You are right to correct me, it is closer to 9 out of 10 times, but still a bit higher than that I think.
Hi all !
I'd like to add 70-75 minutes is out of the optimal range without a masseur imo.
The optimal spot is "around 55 minutes", this is from Charles or Forrest, I can't remember right now, and not from the famous italian study.
By misrepresentation, the 48 figure is sometimes used as a minimum for GS management. But 48 is a figure for training only.
Without a masseur, 40 minutes is not worse than 70 minutes and usually you won't have dramatic GS drops, I have tested this.
For myself, I use 43-67 as optimal range without a masseur, the closer to 55, the better.
With a masseur, add 5/6 minutes to the higher limit, again the closer to 60, the better.
I am not completely sure of the effect of a masseur on the lower limit, Gs seems to become more erratic so maybe the lower limit needs to be raised aswell.
Also, the notion and use of the "optimal range" must be properly understood.
Being constantly in the fringe of the range will have considerably worst results than constantly hitting the optimal spot.
The optimal range is a guide for a compromise between GS management and success on the court because most teams need to play their best players more than 55 minutes a week, otherwise what's the point of having good on-form players ?
This all needs to be put into perspective by the GM, better Gs helps winning games but to achieve better Gs, you need to limit the playing time of your stars and there is no point in looking for proficient GS if the guys don't play, even more when the common team in BB have under par subs. So it's all about equilibrium, temperance and compromise. It's sometimes advisable from a management point of view to break the range and accept a higher risk of drops. It's all choices.
If the goal is GS management at all cost then aim for around 55 minutes w/o a masseur and around 60 minutes with a masseur.
The optimal range IS NOT the optimal spot.
There is no point in discussing GS variations over one week. Gs is calculated over several weeks, anything less than 3 weeks of playing time is unusable to me and insufficent data.