if i may chime in . . .
my guess that this will produce an effect similar to HCA, maybe a bit less. by preparing properly for your opponent's tendencies, you may gain perhaps 3 - 7 points. if your opponent does not have predictable tendencies, then you have squandered a similar amount.
i don't why the focus on "luck". to me, it is similar to having a player with a poor FT percentage. (i have one.) in any given game, that player could find himself at the line with the game on the line (!). if i find myself in that situation, is that "bad luck" or did i miscalculate the odds? in this game, i have learned that the latter is the correct answer.
this latest wrinkle is more complex, as you try to anticipate what your opponent may do when he knows that you are possibly trying to anticipate what he may do. this makes the risk calculation difficult -- so difficult that you give up and "flip a coin". i would say if you are reduced to that, then don't engage in the calculation.
for myself, i don't see me using this a lot unless i am facing a team that i wish to dare to do something other than LI. there are several in my league: very strong inside, with guards who exist to pass the ball inside. if i can get them to think i will be preparing for that attack, and they choose some alternative, then i have effectively disrupted their tendencies, which may well be worth more than the 3- 7 points i have lost by "guessing" wrong. if i have "guessed" right, than they still will have a less effective offense.