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Informal Draft Guide

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From: CrazyEye

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120597.12 in reply to 120597.3
Date: 12/2/2009 6:03:11 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
What are the chances of getting any given potential rating or age from a player who I've only scouted once? Are players whose age you don't know as likely to be 18 as they are to be 19? Is a potential of three stars just as likely as a potential of four stars or five stars? Thanks!


in the beginning, the age might be 50:50, but your concurrency draft the 18 year old before the 19 year old so the chanche to get 19 J old with below average potential is much higher.

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120597.13 in reply to 120597.4
Date: 12/2/2009 6:05:42 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
I would strengthen your last statement a little bit. Frankly, a 3 star recruit probably isn't going to be starting on any team with an owner who is paying attention. With your starting 300k you should be able to shore up your lineup at least to that. Basically, I would rather take a gamble on an unknown player than get someone who might be a backup. For me, I've moved everyone lower than 4 star / 2 potential to the bottom, since I would basically just cut them outright. I wouldn't expect to get more than 10k for anyone like that (3.4k salary / 6th man potential) on the transfer market, so I'd rather have a 1/20 chance at the player I never got to scout who will sell for 500k.


so you believe after all of your 4-5 Star guys, are drafted you'll find good guys left in the draft?

From: BBGM

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120597.14 in reply to 120597.3
Date: 12/2/2009 8:23:43 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1515
I cannot get you reliable info on Potential for people who have been only scouted once. I just don't have a large enough sample size to say anything reliably although if people are willing you can send me message and I will send you my email where you can send me a screen shot of your draft and I will use it to improve upon and expand the info I have. On age it appears to be close to 50% chance either way that you will get an 18 or 19 year old. For the star ratings these Are the numbers I have currently starting with the highest and goes to the lowest. 15.6% (5) 18.2% (4) 15.1% (3) 14.6% (2) 3.1% (1). I am shocked with the percentage of 1 star rated players but I am kind of glad its so low.

From: BBGM

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120597.15 in reply to 120597.4
Date: 12/2/2009 8:27:03 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1515
I think a lot of the draft strategy depend on how you run your team and what type of training you do. I used to do a lot of two position big training and I would have been happy with a 3 star player that has good potential and that is 18. because I would train them for a season sell them for a decent profit. Not to mention the new economic model which rewards you for developing the players you draft. Now though I tend to agree with you a little more because I am focusing a lot more on 1 pos. training.

Last edited by BBGM at 12/2/2009 9:02:08 AM

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From: BBGM

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120597.17 in reply to 120597.6
Date: 12/2/2009 8:29:24 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1515
I agree with Josef ka here and I would also look closely at fouls if you plan on doing 1 position training.

From: BBGM

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120597.18 in reply to 120597.11
Date: 12/2/2009 8:38:11 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1515
Well to the first part each GM has their own Style and with the current prices on the TL I think draft picks can make mroe of a difference on a team. On the second charge I can only stand on the math, which right now tells me that if you pick a player you haven't scouted you have only an 18% chance they will be a 1 or 2 star rated player. Although I am probably crazy to take these numbers too seriously since I am working with a limited sample size. On another you be surprised at how bad some people draft not mention the randomness of inactive. Although looking at my preferences for picks in the past three seasons I think your top 15 picks to be of great importance. So my advice is to put a lot of thought into them. I have got in the past three seasons my 9th choice twice and my 7th choice one in the second round. I have seen one draft in particular with 8 5 star rated players and 12 4 star rated payers. So you could easily get two worthwhile players with a little thought and effort.

Last edited by BBGM at 12/2/2009 8:44:44 AM

This Post:
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120597.19 in reply to 120597.18
Date: 12/2/2009 10:43:21 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
3333
My draft:
13x5* 12x4* 13x3* 8x2* 2x1*

26 x 1 time scout
22 x 2 times scout

Very happy

This Post:
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120597.20 in reply to 120597.19
Date: 12/2/2009 11:03:47 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1515
Wow thats the best Draft pool that I have seen so far. Thanks for the Numbers.

This Post:
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120597.21 in reply to 120597.13
Date: 12/2/2009 12:08:48 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1515
You're right, I was talking from my perspective there, and frankly, I do believe that. However, I'm in division V with probably two or three players who are paying attention, so that won't apply to everyone. Last year, 3 guys better than 4 star / 2 potential were taken with the last 8 picks in my league, so I know it can happen. If this guy (10592140) is pick #46, then it's an entirely credible strategy.

That said, you are probably right for the majority of people, who are not in a wildly uncompetitive league.

From: broncoWI

To: BBGM
This Post:
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120597.22 in reply to 120597.15
Date: 12/2/2009 12:22:34 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1515
Another very good point. It's becoming obvious that I was only thinking about my position when I said that. I'm doing 1 position big training, and I have the guys that I'm focusing on already, so unless I get someone outstanding who convinces me to sell one of my trainees, they won't get very much training. So mostly I'm focusing on finding people who will sell for a lot, or if they have low potential, could take over a starting spot.

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