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U21 Consolation Tournament -- Season 37

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From: FurY

This Post:
11
284770.36 in reply to 284770.35
Date: 2/15/2017 5:28:35 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
109109
Ironic that you chose Phyrric, because thats exactly what i accused our u21 manager the year we were in consolation, Phyr, of not being mindful of. I also suggested that tough was not wary of Normal's last worlds for the US, and several times in round 1 i begged for a normal to be used. I was too critical after the fact i believe, but i don't take back what I believed at that point in time.

I think that each nation has their own goals. I'm not going to suggest that Cletus that is running Canada doesn't want to win it all, but I think last worlds he probably had a goal that was to qualify for worlds through the repecharge and make it to the second round given that they hadn't made it to round 1 of the worlds in quite some time, and hadn't made it to round 2 in even longer (if ever, didn't look that far back). If i were in his shoes in worlds season 35, i would've used normal a few times in round 1 to ensure that i made it into round 2, even if i was riding a 1-2 or 0-3 record in.

Nobody is going to really remember whether or not the Netherlands got eliminated or advanced in the consolation tournament, because not too many care about winning the best of the rest tournament. So why wouldn't the Netherlands take the opportunity to say "hey, we've got a once in a lifetime opportunity to knock the 2nd best ranked team in the u21 worlds out of the consolation tournament with little long term downside". That win right there could mean a lot for people in that country, because now they feel like if they give it their all, they might be able to compete with the best teams. They might get 2 or 3 people from the Netherlands that now are willing to invest time in the u21 efforts knowing they could turn into Estonia or the Ukraine.

While it's hard to dismiss the TIE from italy here as a strategy that they should not have gone with (I think it was the right call), after analyzing their team composition and the Netherlands to this point, i feel as if i am compelled to believe that Italy slept a little bit on this matchup. The Netherlands has been running 3-2 a lot, and has defaulted to neutral or outside offenses. Running the generic LI without considering how to stop their PG from distributing the ball to others in motion was not the best strategy, nor was going with your bigs at SF. I think had you played a guard at SF or played your best OD at their point of distribution might have eliminated the high opportunity chances. You made the same mistake many of the power nations make every now and again against the underdogs. In this particular case, you were probably very unlucky with regards to the anticipated outcome, but the chance was always there. If you need proof of that, look at your game against Finland in the Euro's.

Last edited by FurY at 2/15/2017 5:29:49 PM

From: Lemonshine

To: FurY
This Post:
00
284770.37 in reply to 284770.36
Date: 2/15/2017 7:36:16 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
14901490
You may be right but to me last 32 or last 16 won't make much of a difference both in ranking or definition of success. Which is why no team going seriously for the B3 was ever normalling a league game. At worst you Normal and hope you get lucky. It's just that Motion with those ratings and stats just does not cut it, as one can also see in the losses they had in the round robin.

without considering how to stop their PG from distributing the ball to others in motion
not sure what point you're trying to make but that PG had 4 assists to the PF player, 1 to the C, 1 to the SF and 1 to the SG. That's 5 assists to big men. Considering the defensive ratings the guards Italy probably do have 14 or 15 OD across the 1-3 positions (maybe 13 at SF), which is in fact reflected in Holland's PP100 ratings (53-67-58). Besides the SF Italy used is probably in the PF formula because of a hole in some outside skills to be in the SG salary formula but looking at his stats he must have pretty reasonable OD and balanced skills if he's averaging 1 steal per game and 3.1 assists in 34 minutes playing at PG in D3 Italy. 13 OD 12 IS will fall in the PF salary formula in most cases.


In respect of the loss to Finland in the Euros: Finland does have a good team and they have been ranking higher than England until last season (England improved dramatically in the rankings thanks to the victory in the consolation tournament), both Innes and the starting PG fouled out and statistically the teams were very close. This game does not bother me in the slightest, although the number of fouls on both sides was very high and it affected the result, but I'd consider Finland the underdogs only because England was playing at home, not because they are a vastly inferior team.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 2/15/2017 7:47:47 PM

From: FurY

This Post:
00
284770.38 in reply to 284770.37
Date: 2/15/2017 11:49:52 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
109109
wasn't looking at England versus Finland, i was looking at Finland versus Italy. I think that it's really hard to put Finland or England on equal terms with Italy if we're being fair at all. They won in an upset.

4 assists to the PF, 1 to the C, 1 to the SF, and 1 to the SG were made assists. How many were missed is really the question.

Once the ball gets distributed to a shooter who attempts a shot, it's solely on the shooter.

This Post:
11
284770.40 in reply to 284770.34
Date: 2/16/2017 3:40:23 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
11011101
Nope, by outcome shitty I mean that the outcome is ridiculous.
I won matches in which I should have lost by numbers, that's shitty too. Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining or whatsoever about the match, the fact we lost is just annoying but I would have said the same even with the opposite result+value+ratings.
We're talking about different things I assume. If your point is only to say "I like that weaker team can have by effort the chance to win against stronger teams" I can say even that I agree, not mostly but it's something sport-related.
If you see that this match ended like this rightly (speaking on the GE point of view, so ratings, statistics, matchups...) because of the CT/TIE I disagree.

This Post:
11
284770.42 in reply to 284770.40
Date: 2/16/2017 4:36:42 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
327327
The title of this topic "U21 Consolation Tournament -- Season 37" is misleading. I haven't read anything about the tournament. I heaven't read any basketball reviews of matches. I haven't read any previews of the upcoming rounds. I also haven't read any congratulations to the Dutch U21 team.

Basically, nothing about the U21 Consolation Tournament.

What I did read was math and statistics problems. I suggest to those not able to handle unsolvable math problems, to go back to reading math books, there you will always find the solution to a problem.

Thank you for congratulating our U21 coach Jeründerbar for this historic upset. One of the greatest upsets in the history of the U21 Consolation tournament to stay on topic. We appreciate it! ;)

From: Oranjeman

This Post:
00
284770.44 in reply to 284770.43
Date: 2/16/2017 5:29:50 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
327327
Hahaha, absolutely, or we might hire some... you know, Russian hackers or something

This Post:
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284770.45 in reply to 284770.39
Date: 2/16/2017 5:43:34 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
14901490
i hope you decide to follow your own advice here if you are in charge of a NT in the future and find your self in the same situation as the Netherlands did here.
I have no interest in taking charge of a NT, I have absolutely no interest to babysit or run after managers for GS, training, finding buyers for their players or whatever else and I think there are more qualified people to run NTs anyways.

I can assure you that if I'm the Netherlands I play some broken tactic (like Patient with offset scorer), double GDP and Normal hoping that I get some injury or foul out to go my way. I could perhaps understand your reasoning at the NT level but at the U21 level the difference between teams is not that massive (with some exception, like Italy in the consolation tournament), which means you're delusional if you think (5% chance to win R32 + 10% chance to win R16 + 5% to win R8) is better than (1% chance to win R32 + 40% to win R16 + 30% chance to win R8). CT every game with the probability above has about 0.025% of landing you in the Semis. Normalling with the probabilities above has 0.12% chance of landing you in the Semifinals, about 5 times higher.

This is the reasoning I would do, but to me achieving an extra round in a second tier competition would be a worthless achievement. Of course if Holland did throw away extra Enth in losses during the qualification phase. The only benefit of the consolation tournament is:
A) Winning it (it's still a trophy and at the U21 level many teams can win it)
B) Home court advantage for the following competition

That's about it. I'd rather have my U21 coach trying to go as far as he possibly can, not settle for mediocrity. Crunching in the first elimination game is just giving up from the get go.

But they still gets to play another playoff game that can lead to another small drop in the rankings. This can lead to easier opponents next season. Not really something that will hurt them imo.
Elaborate please. I think qualification groups strength is random, but perhaps you can show us some post by BBs where it says they are seeded from the best to the worst ranking.

Even if you're right and they are seeded (which in the 30s and 40s I do not believe), I'd take the chance of playing a few extra games than winning the first and having next to no chance of progressing further to improve my team's ranking by 1 or 2.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 2/16/2017 6:21:32 AM

This Post:
11
284770.46 in reply to 284770.42
Date: 2/16/2017 6:19:36 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
14901490
What I did read was math and statistics problems.
What you read were math and statistics explanation of why the GE produced a result contrary to logic. I suggest if you cannot handle the truth that statistics show us, either provide evidence of how it all makes sense in basketball terms or get or take your own suggestion and read some math books: no need for stochastic calculus, you just need arithmetic!

I also haven't read any congratulations to the Dutch U21 team.
Thank you for congratulating our U21 coach Jeründerbar for this historic upset. One of the greatest upsets in the history of the U21 Consolation tournament to stay on topic. We appreciate it! ;)
I wouldn't congratulate Steven Bradbury for winning an Olympic gold, surely I shouldn't congratulate someone equally underserving in BB, would you?

It's like when Manon got outsmarted and lost to Wolph, but the latter still needed a healty dose of GE nonsense to win (back then there was no GDP either, so things are comparable).

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