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Oh well you counted relgating teams not other way around. i guees you should then cause there are countries like Ghana, where nobody relegated, so actually countries where at least four teams relegatingm better for non-bot teeams relegated should be considered. But still many of those leguaes are useless to argue competetiveness point. When you have notm uch more than 20 teams Div 1 can hardly close itself as there is usually not enough established teams yet.

So your number s is still just a number withou no analysis impact I guess.

Edit: (and re-edit, typoes)
I checked BB-stats and there are 41 countries of that 96 that by dull numbers of users today currently don't have enough non-bot teams to provide full relegation from Div 2 (i.e. have less than 96 users) which could one bordeline to consider. As all smaller countries Div 2 teams play in environment where relegation is a non issue (of them only Malaysia have fully filled Divs 2). So counting with those 41 countries influenced any reliability of that % you posted. Only 40 countries have at least somewhat nearly filled Div 3 (300+ users) and those i think are countries we could consider for realiable relegatin ration for Div 1 leagues. (size and starting season would still matter and ideally we should use those criterias to get more specific numbers but there wouldn't be enough league to work with then).


Last edited by docend24 at 3/29/2010 11:07:17 AM

I really think that you have to concede to me at this point... I have shown you quite definitively that the rate at which newly promoted teams demote is not below what you should expect and want for a competitive division 1.

also i checked into it... and i am using the playoff results to determine what i mean by relegated and promoted... so i am counting relegations that were subsequently nullified by bot promotions as demotions. I am not counting teams that were bot promoted and then subsequently relegated in the count. and really that isn't an important analysis in the larger countries, where top teams very rarely go bot.

I have jsut edited my post, take it as answer. Thank for effort I appreciate you looking at it but I think those numbers are oof because of the reasons I posted by editing myp ost.

I think forrest mention that he looked into the top33 countries!

That means you will most probably don't have bots relegating from Division I

I think forrest mention that he looked into the top33 countries!

That means you will most probably don't have bots relegating from Division I

Where? Oh I see it. this forums is not friendly to post happening meanwhile you editing your post or posting a new post.

Last edited by docend24 at 3/29/2010 11:09:09 AM

Here (136516.173)

of the top 33 most populated countries in buzzerbeater (country 33 has 414 users), meaning 33*4=132 division 1 promotions, there were 60 subsequent demotions, making it a 55% survival rate, which i agree is lower... but also is just about where you thought it should be, and where we think it should be too.

fwiw.. in the top 10 countries, it was 16 demotions.. or 60% survival rate.

Ok then I missed that as we were posting simultanouesly. I still think there is an unreasonable effort to make gaps in the future.)

Another thing to analyse could how much those Divs actaully changes and how much teams were "always there" like in last 5 season in a row. But I'm not asking you to do that.

I could look at that.. but actually, if your model of what is correct is 4 random teams are demoted every season that means either parity if you are an optimist, or means there is no effect of manager skill on the game.

meaning if there is a lot of turnover, how could it be possible that someone is actually "good" at this game in any meaningful way?

I meant it more liek probability to actually catch up with top team of the country.

We are looking at numbers in our country and have a bit different resultzs I guess it is a local thing then.

It seems that my point about the big8 vs great8 was missing during this big "conversation".

I still would like to see some reaction on that: (136516.170)