BuzzerBeater Forums

I'm waiting for you on friday!

I think there are 2 things you are not accounting for.

1) GS is probably not a single week calculation except, most likely, for the first week after GS is reset. Whether it's the mean over 3 weeks or the trend a player has had in the previous 3 weeks nobody knows for sure.
2) GS is affected by stamina now. How much? Nobody knows. Have they changed the impact of Stamina in the last few seasons? Nobody knows.

Ultimately I will say this: 8 and 9 stamina players need around 70 minutes and maybe more, but the most important thing is consistency within an optimal range. To get away with something like 70-50-70 you need to be lucky.

And just to be clear, in S28 playoffs and finals (75646720) I managed to have my ENTIRE 12 man team on proficient GS without GS training (s28 was the first season after the Stamina change). I got the ratings in the linked game playing Playoff Normal and 270k overall salary (my starters were 40k-50k-17k-60k-38k). s28 was the first time that I noticed that previous weeks' trends seemed to be important to where GS ends up.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/17/2015 9:05:29 PM

Exactly right. I'm definitely not accounting for those two things. I've read a bit about them in the forums, but right now I don't incorporate them in my percentages. Unfortunately, my sample size would be too low for 8 and 9 stamina players, as I never tend to carry those guys.

That is quite impressive that you had your whole team at 9 GS for the playoffs back in S28.
I've given up more weeks of skill training than I'd like to count by opting to train GS when the playoffs were imminent.

Yeah I had 8 players on strong and they all overplayed/stayed put compared to the previous 2 weeks. I suppose it was mostly luck. I had 2 pops in ID that week too.

Again I would note that stability yields better results. If you need to stray from stability going up in minutes seems to reward more often than a lower minutes, but ultimately it will penalise you when you when you go down in the following weeks (so my theory, but it is speculation, is that 60-60-68 or 65-65-75 will give better results than 60-60-55 or 65-65-58, but you will be penalised in the following week if you revert to 60 or 65).

Also, as you can see sometimes there is a clear disconnection between the Official GS and the Real GS (extrapolated from DMI). For example note Week12 and Week14 for player 1 or, even more evidently, Week10 to Week14 for player 2 (especially in week 14 where the official GS is 7, but the DMI suggests a 9). I think it's possible that this inconsistency is caused by some adjustment been made to account for then number of games in a week (week 13 and 14 can have only 2 games). This is also speculation.

Here is my 2 guys on my main team with 9 stamina:
Player1..............DMI...Official GS...Est GS...Prev week mins...Change
Week5(purchase)...418900......7......7.09......87
Week6....................478800......7......7.40......78......0.31
Week7....................804900......8......8.27......94......0.87
Week8....................590300......8......7.79......63......-0.48
Week9...................1380400......9......8.93......63......1.14
Week10.................1380400......9......8.93......83......0.00
Week11.................1219400......8......8.79......79......-0.14
Week12...................737700......8......8.14......65......-0.65
Week13...................485400......7......7.43......84......-0.71
Week14...................758600......7......8.18......61......0.75

Week1(reset)........386300......7......6.87......52......-1.31
Week2...................477900......7......7.39......71......0.52
Week3...................813300......8......8.28......72......0.89



Player2..............DMI...Official GS...Est GS...Prev week mins...Change
Week5(purchase)...163500......6......6.44......67
Week6....................658200......8......8.92......62......2.48
Week7....................678200......9......8.96......85......0.04
Week8....................322400......8......8.00......65......-0.96
Week9....................677300......9......8.96......62......0.96
Week10...................681700......9......8.96......70......0.00
Week11...................680800......9......8.96......64......0.00
Week12...................412700......8......8.35......61......-0.61
Week13...................684400......9......8.97......55......0.62
Week14...................683500......7......8.97......46......0.00

Week1(reset).........192000......7......6.96......32......-2.01
Week2....................358200......8......8.15......73......1.19
Week3....................278600......7......7.76......67......-0.39




Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/18/2015 12:53:44 PM

Anyway I would like to see players who start every game have the best shape. The only reason you can't start a guy 3 games is the GS restrictions are unrealistic and the subpatterns COMPLETELY SUCK since they got rid of blanks. IN a close game your guy plays 44 minutes. IN a blowout he plays 20. ITs just plain dumb. Predictable for someone that has played this game forever??? YES...but doesn't make it realistic, practical or fun. ...

Look at this and keep in mind that my player Cornaglia has 124 TSP and 6 stamina, Nicolini has 76 TSP and 4 stamina and MacPhorich has 92TSP and 5 stamina (you can gauge the difference between them by the ratings):
(85009260) Nicolini starts and Cornaglia is backup and both are on a low 8 GS. Minute split: 12-36 (12-24 when Garbage Time began, so you can project it to 16-32 over a full game)
(85009267) MacPhorich starts and Cornaglia is backup, MacPhorich is on 9 GS while Cornaglia is at 8. Minute split: 23-25 with no Garbage Time.

If you use CPfDC you can manage to play your better players significant minutes, but avoid the dreaded 40+ marks.

I do understand that your point is much more than simply "minutes are difficult to manage", but I'm just trying to clarify that it's not impossible.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/18/2015 5:17:44 AM

Here it is the pic again:
http://i59.tinypic.com/2cf9ova.jpg


Edit Perpete:
For this time, I'll edit the message, but deleting a message is really easier. If someone doesn't want his message deleted, he can just follow the rules and consider any other users has a human being not worthy of being insulted, no matter how harsh the level of that insult is.

Edit Lemonshine: I reposted it, so no need to amend the rest. I will only say that the person I replied to made extensive use of sarcasm and was very personal. Maybe I did go even further, but honestly it would be hard to call that a real insult.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/18/2015 8:06:05 AM

We can agree on that.

Also, as you can see sometimes there is a clear disconnection between the Official GS and the Real GS (extrapolated from DMI). For example note Week12 and Week14 for player 1 or, even more evidently, Week10 to Week14 for player 2 (especially in week 14 where the official GS is 7, but the DMI suggests a 9). I think it's possible that this inconsistency is caused by some adjustment been made to account for then number of games in a week (week 13 and 14 can have only 2 games). This is also speculation.

Here is my 2 guys on my main team with 9 stamina:
Player1..............DMI...Official GS...Est GS...Prev week mins...Change
Week5(purchase)...418900......7......7.09......87
Week6....................478800......7......7.40......78......0.31
Week7....................804900......8......8.27......94......0.87
Week8....................590300......8......7.79......63......-0.48
Week9...................1380400......9......8.93......63......1.14
Week10.................1380400......9......8.93......83......0.00
Week11.................1219400......8......8.79......79......-0.14
Week12...................737700......8......8.14......65......-0.65
Week13...................485400......7......7.43......84......-0.71
Week14...................758600......7......8.18......61......0.75

Week1(reset)........386300......7......6.87......52......-1.31
Week2...................477900......7......7.39......71......0.52
Week3...................813300......8......8.28......72......0.89

Player2..............DMI...Official GS...Est GS...Prev week mins...Change
Week5(purchase)...163500......6 6.44......67
Week6....................658200......8 8.92......62......2.48
Week7....................678200......9 8.96......85......0.04
Week8....................322400......8 8.00......65......-0.96
Week9....................677300......9 8.96......62......0.96
Week10...................681700......9 8.96......70......0.00
Week11...................680800......9 8.96......64......0.00
Week12...................412700......8 8.35......61......-0.61
Week13...................684400......8 8.97......55......0.62
Week14 683500......7 8.97......46......0.00

Week1(reset).........192000......7......6.96......32......-2.01
Week2....................358200......8......8.15......73......1.19
Week3....................278600......7......7.76......67......-0.39

This is a cool way to break it down. Thank you for sharing this.
So, let's see here, as far as the disconnect goes, I don't see it on player one in week 12. From my experience and based on forum discussions, 7 and 8 GS ratings have sub-levels, and 9 is a cap. If you're at 9, you are maxed out. This is all reflected in the DMI. In week 12 at 8 GS, it just looks like you're riding in the mid-range for your player at 8 GS.

Week 14 is in that funky place where at the end of the last week of the season all GS resets to 7, but DMI doesn't reset for several days while all the roster updates are made. I'm pretty sure that's what is happening here in both cases. Week 10 on player 2 looks like a regular 9 GS with a slight drop in skills/stamina since week 7 (you can see a slight increase in skills/stamina in week 10).

As far as GS changes, let me apply my probabilities to player 1 and see how they line up.
Week 6: GS stayed even at 7 with 78 mins - 44% chance of staying at 7 (not too crazy)
Week 7: +1 to 8 after 94 minutes - I have no data in this sample
Week 8: Stayed even at 8 with 63 mins - 45% chance of this, okay
Week 9: Jumped to 9 after 63 mins - 42% chance of this, seems okay
Week 10: Stayed at 9 after 83 mins - 36% chance of this, kind of lucky, but not too weird
Week 11: Dropped to 8 after 79 mins - 46% chance, so not unlikely
Week 12: Stayed at 8 with 65 mins - 48% chance of this, so seems good
Week 13: Dropped to 7 with 84 mins - 43% chance of this
Week 14: Looks like a pop to 8 (based on DMI) with 61 minutes - 63% chance, nicely done.

Last edited by Iguanadon Joe at 5/18/2015 10:50:46 AM

My week1 is the GS in the first week of competitive games. Week14 is the day before game-2 in the finals, so yeah you're right since the GS formally resets during the offseason calculations right after the finals, while both GS and DMI reset again on the following Thursday.

I had a mistake in the numbers on player2, now there are no inconsistencies. I have updated my post.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/18/2015 12:56:02 PM