I think the sample size needs to be bigger...
It's funny, I was just about to argue on this, but I checked my regular season games for this season and found that in 8 games, the winning team had more fouls 4 times, the losing team 3 times, and teams equal fouls once. However, I did notice that in the one game with a huge difference in number of fouls, the winning team won.
A few things to consider:
- When a team is losing in the final minute or two, that team fouls a lot (and probably still loses, adding to the "loser's foul count")
- Perhaps fouling is a good strategy when the opposition shoots free throws poorly. A study on fouls should distinguish between the more competitive leagues and lower leagues, assuming that older teams have more developed players who shoot free throws better, and fouling may lead more often to losing. On the other hand, more advanced teams may have better depth, so getting into foul trouble is less of an issue for those teams and fouling is less likely to lead to a loss than for newer teams with poor depth.
- How often does a foul lead to an injury? Something to ponder that may make fouling affective...
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