So I think you certainly underestimate the reduce of the luck factor you're talking about.
Maybe... It is still luck, no matter if you spend $0 or $40,000, though. For two reasons:
-your league draft might suck, so even if you get great information on the best players, your draft will still suck
-you might spend $40,000, only to scout the worst players in the draft.
I think you only have to look at the last 2 seasons of drafts in Canada's top division to see the luck factor. Generally, no one in Naismith spends money on scouting. In season 8, I invested max value every week, had a high draft pick, but still could not take advantage. That was because 1) I received poor info from my scouts and 2) the draft class sucked.
In season 9, the Naismith draft was killer. One guy drafted two top prospects (mostly because no one else scouted but he still had to get lucky and get the info for those 2 guys).
Run of the Mill Canadian Manager