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top Draft player probability ?

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This Post:
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305593.16 in reply to 305593.12
Date: 8/11/2020 5:07:29 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
14901490
That 19 years old player still can become a top player
Not quite. That player has almost no chance of starting in the NT in any BB Nation that is not a micronation, so he won't be a 'top player'.
- First, they need to be HoF, but unfortunately it's more likely they will be MVP.
- Second, they need to have real top notch skills because the salary requirements for 19yo (A+, A etc) are more lenient, in the sense that a A+ 19yo may have much shittier skills and bigger holes than a 18yo because the rating is based on salary not skills (so a few 8s and a lot of 1s can still end with A+...this is harder with skills limited to 7)
- Third, even if you do get a great 19yo HoF, it will likely be not enough because any 18yo will have a Youth Trainer for a whole extra season, not to mention that extra training year is at the fastest possible speed

There is no way anyone in his right mind would take a 19yo 5/5 A+ over ANY 18yo 5/5. And if you want to make a decent to good starter for D1, then you don't need to waste money on the draft: just pick up decent MVP or better prospect on the TL after the draft. You will save a lot of money.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 8/11/2020 5:31:51 PM

This Post:
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305593.17 in reply to 305593.15
Date: 8/11/2020 5:15:34 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
14901490
I never considered 19yo to be equal to 18yo, even in the short period of time between when they increased max skills to 8 and when they introduced the Youth Trainer. That is because, even with max skills increased to 8, on average a 19yo still had worse comparable skills and allowed for less customisation. They are definitely much worse again now, although not completely useless as they were originally.

This also explains why 19yo are dirt cheap on the TL after they are drafted. If you plan on drafting 19yos, you should just buy them on the TL, it's much cheaper.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 8/11/2020 5:32:55 PM

This Post:
11
305593.18 in reply to 305593.9
Date: 8/11/2020 5:22:36 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
14901490
Feast your eyes on how many lucky people we have here who can't find a single 5/5 prospect. I refrained from replying last week, but 19yo shouldn't even be mentioned in this conversation. They are inferior in multiple ways, nobody should care or waste money in scouting them. Incidentally, these are the favourite target of those users who routinely try to make some money at the beginning of the season (with the buying and reselling scam), as they are very cheap after the draft.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 8/12/2020 9:45:43 AM

This Post:
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305593.19 in reply to 305593.18
Date: 8/12/2020 5:31:47 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
260260
So I don't think its a 99% chance.

In my opinion I would rather say 50% chance to have a 5/5 18yo among the 24 players.

This Post:
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305593.20 in reply to 305593.19
Date: 8/12/2020 7:13:06 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
14901490
Listen, when we used to scout the draft manually back in the day there were plenty of drafts with no HoF/ATG and plenty of drafts with no MVP with 3.5k+ salary. Even if they improved the starting skills somewhat there will still plenty of drafts with no real top prospect.

My last 2 pickups in the draft (when I scouted) were both 5/5. When I picked Marichal he was the ONLY 5/5 18yo and when I picked Banuelos he was one of 2 (there were 2 more 19yo 5/5, which I had to scout because I was picking third).

This Post:
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305593.21 in reply to 305593.18
Date: 8/12/2020 9:40:58 AM
Vilkiukai
II.3
Overall Posts Rated:
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Second Team:
Vilkiukai II
Totally agree with you, 19 years old prospects are absolute waste. Never understood why people happy with these. Only reasonable occasion in my eyes is when team is homegrown.

Overall game went to some ridiculous power creep since season 25 or so when I last played. 120 tsp players used to be absolute nt beasts, now they complementary players in div 2 lol. Same with drafts, they used to be so shitty, like average 1,5 player 5/4 per draft, every 3rd league had an mvp and hof you could see in your dreams, and nobody even dreamed about atg. Now people complain that it is quite hard to draft hof.... Like Popovic said during finals 'it is not supposed to be easy", I can say similarly about draft, it shouldn't be easy to draft potential nt player.

This Post:
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305593.22 in reply to 305593.12
Date: 8/12/2020 3:41:57 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
117117
That 19 years old player still can become a top player.Special if he will be a pot 10 or 11 player with 60 or more starting skills with good distribution


A 60 tsp 19 year old is only as good as an 18 year old between a 45 and 50 tsp. Since my guy isn't A+ he'll be at least a season behind the top level 18 year olds.

This Post:
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305593.23 in reply to 305593.22
Date: 8/12/2020 5:41:04 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
14901490
My current trainee had 21 pops in his 18yo season and he had a lvl 4 youth trainer for a few weeks (lvl 6 after that) and might have had 1 week with a level 4 trainer (lvl 6 otherwise). Anyone can do the math from there.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 8/12/2020 5:41:40 PM

This Post:
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305593.24 in reply to 305593.23
Date: 8/12/2020 7:31:49 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
117117
That's why I said at least. Even without the youth trainer, we're talking at least 15 tsp head start for an 18 year old.

This Post:
22
305593.26 in reply to 305593.25
Date: 8/13/2020 4:57:52 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
14901490
130 TSP? What planet do you live on, man? Do you even have a clue of what a 'top player' is? Do you not see the NON-NT players with 140+ TSP on B3 teams? If you're lucky 130-135 is good enough to regularly mop up minutes in any normal NT, not to start, unless it's a big man with truly elite primaries (can't be MVP) or a gimmick player. There are currently 80 players with 130+ TSP on the TL.

The problem here is not how much I know (newsflash: I have reached 150 TSP on my trainees, so I know enough), but how much you don't know and the disinformation you spread.

Players with 130 TSP are good players, they will help you win in D1, and that's about it. They are quite common and they won't start in most NTs. I trained a Superstar to the mid 130s in the past, 130 v 150 is like 110 v 130: night and day.

I currently have 2 players STARTING for my NT (meaning they started every game as far as I know), I've had other trainees playing for my NT in the past and one of my inferior trainees from my last batch did regularly play for Italy as a backup for a couple of seasons. You may remember him (40191705) since he started against Serbia in this game (52791) that eliminated your NT from the competition. Acerbi is the perfect example: he was just shy of 140 TSP -with 1 RB- and he spawned at 19yo, but, as I said, he was the inferior trainee, he only had 2 skills better than my main trainee (which I drafted), one being SB. I also always trained while competing in D1 in England and D2 (mostly) in Utopia. Note that if a player gets low or no minutes in the NT you don't get any merch or fan survey bonus.


Now go on, keep explaining about how good 19yo draftees are, maybe with 8 or 9 potential, because you can reach 130 TSP while using a farm D3 team.The only reason they are good at all is that they can be bought cheap on the TL, but this defies the whole purpose of scouting and drafting them.


PS. lol now I have even seen the players you listed, eh. Man, how clueless you are.
(42024651) Garbage, that's just thoroughly incompetent training: 21 HA/DR 12 (!) PA and no outside shooting to speak of. If you wanted to make a LI PG the PA is just too low, if you wanted to make him a SF, his ID is nowhere near enough and JS also too low. 1.5 million TPE seems about right...bought for 4 million lmao. 1v1 was trained so much that there was no time to train primaries...sad, but unfortunately these things happen with incompetent trainers and 19yo trainees: because you have 1 fewer training season, you either have to give up some 1v1 training, leading to less elastic or you do set up the elastic effect as you would with a 18yo and end up like this, with the player severely lacking primaries left and right.

(42023913) This guy played a total of 4 games out of 10 for your NT this season. His inside skills (IS) must be so bad that he has not been selected, not even as a backup, ahead of 100k, 80k and EVEN 66k salary players for tactics other than outside tactics.

The other 2 are not even fringe NT players like the first bad one you linked. Logically, they must be worse than him and not good enough to mop up minutes instead of injured players or players in bad GS.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 8/13/2020 10:27:17 AM

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