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Normal vs. CT: worries

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From: sneakyB

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25446.16 in reply to 25446.14
Date: 4/21/2008 3:04:50 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
44
Yeah well, good luck to you but you need to know that you have a good chance of loosing, playing normal vs. crunch.

In the french league, last season's winner in first division got his ass kicked in this year's cup quartefinals by a team from DIV. He played normal with 12 in enthusiasm, against crunch for the DIV.

From: Emilio

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25446.17 in reply to 25446.14
Date: 4/21/2008 3:09:38 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
329329
I´m also in first position of my league (II.3 of spain) with 20-2.
For me, it is very risky to play normal in 1-match playoff. You risk all the season work and just one lucky day of your opponent...
Arriving to the final with low enthusiasm is not the end of the world. You have 3 matches to plan you strategy.
You will see tomorrow night posts after PO matches...
I´m not telling that most normal vs CT will loose, but more than expected.

¡Me aburro! (Homer Simpson)
From: Ragans

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25446.18 in reply to 25446.17
Date: 4/21/2008 3:21:50 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
3030
Anyway I will take the risk and play Normal...otherwise there was no sense to build up the Entusiasm before the PO, I have played Normal already vs CT in away court and I won, I was playing all the time TIE against normal, away or at home and I won....I think there is no problem of playing Normal....
Remember there will allways be losers and someone who will always blame about something....and I believe that this game is not just about TIE/N/CT.....!!!

Plus I will have home team advantage in all games except 2nd final game...

Last edited by Ragans at 4/21/2008 3:22:44 PM

From: Emilio

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25446.20 in reply to 25446.18
Date: 4/21/2008 3:36:54 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
329329
I agree with most of the things you say. Good teams should not have problems.
But some managers with slightly better team will have problems.
In your case, I don´t know your team or your opponent's team, but I see that you have win by 10 points at his field with the same attitude (PIC-PIC or N-N).
Now you play at home, but he can play CT. This way you will get a close match.
You have a slight advantage but not so big. Enthusiasm should be similar.

I don´t like this, but with the new engine, 1-match playoffs are mostly related to the CT-N decision. Next season they will change it.

¡Me aburro! (Homer Simpson)
From: Ragans

This Post:
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25446.21 in reply to 25446.20
Date: 4/21/2008 3:41:56 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
3030
I cant find right now but BB-Charles posted somewhere some few days ago what happen in different variations(porobability to win or lose) If you play at home or away and options which both teams take TIE/N/CT, I am not sure but as I remember from his post that If I play at home ant choose normal and my opponent CT and plays away...it is aprox 50:50

From: Emilio

This Post:
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25446.23 in reply to 25446.21
Date: 4/21/2008 4:10:57 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
329329
I have also read it.
Teams playing TIE are tipically like your team: A good team who plays against not so good teams, so they can win even TIE vs. Normal. So the stadistics are too optimistics...
Anyway, even with this, don´t you think that 50:50 is too risky for a quarter of final playoff? Only one match... It is like throwing a coin!

¡Me aburro! (Homer Simpson)
From: Ragans

This Post:
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25446.25 in reply to 25446.23
Date: 4/21/2008 4:21:16 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
3030
well but 50:50 that was only for CT/N and home and away option....there is still few factors:
1. Your tactics choice VS opponents tactics choice
2 Your enthusiasm VS Opponents Enthusiasm
3 Your players skills VS Opponents player skills
4 Random factor :)

Anyway If you think about finals and promotion, I think it is suicide to CT, because for example if you have E=9, after CT you will have E=5-6, and what you will gona do in next game? again CT? then your E will be aprox 3, and what to do in finals then?

From: Ragans

This Post:
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25446.26 in reply to 25446.23
Date: 4/21/2008 4:31:03 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
3030
Finally found:

From BB-Charles:

By the way, here are some aggregate statistics, so that we can look at TiE/CT effects as a whole instead of individual examples. These are obviously not randomly-selected games, since teams attempt to choose TiE/CT for tactical reasons.

When both teams play TiE, the home team has a record of 417-277.
When the home team plays TiE against normal, it has a record of 829-826.
When the home team plays TiE against CT, it has a record of 104-200.
When the home team plays normal against TiE, it has a record of 1262-483.
When the home team plays normal against CT, it has a record of 703-759.
When the home team plays CT against TiE, it has a record of 265-38.
When the home team plays CT against normal, it has a record of 1171-357.
When the home team plays CT against CT, it has 205-107.

I did not include normal vs. normal, since those will be mostly bot games, but globally the home team edge is at around 63%.

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