I generally start with 2 points and adjust depending on standings and initial scouting. My best results have come with Scouting Combine + Group Demo. Never had a really bad draft class, but a couple were disappointing because 19 year olds aren't worth as much. Still, I've drafted some solid players and sold a couple for nice money.
Thing that gets me is skill distribution. Chunje has starter potential, but started with 60 TSP. Then you get guys like Craig who is Superstar with 43 TSP.