljonas Glicas - Philly Dribble - 54.2% on 48 attempts
Fabian Carrillo - Lion Rebels - 49.1% on 53 attempts
Mario Granja - San Dominica - 45.3% on 53 attempts
Juan Gilberto Segovia - The Beer Bellys - 43.4% on 53 attempts
Lorenzo Rojas - Linndale - 41.5% on 53 attempts
Graniano Gattoni - The Ashkickers - 41.4% on 58 attempts

Interestingly both number of 3-point shots and percentages are lower this season. I wouldn't be surprised if Baiao and Damon Santana sneak into this group as well.

I'm sure the last game before the break will throw all of my predictions into chaos, but that's half the fun!

No respect...just win baby.

"Listen", Pio Reina says as he steps to the podium, "I don't want to hear about how well we played or didn't play. I don't want to hear it. We shot like trash. We didn't take care of the basketball. We weren't active enough on defense. This is not the Linndale basketball we expect to play. It is not acceptable, and to happen when the opponent isn't putting in the effort says a lot about us. Seems some folks have gotten a little complacent, and I don't like that. And still, this might have been our most complete game of the season. We have so much to clean up. We have to re-establish the inside game. We need to keep the guards trending in the right direction offensively. We have to clean up the turnovers. We have to do a better job of sharing the basketball. On the bright side, the bench looked solid. I'd like to see more of a scoring punch, but I imagine they might need a little time to gel and get that sorted. We have to be better with the three ball. We have so much to fix, and I won't rest until we do. We have a tough one coming up against the Ashkickers, and we end the season with a brutal stretch. We don't have a lot of time to get things together, so these guys better straighten up and fly right if they want to win a postseason game. That's all; I'm not taking questions tonight. There's too much work to do. Thanks for coming and good night."

Day 13 (Saturday 17 December 2022) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
The Philadelphia Spartans 92 - Lion Rebels 109
Hustlas 155 - BOBBBSBURGS 60
Żubr Białystok 65 - Linndale 82
The Ashkickers 89 - San Dominica Warriors 85
The Beer Bellys 59 - Carolina Rebels 80
Miami Cleo 84 - Philly Dribble 75
Motor City Waddupdoe 50 - 209’s MostWanted 120
Sweaty Socks 67 - BKDogs 118

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 155 : Hustlas
Rebounds : 67 : Hustlas
Assists : 34 : Hustlas
Steals : 13 : BKDogs
Block Shots : 15 : The Ashkickers

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 33 : G. Sankoh (BKDogs)
Rebounds : 23 : G. Sankoh (BKDogs)
Assists : 12 : P. Matkowski (BKDogs)
Steals : 6 : Z. Elsneris (BKDogs)
Block Shots : 6 : T. Colomina (The Ashkickers)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : P. Matkowski (BKDogs) (22 Points, 8 Rebounds, 12 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 33
Shooting Guard : Z. Elsneris (BKDogs) (24 Points, 9 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 6 Steals, 4 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 38
Small Forward : M. Slakteris (Hustlas) (23 Points, 12 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Power Forward : M. Köhler (BKDogs) (27 Points, 18 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Center : G. Sankoh (BKDogs) (33 Points, 23 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 1 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 55

MVP of the evening
G. Sankoh (BKDogs) (33 Points, 23 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 1 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 55

The bad performance of the evening
J. Moore (BOBBBSBURGS) (6 Points, 1 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -8

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : I. Homs (The Beer Bellys), J. Moore (BOBBBSBURGS) : 6 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : M. Velasco (Philly Dribble), L. Baião (San Dominica Warriors), T. Hewitt (BOBBBSBURGS) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : G. Locus (Miami Cleo), I. Gamón (Motor City Waddupdoe), M. Bowie (Motor City Waddupdoe), S. Hatch (Żubr Białystok), G. Sankoh (BKDogs), M. Köhler (BKDogs), Z. Elsneris (BKDogs), P. Matkowski (BKDogs), D. Švarplys (BKDogs) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : L. Rojas (The Ashkickers) : 6 Three points

The best performer : T. Armstead (Lion Rebels) : Rating : 18.0

The worst performer : K. Porter (Sweaty Socks), J. Moore (BOBBBSBURGS) : Rating : 1.5

Best performer is definitely flawed since Armstead only played 13 minutes before getting injured.

Season 59 All Star Results
Big difference from last season's all star predictions where I only got three wrong, all backups. I flat out missed 4 players, including one that ended up starting, and got 9 correct but in the wrong spot in terms of starters and backups, and only got 7 correct in the correct spots. Also, my backup SG analysis was TERRIBLE, apparently, so bad, that I'm trying to convince myself that I just missed seeing the one player (my player) in the list of stats. That's the only thing I can think.

As is tradition, here's a list of my inadequacies:

Big 8 Starting/Backup PG
I flip-flopped Velasco and Begley, trusting that Begley's top 15 EFF ranking would push him over the top, but Valesco's higher AR won out, resulting in 2300 more votes.

Big 8 Starting/Backup SG
With the least amount of 1st place votes for a position, Lion Rebels SG Fabián Carrillo slots in before my pic for starter and now backup, Mário Granja (San Dominica). This is where I took a flyer on Max-Phillip Woesler, even though his numbers are Just Fine. Much like I've done in the past, I think I just overlooked Carrillo, who has an AR of 14 and EFF of 16.5 compared to Granja's 12.5 & 17.3, respectively.

Big 8 Backup SF
I tried to squeeze Paul Lutz into this spot, probably because of the amount of press he gets from Speedtraps (the media will poison your mind!). I was not very surprised to see Luís Alberto Baião (San Dominica) slot in here. Even though he only played 6 games at SF, he deserves a spot at the table based on his overall numbers.

Big 8 Starting/Backup PF
Another flip-flop, with Jérome Bégin topping Hugo Espinosa in what seems like AR weighting a bit heavier than EFF. They're both very comparable, but Bégin, who ranks in the top 1000 in rebounds (898) and is 51st in the US of A in boards deserves the starting nod.

Big 8 Starting/Backup C
I swear I wasn't trying to defer by putting Armstead at back-up. By Efficiency ratings, that's the way it should be. Allen ranks in the top 10 in Div III.11 in rebounds, rebounds per game, FG% (3rd), defensive rebounds, offensive rebounds, and blocks. But Armstead is the top rated player in our league, #7 in our division, and 66th in the USA.

Great 8 Starting/Backup PG
While I had Lorenzo Rojas as the backup, I had no thought of Goran Denković (Hustlas) as even an outside looking in player. The 38-year-old is sporting a 13.0 AR with 11.9 PPG and is ranked 9th in assists and 4th in assist-to-turnover ratio. My pick, Damon Santana sports a 13.5 AR with 16.3 PPG and is #6 in 3FG% and 2nd in steals (top 25 in the division in steals). He's got an average efficiency of 14.8, while Rojas was 14.9, and Denković is 12.8. I don't understand it, but I do think Santana got robbed, losing by 10,000 votes. Stupid fans!

Great 8 Starting/Backup PF
I wasn't too far off on this one, and I'm also pretty surprised by this one. Slot Sławek Klin as starter, fine, but for Patrick Cheatle to miss out on this one was pretty surprising. Cheatle sports the highest EFF rating in the league, matches up in AR to Isidre Homs, and while he's averaging 3 points less per game than Homs, he's outrebounding him by three, grabbing 15.1 per game. Alas, the people have spoken.

3-Point Contest Results
Happy to report I nailed the six three-point contestants. My money's on Gattoni, though Segovia or Glicas could steal it.

Lastly, Juljonas Glicas (Philly Dribble) was the top vote getter with 118k, while Ashkicker's Lorenzo Rojas and Graziano Gattoni 2nd & 3rd with 115k each.

TV Interview 1 hour after Ashkicker vs Warriors game

Reporter: Coach tough loss. What went wrong tonight?

COACH S: What went wrong? Not much. I mean no matter what rankings may say that team is good one. One of the contenders for the league title this year if not THE contender. But we hung with them. It was a good slugfest for three quarters, we just couldn't keep up with them in the final stanza.

Reporter: You had no Marquez, you lose Granja in the 2nd half? How much did that factor in?

COACH S: Obviously losing a player like Mario is a huge blow. He was a big factor in our keeping the game so close. His defense on top of his obvious offensive contribution, but yeah that's a lot to make up when its suddenly gone. But don't take that as us sitting here saying we lost only because of that. We didn't get enough from Blanchet or East. Defensively while I think this may the lowest they've been held to all season. You guys may have to check on that. We still didn't do enough I think on that end. In critical games its all about the D.

On the other hand. We hung with them. There are more positives than negatives we can take from this loss so tip our hats off to Coach Tyler and his team. Hopefully we can get things together in our neck of the woods and see then in the playoffs

Pans out to see interview on tv in Coach Stephenson's office Monday morning

GORDON LONG: Well least Granja won't be out for long

COACH S: You don't know how glad I am to hear that.

GORDON LONG: You think we can take them next time?

COACH S: Sure, you never know really. Half the time in these kinds of game its Hector vs Achilles and it comes to the scales of the basketball gods. We both came out even on the analytical end. Who knows how it comes out if Granja stays on. But that's a tale for another day. Right now we catch our breath with All-Star and then we get back to work and get back in the win column against the Bellys.

GORDON LONG: I think that Samantha Swinson has the hots for you

COACH S: Shut up! Go pick up our lunch and we can hit the film room with the 2nd unit. We got a lot to figure out.

Last edited by Coach Stephenson at 12/19/2022 4:17:51 PM