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FD - Skills

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112418.15 in reply to 112418.14
Date: 9/19/2009 10:09:22 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
33
"Getting hot" actually has no evidence in fact. There is a great paper on this analyzing basketball.. maybe if i find it later i will post it here.
Oh where did I read a summary of this ?? I thought it was in a recent Reader's Digest, which quotes all it's contents. They talked about "hot hands" and studied NBA records that a player who missed his previous shot was MORE likely to make the next, than someone who had scored on one or two last shots.

This Post:
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112418.16 in reply to 112418.15
Date: 9/19/2009 10:13:55 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.21
Overall Posts Rated:
88
here is a report on a presentation that was given at a sports analytic conference.

bottom line, what you said is true... it is also a very small effect and could be explained by effects on shot selection.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-90/hot-and-heavy--about-nba-shooting.html

This Post:
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112418.17 in reply to 112418.16
Date: 9/20/2009 1:07:11 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
458458
They have also debunked the "clutch player" myth. With the excwption of Larry Bird.

Once I scored a basket that still makes me laugh.
This Post:
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112418.18 in reply to 112418.3
Date: 9/20/2009 1:08:26 AM
Kitakyushu
ASL
Overall Posts Rated:
12341234
Random coin flipper.....very coooooooollll

This Post:
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112418.19 in reply to 112418.7
Date: 9/20/2009 1:38:42 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
196196
You flipped 16 coins of type Postumus - Bronze/Silver Antoninianus - Roman Empire - that one was seriously cool :D

If you do that enough times then there really is no need to worry about getting a formula right or not!!!!!

The randomness of the result far outweighs any logical planning for tactics and training. I feel from my match experiences that ID is much more effective blocking IS than OD is at blocking JS.

More a hunch than anything else so dont shoot me!! I'm going back to that coin flipping site.....oh and dont forget to add in another variable Ned.....

Player X is called for a shooting foul..... is this the equivalent of the coin landing on its side??!!

This Post:
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112418.20 in reply to 112418.19
Date: 9/21/2009 12:21:32 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
409409
The randomness of the result far outweighs any logical planning for tactics and training. I feel from my match experiences that ID is much more effective blocking IS than OD is at blocking JS.



Regardless my own opinion about how defeses work in BB, I would say that this is true in real life. A good "outside" defender might be weaker against an "outside" shot than a good "inside"defender against an "inside" shot.

This might be also part of the GE.

Last edited by Zero, the Magi. at 9/21/2009 12:22:09 AM

This Post:
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112418.21 in reply to 112418.20
Date: 9/21/2009 9:36:23 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
155155
I don't know if this is what the original poster was referring to but I have been having discussions with some pretty experienced managers about the impact of JR. Basically, the theory is that the max jump range you should have on a SG is 10-11. After that, you're better off training JS.

So why have a skill whose usefulness caps out at a certain level?

Run of the Mill Canadian Manager
This Post:
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112418.23 in reply to 112418.22
Date: 9/22/2009 12:43:07 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
155155
Well, the simple answer is that I don't believe the theory is right.


In that case, the majority of the user base, including the current world champion, are assembling their teams based on a flawed theory (yes, I did a little non-randomized poll - perhaps it wasn't representative of the BB population and wouldn't be publishable in a peer reviewed journal but I'm going with it).

I don't know what their evidence is and frankly I didn't even know this theory was out there until my country's NT manager told me about it. But these are managers with lots of wins under their belts. I can't believe that they would all be wrong.

Run of the Mill Canadian Manager
This Post:
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112418.24 in reply to 112418.23
Date: 9/22/2009 12:54:02 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
134134
you should account in this theory the fact that, while for sure a JR greater that 10 has to have some impact on the game, it is so expensive on salary that atleast till now it was better to leave it around 10.

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