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I think the analysis without taking this major factor on mind is little bit useless.

Agreed

And especially at this stage of the tournament many CT's can be expected as many teams are very close to being eliminated from next group stage and have to risk little bit more than usual.

And agreed.

But remember that BBalin is not the machine and he is not the PC that can make these calculations during 5-10 minutes. Probably checking the enthusiasms + the GS + the standings of the teams will require at least few hours. And also BBalin is not european and he is looking at the european teams starting from this season.

Summarising all these factors I'd say that BBalin is doing fantastic job.
ALso it could be a good idea if we(europeans) could support his reviews by our own predictions as we are a little bit more aware of the players' skills and the some coach's NT style. Your's for example ;)
I'd try to get in time and write some predictions of the Group Of Death.

Poland 92 Espana 99
This game is really weird. Poland either had better ratings or the same ratings in each category and lost. Both teams went with an inside offense and M2M defense. Unless Poland had way less enthusiasm this doesn't make sense. Poland even pulled off a wondrous(medium) inside scoring rating. Anyway, Poland still has a really good chance of advancing if they win their next ttwo games and Espana is basically in already. POTG: Nuno Betanzos had a team high 22 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds and a 17.0 rating

for me it was also the best game game of last round, but i don't think that Poland lost his game because of a lower enthusiam because this is included quite well in my eyes(or maybe even to strong). Maybe it was a bit unlucky, because game and ratings was close or spain have the better sideskills which didn't effect the rating that much.

I believe both team will make it, but Poland needs to play hard to proceed against srbja so that they maybe got problems in the next round.

I'd try to get in time and write some predictions of the Group Of Death.

Which group is actually Group of Death?

I spent a lot of time by all the work in my club and our NT. So I havn’t enough time analyse in deep way more than our group. And there are some reasons why I don’t want to make public my predictions of games in our group.

Last edited by rwystyrk at 2/28/2011 9:47:23 AM

I'd try to get in time and write some predictions of the Group Of Death.

Which group is actually Group of Death?

Pool A
Team W L PF PA %
1 Italia 5 0 572 400 1.000
2 Hrvatska 5 0 607 465 1.000
3 Türkiye 4 1 582 471 0.800
4 Latvija 2 3 604 569 0.400
5 Bulgaria 2 3 549 531 0.400
6 Belarus 2 3 528 568 0.400
7 Norge 0 5 414 506 0.000
8 Luxembourg 0 5 410 756 0.000

Italia, Turkey, Latvia and Croatia are pretty strong teams. Bulgaria can also make an upset to anyone. So, 5 top-class teams are here..

I see just 4 strong teams. Almost everyone (in any group) can make an upset to anyone by using CT (or even normal against TIE).

Ok, I'll try some predictions for the Pool A.

52 Belarus -- 96 Luxembourg
The game which has no intrigue. The question is: How much? Let's see if inside oriented Belarus destroyes the worst by rating NT in Europe. Belarus has some injury troubles but still has Rakau (8240002). Luxembourg is one of the NTs that can afford having 6th man potential player (11109668)
Last time Belarus has lost to Luxembourg few years ago, but this was the football match.
Belarus +35

50 Bulgaria -- 64 Norge
The must-win game for Bulgaria as in case of loosing they will be left at the 6th place in the group this season, which is not good at all for them. Bulgaria is the other example of inside oriented team. This should be the tough game. Norway has nothing more to lose, they have the last game against Luxembourg and today they should obviously put CT. Bulgaria is in the difficult position here. Probably playing normal should be the best decision as they still have the battle with Belarus in the last round. TIE vs CT will defenitely mean Norway's victory. Normal vs TIE is more difficult to predict. Norway has some GS problems this time and their main hope is the superb defensive skills of all the players, guards especially. I'd choose Norway beating Bulgaria with CT vs normal. Norway +2

24 Italia -- 33 Latvija
Ragans has 2 or 3 dull seasons with his club. They all are going to be dedicated to the training and collecting some cash. Having such a perspective the current B3 winner has decided to try and check his tactical abilities with the Nt Latvia. And he failed. The difficult win over Norway playing with the higher enthusiasm in the first round.. And upset after loss to the highly motivated Belarus. Looks like the community is not satisfied enough with the current performance. And nothing's gonna change after this game. Italy is too strong playing at home court.
2 italian 300k+ centers are a little bit ill and having only averahe GS, but they have good substitutes + the capitain Gabriele Turbato ((6769986)). I don't think that Latvia with huge, extra-huge problems with the roster(2 injured, other top-salary players having GS=6-7) can do something.. Italy wins +30.

And the most important game in this group during all the qualifying tournament:
25 Hrvatska -- 40 Türkiye
Croatia has the last game against Italia and they must-win it in order to book the 2nd place. Turkey being led by GM-Lloyd meets unlucky Latvia in the last round and it should not make huge problems.
SO this game decides it all. I won't be surprised much if one or both of the teams play CT today.
Turkey has some out of GS players, but still good choise. Croatia has only 3 players in proficient GS and that makes Turkey the favourite of the game. Anyway, that's the manager's decisions that will decide how the game finishs. My prediction is Turkey to win +12.

This is too late probably, the games are starting in 30 minutes. But at least there will be smth to read during the big break ;)

Italy had some what nice RB-rating with 3-2 zone!

I do take it into account, like to myslef, I guess I don't write about too much and thats my fault, but this week I was rushing a bit trying to get it done. Anyways I like any and all criticism because it will allow me to be better at these writeups :)

The only group without a dominant 6-0 team is pool B. And what a dramatic matches were played there yesterday- losses for both 5-0 teams (Nederland in consecutive overtime) and now it's all up to last round. 4 teams have theoretical chance for top 2 and no team is secure.