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In my experience Career Extension trainers do have an impact. I have a 40 yr old player on my team with a TSP in the mid 80's. He's lost 10 TSP from his age 38 season until now (all with a Career Extension trainer).

Over that time he's transitioned from a starting caliber SF to a backup PG based on which skills have dropped.

Yes they work. But like everything else in BB, the spec is a gambling. I have a 38y/o player and until the age of 36 he had almost no downs thanks to a lv 6 career coach. After I switched to a lv 4 career coach he had more downs. Today he had his 8th double down and reached 100 TSP.

I cannot find the thread where it was mentioned. It was already 8 or 9 years ago. But if my memory doesn't fail me there was a post by a BB about the career coach. If I recall correct, you have a chance of 25%, that at the training update no negative effect occures --> career spec kicks in. If the 75% happen, your player will receive a decrease of skill(s) (visible or not). But at this point the level of the coach kicks in. Lv 1 will have a higher skill loss than lv4 and this one higher than lv 7.
So a lv 7 career coach won't change the possibility of a drop in skills, but he will reduce the speed of decline.
Unfortunately I cannot find the bookmark... maybe someone else has a link.

In the game manual (or as i remember it) it is stated that the specialties are not affected by the level of your staff, so either that is a coincidence or the manual (or I) is flat out wrong !

The usual doctrine was that the level of staff makes no difference in regard to specialties.

Yes. All 7 levels have would have the same speciality: 25%(?) chance to neutralize the skill down

Like I said, I read something about the specialities years ago. I will search the forums and my own copies from interesting posts and see if I can find anything on it. I know exactly that this question was asked to Marin. But Charles or Forrester were the ones who posted something.

Yes. I searched the forums for almost two hours and found it:

(203810.34)
The user csanyes was also known as Raymund (he was even BB-Raymund for some time as far as I know) at the time of the post. Later a former GM and MOD (Crazy-Eye) links this post in another thread: (212072.6)

There is the difference between the spec (all levels have the same on) and than the influence of the skill during the training update.

Very clear. It is good to have some certainties in this game!

And the biggest certainty is that there is still going to be lots of randomness in the things that can be random.

I had two interior players who each turned 33 last season, of approximately similar skill levels. One of the two has had one drop in these 18 or so weeks, in passing. The other lost three levels (one double drop) in rebounding and another in jump shot in several weeks time, but was brave enough to volunteer to play for another team this season so I can't really ascertain his current status.

Yes. I searched the forums for almost two hours and found it:

(203810.34)
The user csanyes was also known as Raymund (he was even BB-Raymund for some time as far as I know) at the time of the post. Later a former GM and MOD (Crazy-Eye) links this post in another thread: (212072.6)

There is the difference between the spec (all levels have the same on) and than the influence of the skill during the training update.

Its weird that he says "the level of the staff member does not impact the effectiveness of the specialty" but then appears to contradict that by saying trainers with higher levels reduce the value of the drops.

I think what he actually means is that if you were actually training an old player only then would the trainer level reduce the drop and that would be because of the small amount of training gain the player receives.