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Draft strategy - eliminating luck

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This Post:
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164171.2 in reply to 164171.1
Date: 11/17/2010 8:07:07 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
952952
Summary:

1st option (Scouting combine + interview):

- learn age and height of 48 players
- interview of appx. 10 players
POINTS: 40

2nd option (Group demonstration + interview)

- learn skills from "Scouted once" of 19 players
- interview of appx. 6 players

POINTS: 22

3rd option (Scouting combine + Group demonstration + interview)

- learn age, height and skills from "Scouted once" of 19 players
- interview of appx. 8 players

POINTS: 44

So based on your experience from last season's draft and these options, what's your advice? How can you minimize luck factor in draft?

Thanks for the replies!

This Post:
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164171.3 in reply to 164171.2
Date: 11/17/2010 8:15:48 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1717
I was pretty successful using Group Demonstration + Scouting Combine and then interviewing all 18-year olds with 5-star and ultimately a couple of 4-stars as well. That would need close to 40 total scouting points.

Major advantage is that it allows you to draft a decent player you know everythign about. The natural disadvantage that comes with that is that you only reveal half of the draft class so you may miss some great prospects, but there's always risk involved.

If I'd have more points to spend, I'd go for unscouted 18ys with a nice height/position combination.

This Post:
00
164171.4 in reply to 164171.3
Date: 11/17/2010 8:26:16 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
952952
I was pretty successful using Group Demonstration + Scouting Combine and then interviewing all 18-year olds with 5-star and ultimately a couple of 4-stars as well. That would need close to 40 total scouting points.

Major advantage is that it allows you to draft a decent player you know everythign about. The natural disadvantage that comes with that is that you only reveal half of the draft class so you may miss some great prospects, but there's always risk involved.

If I'd have more points to spend, I'd go for unscouted 18ys with a nice height/position combination.


But wait, Group Demonstration reveals only rough estimates. Have you interviewed also them or was a rough estimate+age+height of 19 players enough for you?

You say you interviewed all 18-year olds, but in the last sentence you say you'd go for unscouted 18ys...so you didn't scout all 18 year olds?

This Post:
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164171.5 in reply to 164171.4
Date: 11/17/2010 8:55:59 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
209209
He said he interviewed all 18 years old ranked 30-48 (1-2 ball prospects) who turned out 5 ball after group demonstration. Then I believe he used remaining points to scout unknown skills 18 yo with good height from those ranked 1-29 who didn't do group demonstration. You hope to find a good one early so you still have enough points to interview him and find out his potential.

"Air is beautiful, yet you cannot see it. It's soft, yet you cannot touch it. Air is a little like my brain." - Jean-Claude Van Damme
This Post:
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164171.6 in reply to 164171.5
Date: 11/17/2010 9:23:43 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
952952
Aha I see, I must have missed that.

I think I will use Scouting combine when available and then see how many 18-year olds under 6' 4'' there are. If I have enough points to interview them all, I will not use Group demonstration at all. By end of season, I think I should have 48 scouting points available.

This Post:
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164171.7 in reply to 164171.1
Date: 11/17/2010 10:22:36 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
4040
I kind of overlooked that "scouting combine" itself doesnt give me the opportunity to interview a players right after. That is not a good news. But still seems like a best choice to do both. If there is a need to get 18y olds and with best height, is not possible to do it other way.

So after I got like 15 points now, I raise my investment only to 20k p/w which gives me 30 points totally at the end. That means I can do both and interview 5 players. The rest will be on my guess and luck.

I think that the best way isnt to spend as much money as possible, but to get most from minimal investment. Because once you invest more than 10k p/w, it means that you are paying lot more for every scouting point, which doesnt seem like a effective strategy. So the key is (in my opinion) to pay in advance only necessary volume of funds and wish yourself a luck.

Last edited by aigidios at 11/17/2010 10:23:41 AM

This Post:
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164171.8 in reply to 164171.7
Date: 11/17/2010 12:06:19 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
952952
I kind of overlooked that "scouting combine" itself doesnt give me the opportunity to interview a players right after. That is not a good news. But still seems like a best choice to do both. If there is a need to get 18y olds and with best height, is not possible to do it other way.

So after I got like 15 points now, I raise my investment only to 20k p/w which gives me 30 points totally at the end. That means I can do both and interview 5 players. The rest will be on my guess and luck.

I think that the best way isnt to spend as much money as possible, but to get most from minimal investment. Because once you invest more than 10k p/w, it means that you are paying lot more for every scouting point, which doesnt seem like a effective strategy. So the key is (in my opinion) to pay in advance only necessary volume of funds and wish yourself a luck.


Well I would like to depend on luck as little as possible, even if it means spitting some extra 100 or 200k of money.

In 12 weeks, I will spend 480k of money. In return I hope to get one great rooke, one good and one decent. Great rookie can go for twice the money I will spend for the whole scouting. This doesn't mean I scout with intention to sell, but the investment of 480k seems small for three good rookies which are combined worth over 1 million on TL. Meanwhile, if you spend about 200k and have bad luck, you just spent 200k for almost nothing. Isn't better to spend additional 100-200k and get a great player?

This Post:
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164171.9 in reply to 164171.8
Date: 11/17/2010 12:23:30 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4040
It also depends on your league postition and the average scouting expenses in your league, but I prefer to think that usually Im able to get 1 such player like that at most. See a past drafts in your league and you can figure out how many MVPs which could be for something, are really in there. Im used to see that if I have high expectations, I get usually the same like when I invest the "reasonable" volume of money.

I spend in 12 weeks like 180k for 30 points (10k-20k investments). Which is by 300k less than you do. While during such investment I will miss just potential of some 18y/height players, while if I would invest more, there is still no insurance in that other team will not pick my best scouted player. Then it really hurts. For that 300k (which I usually miss in bidwar) I can buy a player which will win some games and pay for himself, while the best way for a payback in draft is to have a lucky guess.

This Post:
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164171.10 in reply to 164171.6
Date: 11/17/2010 4:04:38 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
986986
If you use Scouting combine, then calculate if there is at least ten 18 years old players in that group (rank 30-48). Then you should use Group demonstration to save some points. If there is less than 10, then it is cheaper to scout 18 years old players one by one. If you are looking only short players, then I think there will be less than 10 players so you will not use Group demonstration.

This Post:
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164171.11 in reply to 164171.10
Date: 11/17/2010 7:19:43 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
194194
As far as I can remember, if you use Scouting Combine, you can find the height and the age of all the draftees.
I wish if Scouting Combine could also reveal the position of the players...(even if it requires 20 points). It's very sad to see a player with around 185 cm turning out to be a center...:P

This Post:
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164171.12 in reply to 164171.11
Date: 11/18/2010 3:45:08 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1717
That would not be sad for me, that would be promising! Such a player guarantees well-developed big men skills and his little height makes him perfect for a fast guard training. If trained properly, in the end you end up getting a great, worthy balanced player.

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