BuzzerBeater Forums

Since it says EGM-Perpete, I still assume he is aware of changes. So when he replied to your post (if the BB's fiddled the GS formula) with "Nah, each season start, we have people wondring if the GS has changed. Apart the recent changes with the stamina, it hasn't." - That is about when I believe him, because I simply do not see any reason to believe the GS formula has been changed. My team is not behaving in a different way than I am used (sometimes I'm lucky at the start of the season, sometimes not, this season I'm somewhere in between). Also in the league around me, I do not see any results that alarm me. But hey, that's just me.

Of course, you have the right to question Perpete's words. Which is fine. The thing that I dislike about your post though, is that you ask for evidence to back up his claims, but do not show any evidence yourself. You only show a current situation and say it was different last season. The behavior of players under the same circumstance last season however you don't show. For that reason it is, as I said before; empty words. You're taking on the role of a little kid who says "I can run twice as fast as I could last year. Unless you prove me otherwise". How about you show us the speed you can run with now (perhaps your personal best from a match) and show us the speed you used to run with last season (your personal best from a match in the past?).
But no, apparently when I ask for this I am building a straw-man argument.

Let me explain it for you so maybe you understand :). From a statistical point of view comparing apples and apples in this kind of analysis is hard. Even you got that. Therefore I went the extra step and picked from this sample:

Thanks for that jab^^ Now let's get back to actual content instead of throwing mud or taking/making things personal. It's too bad you removed a part of your message (to be exact this part:)

This sample can be replicated for previous seasons and since I've had players with 0 minutes in the first week in the past I can guarantee you they did not have a double drop in GS. For the team I linked every single player playing 0 minutes or 130+ had a double drop.

I was about to react to the above before you removed it. I could show you 2 of my players which were injured (or which I didn't use) and made 0 minutes which dropped 2 levels in GS and afterwards one. There is a great function in Buzzer-manager which keeps track of that.

But since you already removed that part of your post, I guess you also figured out it is not as unusual as you thought. Too bad you didn't write that but simply removed it.

Keep in mind that there are several players that in the first week who popped in GS with low minutes (below 48), this guy double popped to proficient with 48 minutes: (34618432). This alone is not in line with what is commonly accepted about GS and I therefore think that Brutus and others are perfectly entitled to question whether or not something has been changed

Players who pop in gameshape below 48 minutes is nothing new to me. So I don't see any reason to make a fuss about this.
About the double pop for the player who made 49 minutes, I honestly don't know. But it is a fact that there is randomness to the GS update (just as to a lot of other things in this game). I have had players with 48 minutes double pop in GS, but I can not recall if this was at the beginning of the season. Either way, to me, it doesn't raise a red flag until someone can show me that this is truly out of the ordinary compared to previous season (and once again, that would need a valid sample size because this can simply be an outlier).

Of course, you have the right to question Perpete's words. Which is fine. The thing that I dislike about your post though, is that you ask for evidence to back up his claims, but do not show any evidence yourself.

For the 4th time, I have nothing to prove as I did not claim anything as a fact, even something as little as boosting minimally the impact of stamina. Perpete did and therefore it seems perfectly logical that he backs up his claims, or that the only developer left in the game (Marin) comes here and says that he has made no change, this season and last season and the season before (just in case, for the avoidance of doubt).

I only floated the idea that something unusual could be going on as I've seen weird GS behaviour and so were other people. My personal favourite is a top team in my league who had 7>6 on 12 out 13 players and the following week they went all back up, some with a single pop some with a double, including a double pop on this fellow (15038631) who got injured and only played 43 minutes. Are you starting to see a pattern where weird stuff happens and poor minute allocation leads to improvements in GS, sometimes double pops, while "conventional" minute allocation leads to drops? However, now for the 5th time, being puzzled and wondering if something has happened is not the same as claiming to be sure that nothing has happened and imply that people here are moaning like they moan at the start of every single season.

Since it says EGM-Perpete, I still assume he is aware of changes.

I urge you to check the ask BBs and following threads, so you will understand how the communication on GE changes works between the devs and GMs work. I'm going to go out on a limb and loosely quote hrudey here, when he clarified that the development team is currently a single person, Marin, who does all the changes. That leaves no doubt for interpretation.

Thanks for that jab^^

Well, I thought I'd reply in the same tone, jabs included.

I guess you also figured out it is not as unusual as you thought. Too bad you didn't write that but simply removed it.

Again we seem to be having some communication issues. I removed it because it was not pertinent. I know that in S31 a 0 minute player can drop either by 1 or 2 levels (and sublevels), my problem is whether that was the case in the past too (and the earliest you need to go is the first week of S30) and what the GS pattern was for players who got consistently 0 minutes every week thereafter. The variability (or lack of it) in today's GS results after the first week given a specific amount of minutes is not in question, we all agree it's there and it was not the point to begin with The problem is whether the swings are different and depend on minutes played in a different way than they did in the past.

Anecdotal evidence in the past pointed at better results in the first 2 weeks when overplaying your players a little (meaning closer to 72, maybe higher). This season many people who overplayed got drops and it looks like double drops and double pops are also more frequent than in the past. The problem is that it's difficult to compare because you'd need to compare to a large enough sample of GS updates from a season or more ago. So what we're doing in this thread is speculating. Everyone except for Perpete, who is mathematically sure nothing has happened, there are no bugs and no changes have been made (despite not being the one making those changes) since the last official changes.

Players who pop in gameshape below 48 minutes is nothing new to me. So I don't see any reason to make a fuss about this.

The player I linked previously double popped in the second week with 43. This player (36692852) double dropped the first week on 27 minutes and TRIPLE POPPED on 40 minutes in the second week...

So yeah I don't have a crystal ball, but I think questions on GS are fair

Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/16/2015 6:46:44 PM

Listen, we can keep on shouting things. Keep on discussing on what points we disagree. Or we can show what we know. In stead of meaningless words all over.

I can show you one of my players who double dropped last season when he made 0 minutes after an injury, perhaps that takes away a part of your doubts. Find that here- http://oi61.tinypic.com/sxna0i.jpg . And yes, that was last season (as you can see by the date mentioned on the left as well).

I can't find a double pop on 48 minutes on my team, I didn't update my buzzer-manager stats each week, so no confirmation directly from my team (because I think I had it happen last season of the season before, but I can't be sure of that anymore). Within the old buzzerbeater forums I was able to find people who had a double pop after 50 min. http://www.buzzerbeater.com/community/forum/read.aspx?thr... in the first week of the season. Of course it's not conclusive evidence or anything, but it is something.

Now let's see what you have to share.

The player I linked previously double popped in the second week with 43. This player (36692852) double dropped the first week on 27 minutes and TRIPLE POPPED on 40 minutes in the second week...

I, to my knowledge, have never seen a triple pop. Do you use buzzer manager to keep track of your players? If you could show us/me at least this part of your claim, I think a lot more people would be inclined to confer over your point of view on the GS matter.
Because right now I tend to think you're wrong (also because you claim your player double dropped on 27 minutes, which cleary would only have been 9 playing minutes taken into account for the GS update). To me this means you don't keep the right track of your players, but hey, perhaps you can backup your claim. I surely hope you can, it would suddenly make this topic a lot more interesting.

To me this means you don't keep the right track of your players, but hey, perhaps you can backup your claim. I surely hope you can, it would suddenly make this topic a lot more interesting.

Dude, seriously? Just drop the condescending tone and stop making a fool of yourself. I'd understand if you had something to say, but you came in this thread just to attack me, accusing me and debating based on things I've never said. There is only so much buffoonery I can take.

You don't need to be the owner to be able to see my player's GS movements in the last 3 weeks. This is common knowledge, how the hell do you scout your opponents? I don't think you're ignorant on the matter, so you must be just lazy. Since I'm extremely generous, I will help your laziness, so brace yourself because you're about to have to eat your crow.


Note: for the 6th time (but you seem not able to understand this very basic concept) the guy you showed did not double drop after a season reset. Nowhere I said a player could not double drop. I said that pretty much an entire team double dropped in the first week this season and I've never seen anything like it. I hope you can understand the difference, but I'm starting to lose faith and chalk you off as a lost cause. Good night.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/17/2015 7:19:20 PM

Hi everyone.

In my experience, GS can be frustrating, so I started tracking it to find the "magic minute thresholds" that would guarantee a positive outcome. Found out that there aren't any, but you can kind of guide it along.

This season, for instance, I've got several guys who have played an amount of minutes that had high odds of giving them a bump up each week, based on history, yet have stayed at 7.

Here, let me share one:

Minutes played: 53-56
Starting GS: 7
Historic Outcome (excluding weeks when GS is trained): 3% dropped to 6, 34% stayed at 7, 48% climbed to 8, and 14% double popped to 9.

So there's a 1/3rd change of staying at 7, and when more than a third of my players don't pop up when they have these high odds to do so, I can get a little surly. But then, I remember that there are other weeks when I get more pops than I should, or I play too many minutes with some guys, and they stay at 9 (if you play over 81 minutes, it's a 50% chance you'll drop to 8 and a 14% chance you'll plummet to 7), and I breathe a sigh of relief on Friday morning.

All in all it sounds like there may be some unluckiness going on, but in a game with this many teams and players, that is bound to happen. At the same time, there are teams out there who are basking in glorious GS pops.

Iguanadon

I'm waiting for you on friday!

I think there are 2 things you are not accounting for.

1) GS is probably not a single week calculation except, most likely, for the first week after GS is reset. Whether it's the mean over 3 weeks or the trend a player has had in the previous 3 weeks nobody knows for sure.
2) GS is affected by stamina now. How much? Nobody knows. Have they changed the impact of Stamina in the last few seasons? Nobody knows.

Ultimately I will say this: 8 and 9 stamina players need around 70 minutes and maybe more, but the most important thing is consistency within an optimal range. To get away with something like 70-50-70 you need to be lucky.

And just to be clear, in S28 playoffs and finals (75646720) I managed to have my ENTIRE 12 man team on proficient GS without GS training (s28 was the first season after the Stamina change). I got the ratings in the linked game playing Playoff Normal and 270k overall salary (my starters were 40k-50k-17k-60k-38k). s28 was the first time that I noticed that previous weeks' trends seemed to be important to where GS ends up.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/17/2015 9:05:29 PM

Exactly right. I'm definitely not accounting for those two things. I've read a bit about them in the forums, but right now I don't incorporate them in my percentages. Unfortunately, my sample size would be too low for 8 and 9 stamina players, as I never tend to carry those guys.

That is quite impressive that you had your whole team at 9 GS for the playoffs back in S28.
I've given up more weeks of skill training than I'd like to count by opting to train GS when the playoffs were imminent.

Yeah I had 8 players on strong and they all overplayed/stayed put compared to the previous 2 weeks. I suppose it was mostly luck. I had 2 pops in ID that week too.

Again I would note that stability yields better results. If you need to stray from stability going up in minutes seems to reward more often than a lower minutes, but ultimately it will penalise you when you when you go down in the following weeks (so my theory, but it is speculation, is that 60-60-68 or 65-65-75 will give better results than 60-60-55 or 65-65-58, but you will be penalised in the following week if you revert to 60 or 65).

Also, as you can see sometimes there is a clear disconnection between the Official GS and the Real GS (extrapolated from DMI). For example note Week12 and Week14 for player 1 or, even more evidently, Week10 to Week14 for player 2 (especially in week 14 where the official GS is 7, but the DMI suggests a 9). I think it's possible that this inconsistency is caused by some adjustment been made to account for then number of games in a week (week 13 and 14 can have only 2 games). This is also speculation.

Here is my 2 guys on my main team with 9 stamina:
Player1..............DMI...Official GS...Est GS...Prev week mins...Change
Week5(purchase)...418900......7......7.09......87
Week6....................478800......7......7.40......78......0.31
Week7....................804900......8......8.27......94......0.87
Week8....................590300......8......7.79......63......-0.48
Week9...................1380400......9......8.93......63......1.14
Week10.................1380400......9......8.93......83......0.00
Week11.................1219400......8......8.79......79......-0.14
Week12...................737700......8......8.14......65......-0.65
Week13...................485400......7......7.43......84......-0.71
Week14...................758600......7......8.18......61......0.75

Week1(reset)........386300......7......6.87......52......-1.31
Week2...................477900......7......7.39......71......0.52
Week3...................813300......8......8.28......72......0.89



Player2..............DMI...Official GS...Est GS...Prev week mins...Change
Week5(purchase)...163500......6......6.44......67
Week6....................658200......8......8.92......62......2.48
Week7....................678200......9......8.96......85......0.04
Week8....................322400......8......8.00......65......-0.96
Week9....................677300......9......8.96......62......0.96
Week10...................681700......9......8.96......70......0.00
Week11...................680800......9......8.96......64......0.00
Week12...................412700......8......8.35......61......-0.61
Week13...................684400......9......8.97......55......0.62
Week14...................683500......7......8.97......46......0.00

Week1(reset).........192000......7......6.96......32......-2.01
Week2....................358200......8......8.15......73......1.19
Week3....................278600......7......7.76......67......-0.39




Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/18/2015 12:53:44 PM