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Thanks for deleting my post, I apologize for being rude. I hope nobody received substantial mental or emotional damage.

No manager in their right mind is going to spend half a season getting his players FT from average to prominent and seeing their FT% go from 60% to 67% when they could get their players OD increased to sensational from proficient/prominent or JS increased to prolific from strong.

I have a handful of proficient FT shooters who are typically shooting in the .800s. Average free throw shooters usually shoot around .650, give or take.

Of course, if you have crappy stamina, those numbers can dip significantly, but this is definitely not a problem with free throw shooting.

Of course, if you have crappy stamina, those numbers can dip significantly, but this is definitely not a problem with free throw shooting.

Doesn't experience also have an impact, for end of quarter and end-of-game situations?

Of course, if you have crappy stamina, those numbers can dip significantly, but this is definitely not a problem with free throw shooting.

Doesn't experience also have an impact, for end of quarter and end-of-game situations?

I have no specific evidence one way or the other. I do have some observations for stamina.

I don't think it's just luck. Njie, for example, shot ~.770 with stamina ~inept, and .800 or better with average+ stamina. His FTs are proficient, and I haven't trained FTs more than once during the observation period. Given that the observations are over multiple seasons, the statistical significance should be pretty high. That's why I think stamina, at least observationally, is important.

I repeated your experiment, though I decided to improve it in two ways:

(1) set a minimum respectable level of stamina, and
(2) count the total number of free throws taken until I have a total which can make some sort of reliable predictions.

The figure I ended up with was 16 makes in 78 attempts which is ~.200 (the specific observations were: 1-5, 0-7, 1-2, 1-4, 0-8, 4-17, 2-10, 0-4, 0-6, 7-15).

There is quite a bit of variability among observations. High atrocious obviously does much better than low atrocious. Though the average success of a mid-atrocious FT shooter who doesn't have god-awful stamina should probably be about .200. Low atrocious is obviously close to .000, and high atrocious may be even as good as .300.


Last edited by GM-kozlodoev at 6/25/2009 3:40:50 PM

Hmmm... If your observations are correct, it's strange that stamina would have such an important role in free throws. I still think that an atrocious free throw shooter should be closer to about 40%.

My guess is that stamina has the same effect on all skills, but it's easiest to evaluate empirically with free throws.

You think so? My guess is that it would work more like enthousiasm where it has a greater effect on defense and rebounding.

Could be. I have no hard data to consider here. The thing to do is to analyze first and second half data -- if shooting percentages within a game are consistently higher in the second half, then you're right.

is it sure that stamina works in the end game, because i got a very weak team in stamina in the past but i won more quarters in the second half then in the first one.

Actually i don't give a lot on stamina, but would say that maybe the player know how much power they could give to finish the game and low stamina means lower effort from the beginning one.

But stamina is hard to see effect, and iw on't be sure about the importance of it ;) The player rating is affected a lot through it, thats maybe the only point i know for sure.