All right I have made some progress with my VBA code and I have done the analysis for the BBBL season 41 (Tom 10 above)
I used all RS, playoff and relegation matches. In 193 total matches 33 teams used Princeton (so 33/296).
The results I get are as follows:
League as a whole
http://tinypic.com/r/2rcsl1f/9Princeton teams
http://tinypic.com/r/2hq83g0/9Note that in these 2 tables I revised the TS% formula to account for FT and Foul rate. Now instead of calculating PTS/(2*FGA) which is more of a eFG% calculation, I changed it to (PTS+SH_FOULS*1.9*FT%)/(2*FGA+SH_FOULS*1.9). The 1.9 (and 2.85 for shooting souls on 3 pointers) parameter is there to account for the fact that a small portion of fouls result in 1 FT instead of 2 (or 3). I factored this in also in the TS% for defended shot as we can safely assume that all shooting fouls are the result of a defensive play.
We can already see the difference here:
- Jumpers+3 pointers instead of the league average 56.5% Princeton teams had 71.2%; shot efficiency in these shot categories is bumped by 6-7% (point per shot)
- dunks+inside shots+put backs instead of the league average 26% Princeton teams had 15%; shot efficiency dropped by 7% for dunks (only on guarded ones), 15% in inside shots and 17% on putbacks
- layups dropped a little in number but not in efficiency and they are still more efficient shots than jump shots and 3 pointers.
Conclusions:
- Inside shots need to be limited as much as possible and getting people with DR may help or not depending of whether the result is an inside shot or a layup. We'd have to go further into this to understand what causes the drop in efficiency (i.e. it may be simply a drop across the board, or also the fact that more shots are taken by the worst inside shooters)
- If you don't consider FTs, then overall the TS% (41.7% for both) is very similar between the whole league and Princeton teams. However the foul rate in Princeton is lower than the average tactic used in the league and FT are the most efficient shot in the game after dunks, so Princeton end up being slightly worse at 46.4% v 45.9% (no doubt some tactic, LI?, will have more than the 46.4% average)
- There should be no reason for jump shots to have such a lower foul rate than inside shots (it's more logical for 3 pointers)
I will do an analysis of B3 KO games before returning to this. I suspect hrudey's numbers would show something similar. Nachmahr's games are too old, before changes to 3 point shooting and SB, so they will probably show a worse situation than the current one.
Last edited by Lemonshine at 4/14/2018 9:35:08 PM