BuzzerBeater Forums

Can you tell me the probability that a single rookie has 4-5 star ability and 5 star potential, and the probability of whether the rookie has ATG potential?

If you have the above data, combined with the number of real players and robots in a country, you can use statistics to directly calculate the confidence interval to see if the number of ATGs obtained by the United States is abnormal.

I believe the BB team does not want to be perceived as giving the United States an unfair competitive advantage.

Meanwhile Italy

Thanks Perpete!

Question to Marin and Justin...

Are potentials on draftees defined or related in any way by Gaussian function?

I don't see how this data is relevant to the conversation. What is relevant is the amount of active players generated this season. Players who can be bought, sold and trained. The relevant data is as follows:

The top 9 counties with most active users excluding USA (China, Deutschland, Espana, France, Hellas, Italia, Lietuva, Poland, Turkey) had a total of 2083 active 5-star potential draftees generated. 0.28 5-star draftees per user. 19 of those were ATGs. That makes roughly 1 in a 100 which confirms the popular perception that ATG is visualized for players with 10.98 and 10.99 potential.

USA had 306 active 5-star potential draftees generated (this is absolutely consistent, 0.26 per user). 9 of those were ATGs. The chances of this happening are 0.29% or once in 345 seasons. That's what the facts are, no implications. All I can say is congratz!

EDIT: Knowing now that the Gaussian function is used changes those numbers significantly. It would seem that all 10.9+ potential players are visualized as ATGs. Depending on exact implementation, the chances increase to ~2% or once in 50 seasons.

@Perpete: I posted here before reading all new messages in the thread. Please move this to a relevant thread if you feel like it.

What bothers me much more is that I have read several times now how these recent changes are a great thing for smaller nations.

No, they are not!

What happens now is that big nations obviously get more ATG players each season (almost all relevant, thanks to the 19yo boost), while smaller nations get one in 4-5-6-7 seasons...

And no, the ~0.5 potential level which the ATGs have over the HoFs on average is not a big deal. What is a big deal is that the owners of those players know exactly how good their player can become straight away, as opposed to spending 10+ seasons training a player having zero guarantees whether the player is a 10.01 or a 10.97... This makes a huge difference when a nation has a limited number of active managers, who can train players efficiently and keep them in good GS.

Last edited by mink0ff at 3/26/2024 6:05:43 PM