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I'm not sure why but I got supporter now (I asked Marin how that happened but he hasn't replied yet).

I may launch the code to download all the s40 and s41 games (and complete the s38 for the games that got broken because of slow connection) in the EBBL.



If you know teams other than hrudey who play Princeton please post them here. If we get 2 or 3 teams more, I will get the stats from the leagues where those teams play (let's say 6-8 leagues in total, that's like 1056-1408 games) and then do a table for the whole dataset and a table for only the teams and games where Princeton was played.

We need teams who play Princeton at least 8-10 times a season and in leagues without bots (better if at least D2).

Last edited by Lemonshine at 04/07/2018 21:02:28

Hi mate, you can look at my box scores for your stats. I played Princeton 9 times this season and I played it in the game that offers me the path to the title as well. Hope it will helps you :)

Will do.

Season 19-22 was my Princeton time. I played it for most of the time during this 2.Div turn.

All right I have made some progress with my VBA code and I have done the analysis for the BBBL season 41 (Tom 10 above)

I used all RS, playoff and relegation matches. In 193 total matches 33 teams used Princeton (so 33/296).

The results I get are as follows:

League as a whole
http://tinypic.com/r/2rcsl1f/9

Princeton teams
http://tinypic.com/r/2hq83g0/9

Note that in these 2 tables I revised the TS% formula to account for FT and Foul rate. Now instead of calculating PTS/(2*FGA) which is more of a eFG% calculation, I changed it to (PTS+SH_FOULS*1.9*FT%)/(2*FGA+SH_FOULS*1.9). The 1.9 (and 2.85 for shooting souls on 3 pointers) parameter is there to account for the fact that a small portion of fouls result in 1 FT instead of 2 (or 3). I factored this in also in the TS% for defended shot as we can safely assume that all shooting fouls are the result of a defensive play.

We can already see the difference here:
- Jumpers+3 pointers instead of the league average 56.5% Princeton teams had 71.2%; shot efficiency in these shot categories is bumped by 6-7% (point per shot)
- dunks+inside shots+put backs instead of the league average 26% Princeton teams had 15%; shot efficiency dropped by 7% for dunks (only on guarded ones), 15% in inside shots and 17% on putbacks
- layups dropped a little in number but not in efficiency and they are still more efficient shots than jump shots and 3 pointers.

Conclusions:
- Inside shots need to be limited as much as possible and getting people with DR may help or not depending of whether the result is an inside shot or a layup. We'd have to go further into this to understand what causes the drop in efficiency (i.e. it may be simply a drop across the board, or also the fact that more shots are taken by the worst inside shooters)
- If you don't consider FTs, then overall the TS% (41.7% for both) is very similar between the whole league and Princeton teams. However the foul rate in Princeton is lower than the average tactic used in the league and FT are the most efficient shot in the game after dunks, so Princeton end up being slightly worse at 46.4% v 45.9% (no doubt some tactic, LI?, will have more than the 46.4% average)
- There should be no reason for jump shots to have such a lower foul rate than inside shots (it's more logical for 3 pointers)

I will do an analysis of B3 KO games before returning to this. I suspect hrudey's numbers would show something similar. Nachmahr's games are too old, before changes to 3 point shooting and SB, so they will probably show a worse situation than the current one.



Last edited by Lemonshine at 04/14/2018 21:35:08

Oh yes: compared to the previous tables here I also included the fouls into the defended shots so TOTAL=OPEN+GUARDED, while previously TOTAL=FOULS+OPEN+GUARDED. In the future I may put also the points scored as well so that people can do their calculations if they so wish.


Another thing the numbers seem to indicate is that Assists help more for inside shots than outside shots. For 3 pointers the difference in efficiency between an assisted shot and a defended shot is relatively low (assisted shots are always open shots).

Again we need to check these numbers by position as well, because we may find that the 3 point percentages are beefed up by C and PFs shooting surprisingly well when guarded...which is a theory that has gone around for a long time and may explain how the open v guarded drop is not so large (the theory goes that for big man is better to take a contested 3 pointer than an open one as the FG% is higher when guarded)


Last edited by Lemonshine at 04/14/2018 21:29:05

I will do an analysis of B3 KO games before returning to this. I suspect hrudey's numbers would show something similar. Nachmahr's games are too old, before changes to 3 point shooting and SB, so they will probably show a worse situation than the current one.

Mine might be slightly different because I had some driving on my guards but they had craptastic IS and so the drives appeared to be exceptionally inefficient.