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I think it is doing what it was intended to do.....You have to change up....the days of LI every game might be over. And that is a good thing. I think it is safer to guess INSIDE and FAST PACE every game..most people are still stuck in this mind set. Change is GOOD!!

change is good, but change is too strong

Last edited by darkonza at 1/1/2014 9:01:45 AM

opponent can predict two times wrong - sum bonuses = +4ent + 4xHCA? - it is crazy :)

Think about this scenario:
One team plays: LI 3-2, predictions: outside fast
Second team plays: RnG 3-2, predictions outside slow

First team will get bonuses for predicting tactics, pace, choosing the right defense, other team would accordingly get penalty for wrong predictions and and choosing the wrong defense what is most important the second team would also get penalty for choosing non-dominant tactic. So from this example we can see that it is possible to get 7 bonuses for one team (not to mention HCA, ent and better GS). I am not saying it's good or bad, but I think it's still riskier to play tactics other than LI or LP.






Last edited by Ghost Master at 1/1/2014 9:07:41 AM

(1ent+HCA) it assumption minimum, maybe it is (1.9ent + HCA)
I don't know what had enthusiasm exactly in second game, 6 or more (max. 6.9)
in the first game for sure ent = 5

Well, going by coachparrot, it'd be 6.3 enthusiasm.

Another set by Codemasters:
Could you elaborate this a little more?
1) If I guess inside oriented tactic and guess is wrong, is it mine inside defense rating which is lower or both defense ratings? And pp100 higher for opponents players and especially for outside players?
2) If I guess inside oriented tactic and guess is correct, again, my defense ratings are higher? What is impact for opponents pp100, all lower, only for inside players?

Another question, is the impact similar (size) for guessing orientation and pace? Is there some kind of bonus for guessing both (orientation and pace) right?

1) Just the outside defense rating. Pp100 should be higher for outside players of the opponents due to your lowered outside defense.
2) Yes, your inside defense ratings are higher. Opponents pp100 is lower only for inside players.
We do not want to disclose the focus vs pace impact ratio at this moment. We believe there should be some things left to our managers to find out for themselves. The same applies the to the bonus question.

From another part of forum. It can helps think abou it.

I don't think it's strong. It will impact only close games like the ones you had in B3 finals. But if everyone keeps playing LI and everyone guess right (fast+inside), there's no point to GDP, right?

I will play LI the whole season in my league where I'm favourite to win it all. I expect everyone to guess correctly against me and I reckon it still won't help. Take a look at my yesterday's game: The guy played 2-3, guessed correctly and put more enth. (I had HCA though). He lost by only 18 points because my subs suck, but he was -29 at end of 3rd quarter. His match ratings suggest he should have strong game against me...

(66277331)

GDP is too strong

two games
(66238156) and (66238163)
in the second match bonuses = +1 ent and HCA
in the first and second match my stats defense are the same
so my one good prediction = 1 ent + HCA
two good predictions = 2 ent + 2xHCA?
but it isn't everything
opponent can predict two times wrong - sum bonuses = +4ent + 4xHCA? - it is crazy
GDP can change the result of +/-30 Points or more!

GDP is too strong

Waaaaaaay too small a data set. Remember that, at times, weaker teams will beat stronger teams anyway. Each option is based on probability. It is possible to toss a coin ten times and get ten heads. It's theoretical vs experimental probability.

He played outside offence against your strong OD. I think his inside attack was too weak but if it was stronger and he went LI or LP, he might have had more chance.

GDP is too strong

two games
(66238156) and (66238163)
in the second match bonuses = +1 ent and HCA
in the first and second match my stats defense are the same
so my one good prediction = 1 ent + HCA
two good predictions = 2 ent + 2xHCA?
but it isn't everything
opponent can predict two times wrong - sum bonuses = +4ent + 4xHCA? - it is crazy
GDP can change the result of +/-30 Points or more!

GDP is too strong

Waaaaaaay too small a data set. Remember that, at times, weaker teams will beat stronger teams anyway. Each option is based on probability. It is possible to toss a coin ten times and get ten heads. It's theoretical vs experimental probability.

He's not talking the results, though, just the defensive ratings (which have been confirmed to be affected by this). There was a flaw in his analysis that exaggerated the apparent results, which was failing to consider that the second game had a missed prediction, thus requiring two predictions to equate to 1.3 enthusiasm plus HCA. Since we don't know the PR manager type involved (or, I suppose, if that shows up in the ratings) and since sublevels could be involved and the minute breakdown was similar but not identicail, and since it's a single data point, there's certainly reason to say it's too soon to pronounce the effect as overpowered. But the post was most certainly not one that needed a reminder of the nature of randomness.

Sorry.