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Free throws.... Do they matter?

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182775.38 in reply to 182775.37
Date: 5/3/2011 6:19:36 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
204204
I guess the formula for the probability of making a FT is:

(1-1/x)^2 where x is the FT skill with subskill.

This would yield the following probabilities:

atrocious: 0%
pitiful: 25%
awful: 44%
inept: 56%
mediocre: 64%
average: 69%
respectable: 73%
strong: 77%
proficient: 79%
prominent: 81%
...
legendary: 90%

fits pretty well with our observations, I think.

This Post:
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182775.39 in reply to 182775.38
Date: 5/3/2011 6:49:11 AM
Cruesli
DBA Pro A
Overall Posts Rated:
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Second Team:
The Milk
That's a nice formula. It underestimates it a little bit though, when you look at: (/community/forum/read.aspx?thread=179355&m=1).

You need a formula that would almost reach 100% when filling in x=20.

Last edited by Tesse at 5/3/2011 6:50:32 AM

Crunchy! If you eat fast enough
This Post:
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182775.40 in reply to 182775.39
Date: 5/3/2011 7:00:20 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
204204
Thank you. The formula in your link looks even better.

Still, if you see a player on the transfer market, it sure pays off to have a handy little formula that allows you to estimate what % of his FTs the player will make, and (1-1/x)^2 sure is a bit easier to calculate than that. But the logarithm formula is probably right.