the only right answer is: it depends on your opponent, and it might be partially gambling. Last year I gambled right.
the only obvious thing is: CT in the third game.
:)
I tried to figure out a system last year, and believe me it took me days. In the end I came up with the result that there is no 1 way. Depending on how your opponent chooses his CT and TIEs you will always have a chance of loosing the title... So gamble; stick to your plan, and hope your opponent plays it the way you gambled, if not... well bad luck. Rememeber either he, or you will have bad luck, but someone has got to have it. :)
I haven't been at BB long, but I would think of the Normal/TIE/CT puzzle as an intricate game of Rock-Paper-Scissors.
Obviously playing CT in the first game for either side is probably suicidal. Why? Enthusiasm wrecked for the remaining games meaning the only chance would be back to back CT...pretty obvious what is coming if the opponent is paying attention.
So Normal or TIE? I should mention that I am assuming equivalently talented teams. Being far superior means that you could probably do whatever you liked to win. Normal has the benefits of giving a superior chance to win the first game. Your opponent knowing this may allow the first game to fall by playing TIE(knowing that if he wins he probably has it in the bag). Double TIE and its again...anyone's ball game with the advantage in the 2nd game to the Home team there.
The second game is dictated by the results of the first. TIE and win and you get your choice on how to finish off the opponent. He almost certainly can't afford to build enthusiasm...he is facing elimination here.
Normal vs. TIE and win and likely you should be playing tie...the opponent knows this and may risk a tie to steal game 2 and setup for best case in game 3.
Like I said...many permutations, but the biggest part is guesswork on your opponent and trying to dictate the games to your advantage.