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(41006.9) BB gives the answer

I read that post. It does not make it clear if the player is more or less likely to foul. It says he will be worse defensively - that's all.


Last edited by HeadPaperPusher at 8/4/2008 9:31:23 AM

(41006.9) BB gives the answer

I read that post. It does not make it clear if the player is more or less likely to foul. It says he will be worse defensively - that's all.

I agree. The reason that the defender is weaker defensively is that he is not playing as aggressively in order to avoid fouls. Though on the other hand, a smart offense may attack a defensive weakness, whether it a player who is in foul trouble, or his less adept replacement.

But it is possible that it is a mismatch in skills that increases the chance of a foul. A weaker defender might be more likely to foul a good scorer. After all, a good defender (a) stops his player from scoring - not by giving him an easy 2 points from the FT line. A weaker defender is late getting into position, or fouling on a steal attempt.

So the GE should lessen the defensive effectiveness of players in foul trouble, which will increase the chance of a substitute being brought in. But it should also decrease the chance of additional fouls occuring - unless the player is involved in more situations where his man is shooting. That is the fouls/shot probability might decrease, but the number of shots attempted by the opposite player may increase.