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Quarters disparity

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292818.7 in reply to 292818.4
Date: 3/22/2018 1:16:44 AM
Edson Rush
II.3
Overall Posts Rated:
262262
But the game engine is supposed to be random. Players are just a bunch of numbers. And every aspect of a game that departs from randomness asks for an explanation.


Randomness does not mean you will always see uniform and regular results. In fact with true randomness, you would occasionally these kinds of strange games.

To give an example, if you flipped a coin 10 times, the chance of you getting heads all 10 times is very low. However, if you kept flipping the coin you would eventually get 10 heads in a row. Low probability events will eventually happen given enough trials.

This Post:
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292818.8 in reply to 292818.7
Date: 3/22/2018 2:49:09 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
15061506
Not to mention that in BB it seems that hot streaks are coded. It's like getting heads again had 60% chances instead of 50%, so ridicuolously long series and comebacks are actually very probable.

Leniwy, stary, wyliniały kocur. Czasem jeszcze zerknie na polskie tłumaczenia.
This Post:
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292818.11 in reply to 292818.9
Date: 3/22/2018 5:16:00 AM
Dynamo J. Hradec
První liga
Overall Posts Rated:
492492
I expected match with higher difference in your link, something like my match (97241715)

From: GM-hrudey

To: Siwy
This Post:
00
292818.12 in reply to 292818.8
Date: 3/22/2018 11:48:39 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
32293229
Not to mention that in BB it seems that hot streaks are coded. It's like getting heads again had 60% chances instead of 50%, so ridicuolously long series and comebacks are actually very probable.


Very hot streaks are somewhat common, and very cold streaks are pandemic.

This Post:
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292818.13 in reply to 292818.9
Date: 3/22/2018 5:41:01 PM
Edson Rush
II.3
Overall Posts Rated:
262262
You have to be a very patient man to get 10 heads in a row.


You're right, but think how many thousands of games are played every Saturday or Tuesday in BB. Most games will play out predictably but some of these games will have very irregular results.

In any case, in a quarter there are much more than 10 shots. So according to the law of large numbers, this quarters disparity shouldn't happen.


The law only provides a guarantee for an infinite number of trials. When number of trials are large but not infinite, there is still a chance that the observed results do not match the expected results.

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