BuzzerBeater Forums

Hi everyone.

In my experience, GS can be frustrating, so I started tracking it to find the "magic minute thresholds" that would guarantee a positive outcome. Found out that there aren't any, but you can kind of guide it along.

This season, for instance, I've got several guys who have played an amount of minutes that had high odds of giving them a bump up each week, based on history, yet have stayed at 7.

Here, let me share one:

Minutes played: 53-56
Starting GS: 7
Historic Outcome (excluding weeks when GS is trained): 3% dropped to 6, 34% stayed at 7, 48% climbed to 8, and 14% double popped to 9.

So there's a 1/3rd change of staying at 7, and when more than a third of my players don't pop up when they have these high odds to do so, I can get a little surly. But then, I remember that there are other weeks when I get more pops than I should, or I play too many minutes with some guys, and they stay at 9 (if you play over 81 minutes, it's a 50% chance you'll drop to 8 and a 14% chance you'll plummet to 7), and I breathe a sigh of relief on Friday morning.

All in all it sounds like there may be some unluckiness going on, but in a game with this many teams and players, that is bound to happen. At the same time, there are teams out there who are basking in glorious GS pops.

Iguanadon

I'm waiting for you on friday!

I think there are 2 things you are not accounting for.

1) GS is probably not a single week calculation except, most likely, for the first week after GS is reset. Whether it's the mean over 3 weeks or the trend a player has had in the previous 3 weeks nobody knows for sure.
2) GS is affected by stamina now. How much? Nobody knows. Have they changed the impact of Stamina in the last few seasons? Nobody knows.

Ultimately I will say this: 8 and 9 stamina players need around 70 minutes and maybe more, but the most important thing is consistency within an optimal range. To get away with something like 70-50-70 you need to be lucky.

And just to be clear, in S28 playoffs and finals (75646720) I managed to have my ENTIRE 12 man team on proficient GS without GS training (s28 was the first season after the Stamina change). I got the ratings in the linked game playing Playoff Normal and 270k overall salary (my starters were 40k-50k-17k-60k-38k). s28 was the first time that I noticed that previous weeks' trends seemed to be important to where GS ends up.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/17/2015 9:05:29 PM

Exactly right. I'm definitely not accounting for those two things. I've read a bit about them in the forums, but right now I don't incorporate them in my percentages. Unfortunately, my sample size would be too low for 8 and 9 stamina players, as I never tend to carry those guys.

That is quite impressive that you had your whole team at 9 GS for the playoffs back in S28.
I've given up more weeks of skill training than I'd like to count by opting to train GS when the playoffs were imminent.

Yeah I had 8 players on strong and they all overplayed/stayed put compared to the previous 2 weeks. I suppose it was mostly luck. I had 2 pops in ID that week too.

Again I would note that stability yields better results. If you need to stray from stability going up in minutes seems to reward more often than a lower minutes, but ultimately it will penalise you when you when you go down in the following weeks (so my theory, but it is speculation, is that 60-60-68 or 65-65-75 will give better results than 60-60-55 or 65-65-58, but you will be penalised in the following week if you revert to 60 or 65).

Also, as you can see sometimes there is a clear disconnection between the Official GS and the Real GS (extrapolated from DMI). For example note Week12 and Week14 for player 1 or, even more evidently, Week10 to Week14 for player 2 (especially in week 14 where the official GS is 7, but the DMI suggests a 9). I think it's possible that this inconsistency is caused by some adjustment been made to account for then number of games in a week (week 13 and 14 can have only 2 games). This is also speculation.

Here is my 2 guys on my main team with 9 stamina:
Player1..............DMI...Official GS...Est GS...Prev week mins...Change
Week5(purchase)...418900......7......7.09......87
Week6....................478800......7......7.40......78......0.31
Week7....................804900......8......8.27......94......0.87
Week8....................590300......8......7.79......63......-0.48
Week9...................1380400......9......8.93......63......1.14
Week10.................1380400......9......8.93......83......0.00
Week11.................1219400......8......8.79......79......-0.14
Week12...................737700......8......8.14......65......-0.65
Week13...................485400......7......7.43......84......-0.71
Week14...................758600......7......8.18......61......0.75

Week1(reset)........386300......7......6.87......52......-1.31
Week2...................477900......7......7.39......71......0.52
Week3...................813300......8......8.28......72......0.89



Player2..............DMI...Official GS...Est GS...Prev week mins...Change
Week5(purchase)...163500......6......6.44......67
Week6....................658200......8......8.92......62......2.48
Week7....................678200......9......8.96......85......0.04
Week8....................322400......8......8.00......65......-0.96
Week9....................677300......9......8.96......62......0.96
Week10...................681700......9......8.96......70......0.00
Week11...................680800......9......8.96......64......0.00
Week12...................412700......8......8.35......61......-0.61
Week13...................684400......9......8.97......55......0.62
Week14...................683500......7......8.97......46......0.00

Week1(reset).........192000......7......6.96......32......-2.01
Week2....................358200......8......8.15......73......1.19
Week3....................278600......7......7.76......67......-0.39




Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/18/2015 12:53:44 PM

Anyway I would like to see players who start every game have the best shape. The only reason you can't start a guy 3 games is the GS restrictions are unrealistic and the subpatterns COMPLETELY SUCK since they got rid of blanks. IN a close game your guy plays 44 minutes. IN a blowout he plays 20. ITs just plain dumb. Predictable for someone that has played this game forever??? YES...but doesn't make it realistic, practical or fun. ...

Look at this and keep in mind that my player Cornaglia has 124 TSP and 6 stamina, Nicolini has 76 TSP and 4 stamina and MacPhorich has 92TSP and 5 stamina (you can gauge the difference between them by the ratings):
(85009260) Nicolini starts and Cornaglia is backup and both are on a low 8 GS. Minute split: 12-36 (12-24 when Garbage Time began, so you can project it to 16-32 over a full game)
(85009267) MacPhorich starts and Cornaglia is backup, MacPhorich is on 9 GS while Cornaglia is at 8. Minute split: 23-25 with no Garbage Time.

If you use CPfDC you can manage to play your better players significant minutes, but avoid the dreaded 40+ marks.

I do understand that your point is much more than simply "minutes are difficult to manage", but I'm just trying to clarify that it's not impossible.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/18/2015 5:17:44 AM

Here it is the pic again:
http://i59.tinypic.com/2cf9ova.jpg


Edit Perpete:
For this time, I'll edit the message, but deleting a message is really easier. If someone doesn't want his message deleted, he can just follow the rules and consider any other users has a human being not worthy of being insulted, no matter how harsh the level of that insult is.

Edit Lemonshine: I reposted it, so no need to amend the rest. I will only say that the person I replied to made extensive use of sarcasm and was very personal. Maybe I did go even further, but honestly it would be hard to call that a real insult.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/18/2015 8:06:05 AM

We can agree on that.