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Outside attack too strong ?

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125704.155 in reply to 125704.153
Date: 1/5/2010 3:45:26 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Come one what? 11 offensive rebounds and 26 free throws more for the winning team. That's about 15 extra shot opportunities. I don't think any type of offensive flow would have helped.


You forgot the turnover difference. Actually, the number of shots for each team was just about equal (they took 93, we took 90).

The rebounds I get, the huge difference in fouls I don't. You will also notice that our shooting % were just about the same, which makes absolutely no sense (our d should trump their O no matter how you slice it and our flow was a full 1 level higher, facing an outside d that was 2 full levels lower).

That's true, I forgot the turnover difference. As a matter of fact, if we assume (which is of course an approximation) that fouls come mostly from missed two point shots, then the winning team had about 12 possessions more than the losing team.

At 90 points per 100 possessions, this translates to close to 11 points. This certainly makes the result look less unusual. You can't limit your analysis to how attack vs. defense team ratings look.

As far as offensive efficiency is concerned, Canada had a significant edge in three-point shooting, which makes perfect sense given the slightly higher offensive flow and the better outside attack vs outside defense ratio. The problem with losing this game was that you gave up too much in the other zones (ID and Rebs), which allowed Suomi to win by sheer volumes.

Last edited by GM-kozlodoev at 1/5/2010 3:51:46 AM

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
From: 7ton
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125704.156 in reply to 125704.155
Date: 1/5/2010 7:49:58 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Now I have doubts about the value of offensive flow for outside tactics after this match. (18265697) It seems it doesn't really matter, at least in this match. Same no. shots that went in, same no. of assists, and same no. of turnover. And you guess which team has the higher FG%? That team with much poorer offensive flow. Why weren't we just told that offensive tactics are simply outside attack vs OD?

Last edited by 7ton at 1/5/2010 8:11:10 AM

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125704.158 in reply to 125704.156
Date: 1/5/2010 8:11:28 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Now I have doubts about the value of offensive flow for outside tactics after this match. (18265697) It seems it doesn't really matter, at least in this match. Same no. shots that went in, same no. of assists, and same no. of turnover. What does it do?

The PP100 of the team with the lower offensive flow seems lower. This means they took worse shots overall. Whether a shot will go in or not is still a randomized outcome, so nothing is guaranteed.

Last edited by GM-kozlodoev at 1/5/2010 8:13:19 AM

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
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125704.159 in reply to 125704.156
Date: 1/5/2010 8:20:12 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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You made many fouls, adding 20 more freetrows to your opponent that won by 9. He also got home court advantage, and his attack vs defense ratio is better than yours.

Just a few games say nothing. I can give you many examples of a team with a better offensive flow winning the game. It's just what you want to believe. If you are satisfied with 5 games showing the offensive flow is useless to believe it's useless, no problem. If you aren't satisfied with 5 games showing the offensive flow isn't useless, no problem as well. It's just the one you want to believe.

Last edited by BB-Patrick at 1/5/2010 8:20:29 AM

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125704.160 in reply to 125704.159
Date: 1/5/2010 8:29:54 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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You made many fouls, adding 20 more freetrows to your opponent that won by 9. He also got home court advantage, and his attack vs defense ratio is better than yours.

Just a few games say nothing. I can give you many examples of a team with a better offensive flow winning the game. It's just what you want to believe. If you are satisfied with 5 games showing the offensive flow is useless to believe it's useless, no problem. If you aren't satisfied with 5 games showing the offensive flow isn't useless, no problem as well. It's just the one you want to believe.

No you aren't answering my questions. I don't find it unacceptable to lose this match, although I have better inside attack and offensive flow, and my OD was slightly worse. All I want to know is if all it does matter is the attack vs defence rating because I couldn't see any evidence that offensive flow made a difference. I am fine with it if it's true.

This Post:
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125704.161 in reply to 125704.158
Date: 1/5/2010 8:38:57 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
3535
Now I have doubts about the value of offensive flow for outside tactics after this match. (18265697) It seems it doesn't really matter, at least in this match. Same no. shots that went in, same no. of assists, and same no. of turnover. What does it do?

The PP100 of the team with the lower offensive flow seems lower. This means they took worse shots overall. Whether a shot will go in or not is still a randomized outcome, so nothing is guaranteed.

I guess you ain't good at maths.
It's the other way around: 88,6 vs 86,4 average... and the difference is higher when considering only the 3 outside players (which are those determining the outside ratings), 84,4 vs 80.

One single game is surely not enough to draw conclusions, but to me the offensive flow seems to be less important for an outside focus than to play inside... and that's exactly the problem.

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125704.163 in reply to 125704.161
Date: 1/5/2010 8:56:05 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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I guess you ain't good at maths.

You guessed incorrectly.

It's the other way around: 88,6 vs 86,4 average... and the difference is higher when considering only the 3 outside players (which are those determining the outside ratings), 84,4 vs 80.

The team with the inept offensive flow has a weighted PP100 average of 89.7, and the team with awful offensive flow -- 86.2.

The weight is the number of shots taken at each position (which is imperfect, since someone unknown played 4 minutes of SF on the host team, but still better than blindly averaging the PP100).

The key here is that the 63 PP100 of the visiting team's PGs is hugely irrelevant, since only 4 shots have been taken there. Same for the home team's SF and C (2 and 5 shots, respectively).

One single game is surely not enough to draw conclusions, but to me the offensive flow seems to be less important for an outside focus than to play inside... and that's exactly the problem.
This is probably true, but I don't see why it's a problem.

People used to raise hell about the three-center tactic that made look inside invulnerable. Now, when the three-center tactic is more or less dead in the water, since you need some ball handling and passing skill at the SF position to be effective, it's suddenly a problem. Inside tactics can work just fine -- just make the necessary adjustments and know when to use them.

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
From: Exos

To: 7ton
This Post:
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125704.164 in reply to 125704.156
Date: 1/5/2010 10:47:58 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Now I have doubts about the value of offensive flow for outside tactics after this match. (18265697)


With the risk to expose myself to ridicule here I would say that Princeton is not an outside tactic at all. From what I understand from the manual this tactic is slow and avoids long 2p shots. In my last PL-game with Princeton however the shot distribution was spread out very evenly, leading me to the conclusion that Princeton has no real focus at all.
I don't know if this is true, if not please correct me ;)

Cheers, Exos

This Post:
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125704.165 in reply to 125704.164
Date: 1/5/2010 10:59:55 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
225225
Princeton certainly seems to operate mostly like a slow-paced outside tactic. I typically see boatloads of three-pointers shot when Princeton is selected, as well as a boost in outside ratings.

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
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