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Season 12

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From: Dawson

This Post:
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136480.203 in reply to 136480.202
Date: 5/15/2010 9:52:28 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
134134
That's low. =(

I'm a harbinger of love in a world of rage and hate. No reason to be that way.

From: Harper

This Post:
00
136480.204 in reply to 136480.203
Date: 5/15/2010 10:14:09 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
3434
I think he deserves a CT next time you play him (especially since you play me right afterwards)

This Post:
00
136480.205 in reply to 136480.204
Date: 5/22/2010 4:39:38 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
744744
At the end of inter-league play, it's pretty obvious where the power conference is around here.

Big 8 (29-35)
W&C 5-3
PHA 5-3
NYJ 5-3
MAC 5-3
SLD 4-4
DH 4-4
SNS 1-7
CON 0-8


Great 8 (35-29)
TF 6-2
HOB 6-2
GK 6-2
PBS 5-3
PEN 4-4
DOG 4-4
SBC 3-5
TUG 1-7

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Keep your friend`s toast, and your enemy`s toaster.
This Post:
00
136480.206 in reply to 136480.205
Date: 5/22/2010 4:42:06 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
103103
The power conference is the 13 of us that won more than 1 interconf game? I'm confused...

This Post:
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136480.207 in reply to 136480.206
Date: 5/22/2010 5:28:25 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
744744
The power conference is the 13 of us that won more than 1 interconf game? I'm confused...


Yes, you are.

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Keep your friend`s toast, and your enemy`s toaster.
This Post:
00
136480.208 in reply to 136480.205
Date: 5/23/2010 12:58:02 AM
New York Jests
IV.30
Overall Posts Rated:
219219
It's not our fault Jelme and Goon won a combined 1 game.
Also I'm pretty surprised I won 5 games.

This Post:
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136480.209 in reply to 136480.208
Date: 5/23/2010 8:46:33 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
744744
It's not our fault Jelme and Goon won a combined 1 game.
Also I'm pretty surprised I won 5 games.


Getting your team healthy and in decent GS didn't hurt.

Those numbers of course don't take into account games that were punted in leiu of Cup games (my games against SBCT and Riverdogs come to mind), the CT vs TIE by W&C during the All-Star week, or the timing of Gunners going Postal. But looking at the top 6 teams in each conference, it seems pretty obvious who is stronger as a whole.

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Keep your friend`s toast, and your enemy`s toaster.
This Post:
00
136480.210 in reply to 136480.209
Date: 5/23/2010 8:52:39 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
744744
And speaking of going Postal, I've been toying with the idea of blowing up my team for 2-3 seasons, and actually sat down a couple days ago and sketched out a plan to see how long it would take to get my team back in the position I am now.

My calculations put it at around 20 seasons, though I'd have around $25million to spend once I got back here.

I don't think I'm gonna do it.

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Keep your friend`s toast, and your enemy`s toaster.
This Post:
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136480.211 in reply to 136480.210
Date: 5/23/2010 9:38:24 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
103103
I think in terms of total economic costs/benefits, "blowing it up" only pays out if there are external circumstances, or if you wind up in an untenable position like what TUG found himself in. Otherwise, the rest of us are condemned to incremental upgrades/rolling roster changes.

This Post:
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136480.212 in reply to 136480.211
Date: 5/23/2010 11:35:26 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
744744
I think in terms of total economic costs/benefits, "blowing it up" only pays out if there are external circumstances, or if you wind up in an untenable position like what TUG found himself in. Otherwise, the rest of us are condemned to incremental upgrades/rolling roster changes.


For the most part, you're right, but I'm looking at it from the perspective of no plan whatsoever of being competitive for a minimum of 4 seasons. It's the only way a team purge really makes sense.

I'll try to give a synopsis of my notes without being too lengthy here.

1. Sell all current players. Probably best done right before the POs or at the beginning of the season. I made the assumption that most teams in II have a team value of ~$20M-$30M+ on the TL, and used a safe estimate of ~$25M.

2. Buy 4 18yo trainees. Assuming ~$2.5M per trainee (which I feel is a high estimate, but you should be buying some pimps here, I estimated $5k/wk salaries on these guys), that leaves us with ~$15M. (I'm also assuming 2-position training, as I didn't bother to calculate 1-position training.)

3. Fill out the rest of the team with absolute scrubs, the worst and cheapest players you can find on the TL (or better, via the draft); the lower the salary, the better. The skills of the scrubs are unimportant, as you plan to lose anyway, and the more you save on their salary each week, the more cash goes in your team coffers. There are plenty of 1k salary players in the game right after the draft, and five of them should be plenty. These, combined with your 18yo trainees, put your team's weekly player wage bill at around $25k, but let's say $30k/week just to be on the safe side.

4. Downgrade staff. Basic doctor & PR guy, and depending on the level of trainer you have and his salary, either keep or replace, but in the interest of keeping your wages as low as possible, I budgeted $1M (which should be much more than necessary) over the course of the first 4 seasons to keep your trainer lvl decent and his salary relative to his trainer level. Calculating his wages (and the doc/PR, who simply get fired/replaced when their salary gets sily) into the 4 seasons, subtract ~$3M (including the $1M from above) over the course of the 4 seasons. That leaves us with ~12M.

5. Train and lose. A lot of both. This involves a drop of divisions, probably to at least IV, if not V.

6. Move and repeat. Whether training guards or big men, keep your best two, sell the other two (~$3.5M each, to be safe*), move the trained 22yos to SF, and do the whole process over again (4 more trainees @ ~$2.5M each, leaving us a net loss of ~$3M here, putting our total bank at around $9M), this time for 5 seasons.


That was longer than I thought, and sadly, I'm not done. Around step 6, your player salaries start to mean something, but a couple of seasons into it, you should be winning games here and there, and by the fourth or fifth season, right before switching (either from big men to guards or vice versa), your team will actually have a pretty massive strength in one sector that opponents will need to address to beat you.

What I haven't mentioned yet is that even though you're sucking pole in the standings and your fans hate you throughout this, you're making a profit every week whether or not you have a home game. If you start in II, your TV contract alone will be worth about double your total outlay on salaries, and you'll still get some form of attendance and merch no matter how much you lose. This also assumes zero Cup revenue.

Stopping here to leave room for my footnote. Make any sense?

*-assuming the economy doesn't take a giant crap. If it's at a pivotal moment, like when trainees are turning over for fresh 18yos, it's a wash, as the kids will be cheaper. I've also neglected to add that while falling thru divisions, you might pick up a great draft pick along the way for free.

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Keep your friend`s toast, and your enemy`s toaster.
This Post:
00
136480.213 in reply to 136480.212
Date: 5/23/2010 1:18:20 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
103103
Oh, I agree it makes sense, mostly. I'd take issue with the $20M+ team value assumption, but my players don't have TPE within a few weeks of me training them anyway, and rarely have TPEs when I buy them (I'm one of those wierdos that insist on defense and side skills *gasp*), so I may not have a great grasp of what my team's really worth -- and this is my inaugural d.II season anyway.

If you're going to 2-position train and lose, why not 6-man training? 48-ing a player isn't that hard, and you don't get messed up that often, especially if you don't actually care about winning.

I wouldn't go basic on the doctor -- 5 week injuries can vaporate a LOT of trainee value. My assumption when I first switched to single position training was that the value of training 18yos with extreme height was somewhere in the neighborhood of $75k-$100k/week in their "formative" (under-22) years. Now, granted, my analysis back then wound up settling on low potential trainees because I was assuming there was no potential premium by 22 years old, so I didn't want to pay through the nose for trainees that I wasn't going to train more than 3-4 seasons. So if you're going with high potential training, you might wind up with more of a $50k-$75k weekly return to training, or even less. But is saving 10-15k/week on the doctor worth the significantly higher risk of +5 injuries?

The other thing you wind up implicitly doing with that plan is playing a market game rather than a basketball manager game. Don't get me wrong, I'm not one of those people that thing the transfer market should be regulated to the point where day trading or carry trading is impossible, or greatly laments inflation/deflation/etc in the player market -- I just know that personally I don't come here to play the stock market. If I wanted to do that, I'd go over to Yahoo Finance or something. Each his own, I suppose, but it seems to me that the basic premise of this is that player transfer prices will remain flat or drop while you're banking cash. If player transfer prices move higher, then your banked capital is being eroded and you're not getting the returns of higher income from being in a higher division.

I can say for certain that there's a big financial gap between even just II and III -- my player salaries are 30-odd percent higher than last season and I'm still clearing almost four times the typical weekly profit (salaries from ~180k last season in III to ~250k this season; typical weekly profit from ~40k to ~150k). Granted, I won't make a deep playoff run here, but if I were to burn the team and deliberately relegate, my gross receipts would probably be cut by 50% or more for each league level I dropped.

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