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Game Shape Anomaly

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242043.29 in reply to 242043.8
Date: 5/29/2013 6:44:13 AM
rimmers
II.3
Overall Posts Rated:
483483
Second Team:
Redbacks
the likelihood (only) drops to around 40%. it is still positive (likely) to produce an increase, and two weeks running -- i have no skills at statistics -- but wouldn't that make very likely to produce an increase?


I disagree. 40% chance is not likely, it is below 50%, therefore less likely to produce an increase. And therefore the most likely outcome happened, no pop.

This Post:
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242043.30 in reply to 242043.29
Date: 5/29/2013 6:25:33 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
485485
ok, this is why i was always flunking math classes . . .

then, according to your statement, if i do stamina training a third week, then his chances of rising a level is even less!

i suppose my problem is saying "likely", as though it were chance. i think it is, rather, the result of work (minutes played) -- sort of like if i pile sand up, the sand is very likely to form a bigger pile with each shovelful. the chart actually relates the average rise (or fall) as a function of minutes played. the average between 40+ minutes and a bit under 80 minutes is a positive increase in GS. if my player's minutes were within that range, and it was, for two weeks running, i was suggesting, awkwardly, that if such minutes produce a positive increase once, then a second time with minutes within those limits should be that much more likely to produce an increase. i suppose i could start to mumble at this point about sublevels, but in my colloquial formulation, i would say that "the odds are of an increase are pretty high" based on the information on the graph.

but apparently he has a deep bone bruise on his knee and is going to be hobbled through the playoffs, no matter how many minutes i get out of him.

This Post:
11
242043.31 in reply to 242043.28
Date: 5/29/2013 6:41:17 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
6868
I agree there's some randomness involved, but as long as I'm able to hit the ranges I've figured out per player, I've never had a problem other than wavering between "strong" and "proficient", which isn't a back breaker.

I've noticed the same thing relating to stamina. There seems to be something similar in substitution patterns as well- whenever I have a backup covering two spots, he invariably subs in for the lower stamina player more, regardless of their relative skill level. Likewise, when I play with a unique backup at each position, the players with lower stamina get subbed out more frequently than my high stamina guys. I can't imagine they'd have that happen in-game without game shape being in part by stamina.