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unrealistic Free Throw %

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From: Tangosz
This Post:
22
187744.154 in reply to 187744.153
Date: 7/12/2011 9:42:48 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
573573
I don't know whether the resurrection of this discussion depresses or elates me.

Depresses me because it shows people can't/won't read and don't know anything about statistics.

Elates me because it means those people who know something about statistics will have a nice competitive advantage (and thus enable the success of moneyball-type approaches).

This Post:
22
187744.155 in reply to 187744.146
Date: 7/12/2011 9:48:59 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
147147

Yeah...In Buzzer Beater they are independent of each other...but in Real life...sorry...


Did you miss this earlier post?

So I got the data for 452 players from the 2010-2011 NBA season from ESPN.com. Plotting FT% versus either FG% or 3 point% gives an unimpressive cloud, no sense by eye that there is a relationship between the two. And their linear correlation coefficients bear that out: r-squared for FT% vs FG% is a paltry 0.038. This might reflect the effect of big men, who can have high FG%, but have FT difficulties in. For 3pt shooting percentage is was better, but r-squared was still a small 0.132.

Because there were a good number of players who took very few 3 point shots, where they might have been screwing with the resulting correlation, I removed those players who attempted fewer than 0.3 three pointers per game. That made the r^2 =0.108.


Either you're mathematically clueless or willfully ignorant of what's been written. As I said earlier, it'd be nice to see someone try to disprove this data. I'm guessing you'll instead respond with another emotional rant full of CAPS and hahahahas.


Last edited by Arthur Monay at 7/12/2011 9:49:19 AM

This Post:
00
187744.156 in reply to 187744.150
Date: 7/12/2011 11:09:52 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
3939
Can I ask why that was directed at me?

I have no issue with the current system, in fact I don't think there is much that could be changed. I'm not arguing for realism. I was merely pointing out a simple fact that people can't seem to understand, to improve something on this game, you must train it.

As for the speed of it, these players age 4 times faster than normal human beings, shouldn't it be expected that they train faster as well?

I can accept failure, everyone fails at something. But I cant accept not trying. - MJ
This Post:
00
187744.157 in reply to 187744.156
Date: 7/12/2011 11:28:00 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
i just continued your point.

This Post:
11
187744.158 in reply to 187744.155
Date: 7/12/2011 11:34:24 AM
Kitakyushu
ASL
Overall Posts Rated:
12341234
Either you're mathematically clueless or willfully ignorant of what's been written.

Uh Oh...someone is bleeding, must be that time of the month for you...I could care less about that earlier post...taking a sample from the 2010-2011 season....everybody knows that the art of jump shooting is dead. That is why I took my sample from some of the best pure shooters to ever play the game. If you can't understand that, then you should go back to the trash can that you climbed out of...attacking me..What? And you called me willfully ignorant and your the idiot who used Chuck Person and Cliff Robinson as your examples of pure shooters....Maybe you need to go watch some film on Reggie Miller or Glen Rice and then maybe you could tell the difference.
I'm guessing you'll instead respond with another emotional rant full of CAPS and hahahahas.

Like that was going to stop me from responding to your stupid post.

This Post:
00
187744.159 in reply to 187744.157
Date: 7/12/2011 11:43:53 AM
Kitakyushu
ASL
Overall Posts Rated:
12341234
I'm cool with the current training how it is but some things need to change...A player going 0-500 from the FT line is just plain silly....Why not have all the players start at inept? inept = about 50% which isn't a bad starting point for all players. I do think they should give a little stamina with every training. Maybe 1 pop is stamina for every 10 full trainings the player gets which would only give 3-6 players a stamina sub-level every training session. People would still train stamina because everyone on the team would get it...just a thought

This Post:
00
187744.160 in reply to 187744.158
Date: 7/12/2011 11:49:38 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
147147

Uh Oh...someone is bleeding, must be that time of the month for you...I could care less about that earlier post...taking a sample from the 2010-2011 season....everybody knows that the art of jump shooting is dead. That is why I took my sample from some of the best pure shooters to ever play the game. If you can't understand that, then you should go back to the trash can that you climbed out of...attacking me..What? And you called me willfully ignorant and your the idiot who....


At least I got the emotional part right.

This Post:
00
187744.161 in reply to 187744.158
Date: 7/12/2011 12:04:21 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
573573
I could care less about that earlier post...taking a sample from the 2010-2011 season....everybody knows that the art of jump shooting is dead. That is why I took my sample from some of the best pure shooters to ever play the game.


AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Now that is funny.

This Post:
00
187744.162 in reply to 187744.159
Date: 7/12/2011 12:12:14 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
968968
I like the training system the way it is, but i like starting everybody at atleast inept, but then have it fall like stamina does! S

This Post:
22
187744.163 in reply to 187744.158
Date: 7/12/2011 1:30:36 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
32293229
I could care less about that earlier post...taking a sample from the 2010-2011 season....everybody knows that the art of jump shooting is dead. That is why I took my sample from some of the best pure shooters to ever play the game.


Great point! And after all, the goal of Buzzerbeater is to be a real-to-life simulation of the 1991 NBA season. Thankfully someone had the wisdom to recognize this and to ignore the vagaries of statistics and select a narrow group of players that suits their argument. On an intellectual level, sure, one might argue that you're engaging in selection bias, but the important thing is that BB is about the NBA in 1991 and nobody there ever shot 0% from the line, unless they did in which case we should go back and fix those stats too.

This Post:
11
187744.164 in reply to 187744.163
Date: 7/12/2011 2:28:33 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4343
I think people need to forget about NBA statistics because those are clearly marred by the players practicing free throws and the fact that we're not arguing about players shooting 80%+ - we're arguing about players that shoot less than 30% in this game, which the NBA does not have.

The fact is, that if you go outside with a basketball and you hit 6/10 of your jumpshots and never practice free throws, you're going to hit at least 3/10 free throws on average. There is very clearly a correlation, at least at the sub-60% FT shooting range, and anybody that has played basketball knows that.

I think the real debate is whether the game should follow a realistic approach or not. I honestly don't care either way, but I think a fair suggestion is starting players at 2.5 FT skill (between pitiful and awful) and then, as others suggested, have 1 FT pop for every 4-5 in JS.

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