your analysis is good but partly flawed. i originally thought like you, but you can't deny the game income is tempting, and keeping an arena semi-full depends upon some decent performances.
I touched on this in my reply to Azariah (check out Postal's season 11 attendance), but with the amount of play available in ticket pricing, I think you could keep asses in seats no matter how much you're losing, and tweak a bit here and there to optimize income.
Also, you (and Toonces, if I'm interpreting him correctly) are planning to try and remain at least middling teams once you drop to dIII, whereas my model would have no notion whatsoever of winning for a few seasons at minimum. The idea came from both watching you and Postal blow up your teams in successive seasons, combined with a lot of talk on the forums in the vein of "if you don't think you can win the league, don't spend any money on players," which-- interpreted to the extreme-- means 15 teams every season are wasting money. I just crunched the numbers to see what could happen if you were to turn the waste into pure profit.