BB-Charles kommentoi valmentajan vaikutusta ottelun aikana eräässä järjestössä:
Superfly Guy:
any other theories why i could be getting off to some pretty sluggish starts?
Perhaps because you're submitting a poor set of tactics? *ducks*
Your coach looks at what's happening on the floor and makes adjustments. If, for example, you play a 2-3 zone against a team that's taking only outside shots, over the course of the game you'll start adjusting to put more and more of your defensive focus outside. As with anything else, each of these adjustments carries a penalty, so you're still worse off than if you had arrived at the same place by starting with an outside-based defense.
Anyway, if you're starting off very poorly, one possibility is that your tactics are often poorly suited to your opponent, and that you need your coach to bail you out before you'll start playing better.
Another possibility (again related to adjustments) is that your offense isn't as good as your coach hoped. In the halfcourt set, you keep looking for shots and you take one whenever the guy with the ball thinks the shot is good enough to attempt. For example (these numbers aren't quite right, but as an example) your coach might teach in practice that you need to shoot around 30% to take a 3 pointer early in the shot clock, or 50% for an inside shot. If a player looks at a 3 pointer and thinks he has a 30% chance to make it, he'll take it (by "thinks he has, this is one of the places experience comes into play -- an experienced player does a better job of knowing how good the shot really is and how it'll compare to things later in the shot clock). If you're playing a fast-paced offense, maybe you only need a 25% chance to make the 3 for it to be worth taking; if you can get it off, you'll try it. A patient offense might want a 40% chance to make it early in the shot clock. As you get later in the shot clock, the threshold drops and of course at the very end of the shot clock, you take whatever shot you're left with if you haven't already found something.
So, let's now say you end up matched up against a tough opponent. You're trying to take that 30% three, because that's what the coach expects. But in practice you can't find it -- the opponents are typically holding you to 10-25% opportunities. Early in the game, your coach thinks you'll eventually find those 30% threes, so you keep waiting for them and then late in the shot clock settle for whatever you can get (on average, in this model, a 17.5% three). However, your coach watches the game carefully, and as the game progresses it becomes pretty clear that you're not getting unlucky, their defense really is that good. So, your coach starts telling the players that if they see a 25% three, they should take it and not look for something better. Meaning you end up taking typically closer to a 25% three instead of closer to a 17.5% three as the game progresses.
What can you do about it? One option is to adjust the speed of your offense for the opponent you expect to play against - a more patient offense is going to search for better-than-average shots early in the game (good against a defense you expect to dominate) and a quicker offense will take worse-than-average shots early in the game (good against a strong defense where this happens to be the right call).
Having said that, it's also the case that as players get tired, their defense tends to suffer more quickly than their offense. So, you'll typically see the strongest defensive effort from a team at the start of the game, the start of the third quarter, and at the end of a close game (because all of the timeouts get them extra rest, although the end of a game also tends to feature more specialized plays drawn up out of timeouts with specific shooters in the game).
N.B. We've been thinking about making the speed of coach adjustments part of a coach that you actually hire (as a long-term thing, not soon). Thoughts?
Last edited by GM-WallyOop at 10/14/2009 11:03:58 AM