experience helps your team pull trough against better teams, or in difficult games.
game shape is just the most important skill on a player for performance.
that's how I experienced it at least.
so to pick a player to play, yes game shape would be the more important factor.
It might make it so the game doesn't get to a difficult stadium.
if you play the lesser shape player, and the game gets hard because he performs less good, then his exp might save the day, but it's better to avoid having a hard game in the first place.
They are not your friends; they dispise you. I am the only one you can count on. Trust me.