BuzzerBeater Forums

I hope someone actually sees the real drop rate and don't just look at the number 20k.
We have been real stable and only been losing a few managers a week for a real long time.

Yes, the world saw a drop of -0.29% in the user base the past two weeks on average, but over the past 12 weeks, the average percent change has been -0.06%. So, 6 hundredths of a percent decline per week, or 12 users per 20,000 (since that seems to be the number with the most focus of late) per week. This is the slowest decline rate over a 12 week span since I started measuring this in August.

The US has been increasing in users by 0.26% per week over the past 12 weeks. Not sure why, but thought I'd include that data point since I track the World along with the US and Utopia.

The sky is not falling.


Last edited by Iguanadon Joe at 3/28/2016 9:25:43 PM

We should advertise on the Charazay forums or something, people seem less happy at the start of the current season there than usual. Site is apparently being run by one guy at the moment and it's being buggy too.

Half a year ago I looked for an alternative game. I tried several sites and the first thing I always did was to look into the forum and search for a: Is game X dying? - Thread. If so. I would just quit and continued looking.

just saying..

yes i did. that is why i came back and continued playing BB ;)

Not happy, no. I agree that a drop at all is not great, whether it is slow or fast, but at the current drop rate, this game will be around for many more years before even getting down to the 16,000 user range. That is a lot of games, a lot of Friday morning training pops, a lot of drafts, a lot of playoffs, and a lot of fun.

Again, I'm not championing a slow burn downwards to inevitable nothingness.

I just think it is off-base for people to determine the game is 'done' and quit because they think we are shedding users at a rapid pace. It is more of a slow trickle. And based on the recent trend, it seems to be flattening out and could perhaps be turning back around in some countries.

I hope someone actually sees the real drop rate and don't just look at the number 20k.
We have been real stable and only been losing a few managers a week for a real long time.

Yes, the world saw a drop of -0.29% in the user base the past two weeks on average, but over the past 12 weeks, the average percent change has been -0.06%. So, 6 hundredths of a percent decline per week, or 12 users per 20,000 (since that seems to be the number with the most focus of late) per week. This is the slowest decline rate over a 12 week span since I started measuring this in August.

The US has been increasing in users by 0.26% per week over the past 12 weeks. Not sure why, but thought I'd include that data point since I track the World along with the US and Utopia.

The sky is not falling.

The quote from Manon is slightly ironic in that he chooses to ignore the real drop rate over a long period of time while stating that we've been real stable for a long time, which turns out to be about 12 weeks.

To you Joe, I would point out that when you say the last 12 weeks was relatively stable, compared to the rest of the weeks since August, you're actually, without seeming to realise it, admitting that the decline over that earlier period was more severe. It could be argued that this makes the 12 weeks you're so pleased with seem like a blip. Of course, in truth, its impossible to say either way.

I do applaud your efforts though to track the actual figures. I did the same in the previous thread, though I did give the figures themselves, with no interpretation.

I hope someone actually sees the real drop rate and don't just look at the number 20k.
We have been real stable and only been losing a few managers a week for a real long time.

Yes, the world saw a drop of -0.29% in the user base the past two weeks on average, but over the past 12 weeks, the average percent change has been -0.06%. So, 6 hundredths of a percent decline per week, or 12 users per 20,000 (since that seems to be the number with the most focus of late) per week. This is the slowest decline rate over a 12 week span since I started measuring this in August.

The US has been increasing in users by 0.26% per week over the past 12 weeks. Not sure why, but thought I'd include that data point since I track the World along with the US and Utopia.

The sky is not falling.

The quote from Manon is slightly ironic in that he chooses to ignore the real drop rate over a long period of time while stating that we've been real stable for a long time, which turns out to be about 12 weeks.

To you Joe, I would point out that when you say the last 12 weeks was relatively stable, compared to the rest of the weeks since August, you're actually, without seeming to realise it, admitting that the decline over that earlier period was more severe. It could be argued that this makes the 12 weeks you're so pleased with seem like a blip. Of course, in truth, its impossible to say either way.

I do applaud your efforts though to track the actual figures. I did the same in the previous thread, though I did give the figures themselves, with no interpretation.

How would someone ever state that the last 12 weeks incurred the smallest decline as of yet without realizing that all the periods before were more severe? If I somehow hadn't realized that, then the initial observation would not have been possible. It'd be like saying 12 is a larger number than the numbers 1-11, but without knowing those numbers are less than 12.

As far as 'admitting' anything, it is not my intention to cover anything up here. The other 12 week periods were 'more' severe than the latest, but my main theme since tracking this in the first place and my posts following is that it is not as severe as some are making it out to be. There is no reason to jump ship or suddenly make brash wholesale changes to the game in order to save it. Even at the rate the user base is dropping, there are YEARS left of gameplay. Based on many people's posts, that is not the understanding.

Edit:
Thanks for appreciating my efforts. I'd be happy to share the figures, and the average percent change calculation I'm using, for everyone's scrutiny. It may take about a week, though, as my schedule is busy.

Last edited by Iguanadon Joe at 3/29/2016 1:07:10 PM

How would someone ever state that the last 12 weeks incurred the smallest decline as of yet without realizing that all the periods before were more severe? If I somehow hadn't realized that, then the initial observation would not have been possible. It'd be like saying 12 is a larger number than the numbers 1-11, but without knowing those numbers are less than 12.

As far as 'admitting' anything, it is not my intention to cover anything up here. The other 12 week periods were 'more' severe than the latest, but my main theme since tracking this in the first place and my posts following is that it is not as severe as some are making it out to be. There is no reason to jump ship or suddenly make brash wholesale changes to the game in order to save it. Even at the rate the user base is dropping, there are YEARS left of gameplay. Based on many people's posts, that is not the understanding.

I apologise for my wording. I didn't feel that you didn't realise 12 was bigger than 11 to use your analogy, I just felt you brushed over the fact by stressing the stable period.

As for jumping ship, I doubt anyone is is considering quitting because they think the game is dying. I also don't disagree that the game has years left even at the current rate of decline, which no one can argue is lower now than it used to be.

Oh hey, thanks Gully. That's okay, and nice of you to clarify.
On my part, I wasn't trying to brush over the fact that trends have still been negative overall, as that is clearly the case, but I am for sure stressing that they are becoming less negative, and hoping that micro trend shift continues.

The thing that I struggle with throughout the myriad suggestions by people as to how to improve the game (I won't say 'fix' the game, because that implies it is broken), is that they are mostly based upon a magic bullet theory that goes along the lines of "Functionality 'A' is wrong, and thus must be fixed, and must be fixed this way, and it is why everyone is leaving... thus, we must completely obliterate Functionality 'A' and start from scratch, as that will save the day...", when it is not at all clear that it actually would.

The urgency for these improvements seem to stem from this idea that the user base is dropping like a rock, when in actuality, it is more like a feather slowly drifting down from the outer atmosphere, bouncing around, up and down, sometimes hitting an air pocket and dropping faster, and sometimes catching a thermal and rising, but it is a variable, and the reasons for its ebbs and flows are mostly unknown/speculative, thus prescribing a forced answer to what may not be the problem is going to quite possibly cause more harm than good.

The reason I find it important that the decline is slow is that it gives the BB staff time to try things here and there to buoy the user base by implementing changes they determine are acceptable, and fall within the scope of their vision for this game. If the user base was dropping by 1000 per week, then I could see how there would be a need to try something drastic, and I'd be more open to it, otherwise I'd be the last team standing in five short months, and that would be much less fun.



Last edited by Iguanadon Joe at 3/29/2016 7:21:09 PM